Forecast Group - NOPLAT (NPL) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BGPN1 61 ( 76/125) 100 (131/131) 57 ( 71/125) 49 ( 64/131) 42 ( 53/125) 39 ( 51/131) 33 ( 41/125) over 34 under -10 over 18 over 1 under -17 under -29 under -28 19.6 -4.4 15.0 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BOSW4 80 (100/125) 100 (146/146) 78 ( 98/125) 69 (101/146) 54 ( 68/125) 48 ( 70/146) 36 ( 45/125) over 15 under -10 under -3 under -19 under -29 under -38 under -31 20.7 -16.4 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CPRW4 78 ( 98/125) 100 (140/140) 78 ( 98/125) 76 (107/140) 73 ( 91/125) 67 ( 94/140) 54 ( 67/125) over 17 under -10 under -3 under -26 under -48 under -57 under -49 30.0 -25.1 28.8 -28.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ECRW4 94 (118/125) 100 (136/136) 92 (115/125) 90 (123/136) 78 ( 97/125) 65 ( 88/136) 47 ( 59/125) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -40 under -53 under -55 under -42 31.1 -30.9 35.0 -35.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FLAW4 84 (105/125) 100 (146/146) 79 ( 99/125) 71 (104/146) 58 ( 73/125) 48 ( 70/146) 38 ( 48/125) over 11 under -10 under -4 under -21 under -33 under -38 under -33 21.4 -18.3 21.2 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNW4 68 ( 85/125) 100 (140/140) 66 ( 83/125) 61 ( 85/140) 50 ( 63/125) 38 ( 53/140) 29 ( 36/125) over 27 under -10 over 9 under -11 under -25 under -28 under -24 19.1 -8.9 16.6 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HANW4 92 (115/125) 100 (146/146) 84 (105/125) 77 (112/146) 62 ( 77/125) 49 ( 71/146) 33 ( 41/125) over 3 under -10 under -9 under -27 under -37 under -39 under -28 21.9 -21.0 24.4 -24.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HENN1 58 ( 73/125) 100 (139/139) 57 ( 71/125) 49 ( 68/139) 41 ( 51/125) 40 ( 56/139) 30 ( 37/125) over 37 under -10 over 18 over 1 under -16 under -30 under -25 19.6 -3.6 15.0 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEWN1 78 ( 98/125) 100 (131/131) 77 ( 96/125) 71 ( 93/131) 62 ( 78/125) 53 ( 70/131) 49 ( 61/125) over 17 under -10 under -2 under -21 under -37 under -43 under -44 24.9 -20.0 22.6 -22.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LLRW4 84 (105/125) 100 (146/146) 80 (100/125) 67 ( 98/146) 54 ( 68/125) 40 ( 58/146) 33 ( 41/125) over 11 under -10 under -5 under -17 under -29 under -30 under -28 18.6 -15.4 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LSON1 76 ( 95/125) 100 (131/131) 70 ( 87/125) 63 ( 82/131) 57 ( 71/125) 47 ( 61/131) 39 ( 49/125) over 19 under -10 over 5 under -13 under -32 under -37 under -34 21.4 -14.6 19.4 -17.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICN1 59 ( 74/125) 100 (131/131) 51 ( 64/125) 47 ( 61/131) 34 ( 42/125) 30 ( 39/131) 17 ( 21/125) over 36 under -10 over 24 over 3 under -9 under -20 under -12 16.3 1.7 13.2 -2.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MNTN1 46 ( 57/125) 100 (131/131) 42 ( 53/125) 34 ( 45/131) 30 ( 37/125) 25 ( 33/131) 17 ( 21/125) over 49 under -10 over 33 over 16 under -5 under -15 under -12 20.0 8.0 15.8 3.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NGTC2 90 (112/125) 100 (146/146) 84 (105/125) 79 (115/146) 70 ( 87/125) 64 ( 94/146) 49 ( 61/125) over 5 under -10 under -9 under -29 under -45 under -54 under -44 28.0 -26.6 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NPTN1 85 (106/125) 100 (131/131) 81 (101/125) 76 ( 99/131) 69 ( 86/125) 54 ( 71/131) 44 ( 55/125) over 10 under -10 under -6 under -26 under -44 under -44 under -39 25.6 -22.7 26.0 -26.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ORIW4 75 ( 94/125) 100 (140/140) 75 ( 94/125) 74 (104/140) 67 ( 84/125) 57 ( 80/140) 46 ( 58/125) over 20 under -10 spot-on 0 under -24 under -42 under -47 under -41 26.3 -20.6 24.6 -24.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SINW4 92 (115/125) 100 (136/136) 84 (105/125) 71 ( 97/136) 60 ( 75/125) 55 ( 75/136) 40 ( 50/125) over 3 under -10 under -9 under -21 under -35 under -45 under -35 22.6 -21.7 24.0 -24.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAW4 86 (107/125) 100 (146/146) 73 ( 91/125) 62 ( 91/146) 50 ( 63/125) 40 ( 59/146) 26 ( 33/125) over 9 under -10 over 2 under -12 under -25 under -30 under -21 15.6 -12.4 15.8 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WODW4 95 (119/125) 100 (146/146) 91 (114/125) 81 (118/146) 70 ( 87/125) 57 ( 83/146) 43 ( 54/125) spot-on 0 under -10 under -16 under -31 under -45 under -47 under -38 26.7 -26.7 29.8 -29.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================