WFO - TOP net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ADAK1 99 (142/144) 100 (144/144) 88 (127/144) 68 ( 98/144) 39 ( 56/144) 8 ( 12/144) 3 ( 5/144) under -4 under -10 under -13 under -18 under -14 over 2 over 2 9.0 -7.9 11.4 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BANK1 89 ( 58/ 65) 100 ( 65/ 65) 65 ( 42/ 65) 29 ( 19/ 65) 5 ( 3/ 65) 0 ( 0/ 65) 0 ( 0/ 65) over 6 under -10 over 10 over 21 over 20 over 10 over 5 11.7 8.9 14.2 10.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRK1 95 (143/150) 100 (226/226) 78 (117/150) 49 (111/226) 29 ( 43/150) 11 ( 24/226) 9 ( 14/150) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 over 1 under -4 under -1 under -4 3.3 -3.0 3.8 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVUK1 85 (122/143) 100 (143/143) 66 ( 95/143) 40 ( 57/143) 13 ( 18/143) 1 ( 2/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 10 under -10 over 9 over 10 over 12 over 9 over 5 9.3 6.4 10.0 6.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CHPK1 95 (147/154) 100 (156/156) 86 (133/154) 57 ( 89/156) 29 ( 44/154) 6 ( 10/156) 5 ( 7/154) spot-on 0 under -10 under -11 under -7 under -4 over 4 spot-on 0 5.1 -4.0 7.2 -5.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CNKK1 91 (138/152) 100 (155/155) 78 (119/152) 54 ( 84/155) 29 ( 44/152) 13 ( 20/155) 5 ( 7/152) over 4 under -10 under -3 under -4 under -4 under -3 spot-on 0 4.0 -2.9 4.8 -4.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CYCK1 91 (139/152) 100 (155/155) 72 (109/152) 54 ( 83/155) 35 ( 53/152) 18 ( 28/155) 13 ( 19/152) over 4 under -10 over 3 under -4 under -10 under -8 under -8 6.7 -4.7 7.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DELK1 100 (154/154) 100 (156/156) 86 (133/154) 63 ( 99/156) 27 ( 42/154) 15 ( 23/156) 9 ( 14/154) under -5 under -10 under -11 under -13 under -2 under -5 under -4 7.1 -7.1 8.2 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ENTK1 72 (104/144) 100 (144/144) 50 ( 72/144) 28 ( 40/144) 6 ( 8/144) 1 ( 1/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 23 under -10 over 25 over 22 over 19 over 9 over 4 16.0 13.1 17.0 13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FKFK1 93 (139/150) 100 (226/226) 76 (114/150) 52 (117/226) 18 ( 27/150) 9 ( 21/226) 5 ( 8/150) over 2 under -10 under -1 under -2 over 7 over 1 spot-on 0 3.3 -0.4 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTRK1 81 (116/143) 100 (143/143) 59 ( 84/143) 35 ( 50/143) 8 ( 11/143) 1 ( 2/143) 1 ( 1/143) over 14 under -10 over 16 over 15 over 17 over 9 over 4 12.1 9.3 13.4 9.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRTK1 91 ( 68/ 75) 100 ( 75/ 75) 77 ( 58/ 75) 48 ( 36/ 75) 28 ( 21/ 75) 16 ( 12/ 75) 8 ( 6/ 75) over 4 under -10 under -2 over 2 under -3 under -6 under -3 4.3 -2.6 4.6 -3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HBGK1 86 (131/152) 100 (228/228) 70 (107/152) 43 ( 98/228) 18 ( 28/152) 4 ( 9/228) 3 ( 5/152) over 9 under -10 over 5 over 7 over 7 over 6 over 2 6.6 3.7 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JNCK1 88 (123/140) 100 (140/140) 76 (107/140) 54 ( 75/140) 24 ( 34/140) 4 ( 5/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 7 under -10 under -1 under -4 over 1 over 6 over 3 4.6 0.3 4.4 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LAWK1 89 (127/143) 100 (143/143) 73 (105/143) 37 ( 53/143) 14 ( 20/143) 6 ( 8/143) 3 ( 5/143) over 6 under -10 over 2 over 13 over 11 over 4 over 2 6.9 4.0 8.0 4.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCPK1 90 (128/143) 100 (143/143) 68 ( 97/143) 41 ( 59/143) 20 ( 29/143) 4 ( 6/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 5 under -10 over 7 over 9 over 5 over 6 over 5 6.7 3.9 7.4 3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LISK1 86 (133/154) 100 (156/156) 76 (117/154) 49 ( 77/156) 28 ( 43/154) 15 ( 24/156) 5 ( 8/154) over 9 under -10 under -1 over 1 under -3 under -5 spot-on 0 4.1 -1.3 4.0 -3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNDK1 90 (137/153) 100 (181/181) 70 (107/153) 49 ( 89/181) 27 ( 41/153) 14 ( 26/181) 10 ( 16/153) over 5 under -10 over 5 over 1 under -2 under -4 under -5 4.6 -1.4 4.4 -2.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LNEK1 82 (125/153) 100 (181/181) 67 (102/153) 41 ( 74/181) 21 ( 32/153) 7 ( 12/181) 4 ( 6/153) over 13 under -10 over 8 over 9 over 4 over 3 over 1 6.9 4.0 6.8 2.