Forecast Group - MIDDAK (MDT) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BREN8 72 (104/145) 100 (242/242) 63 ( 91/145) 54 (130/242) 26 ( 37/145) 29 ( 69/242) 10 ( 15/145) over 23 under -10 over 12 under -4 under -1 under -19 under -5 10.6 -0.6 9.2 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BVRN8 99 (143/145) 100 (183/183) 93 (135/145) 69 (126/183) 34 ( 50/145) 15 ( 28/183) 11 ( 16/145) under -4 under -10 under -18 under -19 under -9 under -5 under -6 10.1 -10.1 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BWSW4 96 (139/145) 100 (184/184) 94 (137/145) 89 (163/184) 72 (105/145) 38 ( 69/184) 18 ( 26/145) under -1 under -10 under -19 under -39 under -47 under -28 under -13 22.4 -22.4 28.6 -28.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EMSS2 94 (136/145) 100 (243/243) 87 (126/145) 76 (184/243) 52 ( 75/145) 27 ( 65/243) 14 ( 20/145) over 1 under -10 under -12 under -26 under -27 under -17 under -9 14.6 -14.3 18.4 -18.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FTHS2 90 (131/145) 100 (243/243) 79 (115/145) 68 (166/243) 29 ( 42/145) 33 ( 80/243) 16 ( 23/145) over 5 under -10 under -4 under -18 under -4 under -23 under -11 10.7 -9.3 11.8 -11.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIES2 89 (129/145) 100 (242/242) 79 (114/145) 62 (149/242) 41 ( 59/145) 36 ( 88/242) 27 ( 39/145) over 6 under -10 under -4 under -12 under -16 under -26 under -22 13.7 -12.0 13.6 -13.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLNS2 86 (124/145) 100 (243/243) 81 (117/145) 79 (191/243) 55 ( 80/145) 41 ( 99/243) 18 ( 26/145) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -29 under -30 under -31 under -13 18.3 -15.7 21.2 -21.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- REGN8 81 (117/145) 100 (242/242) 57 ( 83/145) 38 ( 93/242) 24 ( 35/145) 10 ( 23/242) 4 ( 6/145) over 14 under -10 over 18 over 12 over 1 spot-on 0 over 1 8.0 5.1 8.2 4.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RLGN8 82 (119/145) 100 (242/242) 70 (101/145) 46 (111/242) 36 ( 52/145) 20 ( 48/242) 21 ( 30/145) over 13 under -10 over 5 over 4 under -11 under -10 under -16 9.9 -3.6 8.0 -4.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SBFS2 97 (141/145) 100 (184/184) 89 (129/145) 75 (138/184) 50 ( 72/145) 26 ( 48/184) 17 ( 24/145) under -2 under -10 under -14 under -25 under -25 under -16 under -12 14.9 -14.9 18.0 -18.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WASS2 99 (143/145) 100 (243/243) 94 (136/145) 90 (218/243) 68 ( 99/145) 55 (133/243) 30 ( 44/145) under -4 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -43 under -45 under -25 26.6 -26.6 31.4 -31.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WHIS2 88 (128/145) 100 (242/242) 79 (115/145) 68 (164/242) 46 ( 67/145) 40 ( 96/242) 23 ( 33/145) over 7 under -10 under -4 under -18 under -21 under -30 under -18 15.4 -13.4 16.6 -16.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================