WFO - GGW net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BCHM8 86 (166/192) 100 (206/206) 81 (155/192) 74 (152/206) 56 (107/192) 30 ( 61/206) 15 ( 29/192) over 9 under -10 under -6 under -24 under -31 under -20 under -10 15.7 -13.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBM8 86 ( 76/ 88) 100 ( 88/ 88) 85 ( 75/ 88) 78 ( 69/ 88) 73 ( 64/ 88) 60 ( 53/ 88) 48 ( 42/ 88) over 9 under -10 under -10 under -28 under -48 under -50 under -43 28.3 -25.7 29.2 -29.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DMRM8 90 (172/192) 100 (206/206) 86 (165/192) 78 (160/206) 64 (123/192) 46 ( 94/206) 33 ( 64/192) over 5 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -39 under -36 under -28 22.4 -21.0 24.8 -24.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLNM8 87 ( 94/108) 100 (108/108) 87 ( 94/108) 85 ( 92/108) 79 ( 85/108) 52 ( 56/108) 44 ( 47/108) over 8 under -10 under -12 under -35 under -54 under -42 under -39 28.6 -26.3 30.6 -30.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GLWM8 79 (152/192) 100 (265/265) 72 (138/192) 58 (154/265) 41 ( 79/192) 22 ( 59/265) 18 ( 35/192) over 16 under -10 over 3 under -8 under -16 under -12 under -13 11.1 -5.7 9.8 -8.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MALM8 79 (152/192) 100 (265/265) 76 (146/192) 56 (149/265) 48 ( 93/192) 23 ( 61/265) 21 ( 40/192) over 16 under -10 under -1 under -6 under -23 under -13 under -16 12.1 -7.6 10.6 -10.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MSBM8 94 (134/142) 100 (142/142) 91 (129/142) 85 (120/142) 76 (108/142) 65 ( 93/142) 52 ( 74/142) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -35 under -51 under -55 under -47 30.7 -30.4 33.4 -33.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NSHM8 84 (162/192) 100 (265/265) 79 (151/192) 74 (195/265) 53 (102/192) 35 ( 92/265) 24 ( 46/192) over 11 under -10 under -4 under -24 under -28 under -25 under -19 17.3 -14.1 18.2 -18.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLRM8 93 (179/192) 100 (265/265) 91 (174/192) 88 (233/265) 71 (136/192) 47 (125/265) 34 ( 66/192) over 2 under -10 under -16 under -38 under -46 under -37 under -29 25.4 -24.9 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SACM8 84 (161/192) 100 (258/258) 82 (157/192) 66 (169/258) 47 ( 91/192) 27 ( 70/258) 22 ( 42/192) over 11 under -10 under -7 under -16 under -22 under -17 under -17 14.3 -11.1 14.4 -14.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SIDM8 98 (106/108) 100 (108/108) 95 (103/108) 90 ( 97/108) 83 ( 90/108) 55 ( 59/108) 33 ( 36/108) under -3 under -10 under -20 under -40 under -58 under -45 under -28 29.1 -29.1 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TMPM8 82 (157/192) 100 (265/265) 76 (145/192) 69 (182/265) 51 ( 97/192) 28 ( 74/265) 20 ( 38/192) over 13 under -10 under -1 under -19 under -26 under -18 under -15 14.6 -10.9 14.8 -14.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPTM8 88 ( 77/ 88) 100 ( 88/ 88) 86 ( 76/ 88) 78 ( 69/ 88) 74 ( 65/ 88) 53 ( 47/ 88) 44 ( 39/ 88) over 7 under -10 under -11 under -28 under -49 under -43 under -39 26.7 -24.7 28.2 -28.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================