Forecast Group - OSAGE (OSG) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BLRM7 95 (118/124) 100 (124/124) 78 ( 97/124) 55 ( 68/124) 21 ( 26/124) 3 ( 4/124) 2 ( 3/124) spot-on 0 under -10 under -3 under -5 over 4 over 7 over 3 4.6 -0.6 5.8 -1.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CMZM7 99 ( 69/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 96 ( 67/ 70) 71 ( 50/ 70) 24 ( 17/ 70) 9 ( 6/ 70) 1 ( 1/ 70) under -4 under -10 under -21 under -21 over 1 over 1 over 4 8.9 -7.1 10.8 -10.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FSKK1 90 (112/124) 100 (124/124) 71 ( 88/124) 44 ( 55/124) 19 ( 23/124) 7 ( 9/124) 2 ( 3/124) over 5 under -10 over 4 over 6 over 6 over 3 over 3 5.3 2.4 5.8 1.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTNK1 95 (118/124) 100 (124/124) 76 ( 94/124) 45 ( 56/124) 14 ( 17/124) 2 ( 2/124) 0 ( 0/124) spot-on 0 under -10 under -1 over 5 over 11 over 8 over 5 5.7 2.6 7.0 2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HTNM7 92 (114/124) 100 (124/124) 77 ( 95/124) 54 ( 67/124) 19 ( 24/124) 8 ( 10/124) 4 ( 5/124) over 3 under -10 under -2 under -4 over 6 over 2 over 1 4.0 -0.6 4.8 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NVDM7 94 (117/124) 100 (124/124) 83 (103/124) 51 ( 63/124) 16 ( 20/124) 8 ( 10/124) 4 ( 5/124) over 1 under -10 under -8 under -1 over 9 over 2 over 1 4.6 -0.9 6.0 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SCZM7 93 ( 65/ 70) 100 ( 70/ 70) 84 ( 59/ 70) 59 ( 41/ 70) 27 ( 19/ 70) 9 ( 6/ 70) 6 ( 4/ 70) over 2 under -10 under -9 under -9 under -2 over 1 under -1 4.9 -4.0 6.2 -5.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- URHM7 95 (118/124) 100 (124/124) 81 (100/124) 69 ( 86/124) 30 ( 37/124) 8 ( 10/124) 6 ( 7/124) spot-on 0 under -10 under -6 under -19 under -5 over 2 under -1 6.1 -5.6 8.4 -7.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================