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LWRK1 92 (132/143) 100 (143/143) 90 (128/143) 81 (116/143) 50 ( 71/143) 19 ( 27/143) 8 ( 11/143) over 3 under -10 under -15 under -31 under -25 under -9 under -3 13.7 -12.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MHKK1 80 (115/143) 100 (143/143) 69 ( 98/143) 47 ( 67/143) 16 ( 23/143) 3 ( 4/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 15 under -10 over 6 over 3 over 9 over 7 over 5 7.9 5.0 7.0 3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MPSK1 92 (132/144) 100 (144/144) 85 (122/144) 72 (103/144) 29 ( 42/144) 8 ( 11/144) 3 ( 5/144) over 3 under -10 under -10 under -22 under -4 over 2 over 2 7.6 -5.6 9.6 -8.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MRYK1 95 (145/152) 100 (228/228) 78 (118/152) 46 (105/228) 22 ( 34/152) 9 ( 21/228) 4 ( 6/152) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 over 4 over 3 over 1 over 1 3.1 -0.6 4.2 -1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MWCK1 75 ( 86/114) 100 (114/114) 63 ( 72/114) 40 ( 46/114) 29 ( 33/114) 13 ( 15/114) 6 ( 7/114) over 20 under -10 over 12 over 10 under -4 under -3 under -1 8.6 3.4 7.8 1.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLSK1 78 (112/144) 100 (144/144) 67 ( 96/144) 40 ( 58/144) 11 ( 16/144) 1 ( 2/144) 1 ( 1/144) over 17 under -10 over 8 over 10 over 14 over 9 over 4 10.3 7.4 10.2 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OTWK1 97 ( 83/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 86 ( 74/ 86) 57 ( 49/ 86) 24 ( 21/ 86) 15 ( 13/ 86) 8 ( 7/ 86) under -2 under -10 under -11 under -7 over 1 under -5 under -3 5.6 -5.3 6.8 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PXCK1 96 (148/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 46 ( 71/156) 22 ( 34/154) 6 ( 9/156) 5 ( 8/154) under -1 under -10 over 2 over 4 over 3 over 4 spot-on 0 3.4 0.3 4.6 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- QNMK1 50 ( 43/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 44 ( 38/ 86) 30 ( 26/ 86) 16 ( 14/ 86) 3 ( 3/ 86) 0 ( 0/ 86) over 45 under -10 over 31 over 20 over 9 over 7 over 5 18.1 15.3 15.4 11.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDNK1 91 (139/153) 100 (180/180) 71 (109/153) 43 ( 77/180) 25 ( 38/153) 7 ( 13/180) 4 ( 6/153) over 4 under -10 over 4 over 7 spot-on 0 over 3 over 1 4.1 1.3 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RDPK1 67 (101/150) 100 (226/226) 53 ( 80/150) 39 ( 88/226) 25 ( 38/150) 15 ( 34/226) 11 ( 16/150) over 28 under -10 over 22 over 11 spot-on 0 under -5 under -6 11.7 5.7 9.6 3.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RSSK1 89 (137/154) 100 (156/156) 73 (112/154) 44 ( 69/156) 25 ( 38/154) 9 ( 14/156) 5 ( 8/154) over 6 under -10 over 2 over 6 spot-on 0 over 1 spot-on 0 3.6 0.7 3.8 -0.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNCK1 90 (137/153) 100 (254/254) 67 (102/153) 45 (114/254) 26 ( 40/153) 18 ( 45/254) 10 ( 15/153) over 5 under -10 over 8 over 5 under -1 under -8 under -5 6.0 -0.9 6.4 -1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNDK1 81 (123/152) 100 (155/155) 68 (104/152) 54 ( 83/155) 38 ( 57/152) 12 ( 19/155) 9 ( 14/152) over 14 under -10 over 7 under -4 under -13 under -2 under -4 7.7 -1.7 7.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOPK1 99 (153/154) 100 (156/156) 81 (124/154) 47 ( 73/156) 27 ( 42/154) 12 ( 19/156) 5 ( 8/154) under -4 under -10 under -6 over 3 under -2 under -2 spot-on 0 3.9 -3.0 4.6 -3.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TPAK1 89 (127/143) 100 (143/143) 71 (101/143) 45 ( 64/143) 23 ( 33/143) 7 ( 10/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 6 under -10 over 4 over 5 over 2 over 3 over 5 5.0 2.1 4.8 0.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TSCK1 98 (141/144) 100 (144/144) 89 (128/144) 68 ( 98/144) 16 ( 23/144) 6 ( 8/144) 3 ( 4/144) under -3 under -10 under -14 under -18 over 9 over 4 over 2 8.6 -4.3 11.0 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WMGK1 67 ( 96/143) 100 (143/143) 52 ( 75/143) 31 ( 44/143) 7 ( 10/143) 2 ( 3/143) 0 ( 0/143) over 28 under -10 over 23 over 19 over 18 over 8 over 5 15.9 13.0 15.6 11.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WSHK1 92 (140/152) 100 (228/228) 74 (113/152) 60 (136/228) 33 ( 50/152) 14 ( 33/228) 9 ( 13/152) over 3 under -10 over 1 under -10 under -8 under -4 under -4 5.7 -4.6 6.6 -6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================