Forecast Group - LWRREP (LRP) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CNKK1 93 (127/136) 100 (139/139) 83 (113/136) 58 ( 80/139) 32 ( 44/136) 14 ( 20/139) 5 ( 7/136) over 2 under -10 under -8 under -8 under -7 under -4 spot-on 0 5.6 -5.0 7.4 -7.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CYCK1 93 (126/136) 100 (139/139) 77 (105/136) 59 ( 82/139) 39 ( 53/136) 20 ( 28/139) 14 ( 19/136) over 2 under -10 under -2 under -9 under -14 under -10 under -9 8.0 -7.4 9.0 -9.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GUIN1 92 (125/136) 100 (139/139) 79 (108/136) 58 ( 80/139) 38 ( 51/136) 16 ( 22/139) 4 ( 5/136) over 3 under -10 under -4 under -8 under -13 under -6 over 1 6.4 -5.3 8.2 -8.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HDYN1 91 (124/136) 100 (139/139) 75 (102/136) 50 ( 70/139) 29 ( 40/136) 12 ( 17/139) 7 ( 10/136) over 4 under -10 spot-on 0 spot-on 0 under -4 under -2 under -2 3.1 -2.0 3.2 -3.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVRN1 93 (125/135) 100 (137/137) 87 (117/135) 73 (100/137) 45 ( 61/135) 20 ( 27/137) 13 ( 17/135) over 2 under -10 under -12 under -23 under -20 under -10 under -8 12.1 -11.6 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SNDK1 82 (112/136) 100 (139/139) 72 ( 98/136) 56 ( 78/139) 40 ( 54/136) 14 ( 19/139) 10 ( 14/136) over 13 under -10 over 3 under -6 under -15 under -4 under -5 8.0 -3.4 7.6 -6.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================