WFO - SGF net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIGM7 97 (134/138) 100 (138/138) 86 (118/138) 64 ( 89/138) 34 ( 47/138) 15 ( 21/138) 9 ( 13/138) under -2 under -10 under -11 under -14 under -9 under -5 under -4 7.9 -7.9 9.8 -9.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMZM7 99 ( 85/ 86) 100 ( 86/ 86) 95 ( 82/ 86) 67 ( 58/ 86) 23 ( 20/ 86) 7 ( 6/ 86) 1 ( 1/ 86) under -4 under -10 under -20 under -17 over 2 over 3 over 4 8.6 -6.0 10.4 -8.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FSKK1 88 (123/140) 100 (140/140) 66 ( 92/140) 41 ( 57/140) 17 ( 24/140) 7 ( 10/140) 2 ( 3/140) over 7 under -10 over 9 over 9 over 8 over 3 over 3 7.0 4.1 7.8 3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTNK1 93 (130/140) 100 (140/140) 71 (100/140) 42 ( 59/140) 14 ( 19/140) 2 ( 3/140) 0 ( 0/140) over 2 under -10 over 4 over 8 over 11 over 8 over 5 6.9 4.0 8.2 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HTNM7 90 (126/140) 100 (140/140) 72 (101/140) 50 ( 70/140) 18 ( 25/140) 7 ( 10/140) 4 ( 5/140) over 5 under -10 over 3 spot-on 0 over 7 over 3 over 1 4.1 1.3 4.6 0.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HZLM7 96 (146/152) 100 (229/229) 89 (136/152) 75 (171/229) 45 ( 68/152) 24 ( 54/229) 13 ( 19/152) under -1 under -10 under -14 under -25 under -20 under -14 under -8 13.1 -13.1 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JRMM7 98 (149/152) 100 (229/229) 88 (134/152) 63 (145/229) 28 ( 43/152) 14 ( 32/229) 11 ( 16/152) under -3 under -10 under -13 under -13 under -3 under -4 under -6 7.4 -7.4 8.6 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDM7 91 (127/140) 100 (140/140) 76 (107/140) 46 ( 64/140) 15 ( 21/140) 7 ( 10/140) 4 ( 5/140) over 4 under -10 under -1 over 4 over 10 over 3 over 1 4.7 1.6 5.6 1.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RBXM7 89 ( 93/104) 100 (104/104) 85 ( 88/104) 70 ( 73/104) 49 ( 51/104) 21 ( 22/104) 11 ( 11/104) over 6 under -10 under -10 under -20 under -24 under -11 under -6 12.4 -10.7 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TBVM7 96 ( 48/ 50) 100 ( 50/ 50) 74 ( 37/ 50) 60 ( 30/ 50) 46 ( 23/ 50) 24 ( 12/ 50) 16 ( 8/ 50) under -1 under -10 over 1 under -10 under -21 under -14 under -11 9.7 -9.4 11.2 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================