Forecast Group - ELPLAT (ELK) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ALDN1 49 ( 68/138) 100 (180/180) 46 ( 63/138) 37 ( 66/180) 10 ( 14/138) 5 ( 9/180) 0 ( 0/138) over 46 under -10 over 29 over 13 over 15 over 5 over 5 17.6 14.7 14.4 10.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ASLN1 97 (134/138) 100 (153/153) 88 (121/138) 70 (107/153) 46 ( 63/138) 12 ( 19/153) 6 ( 8/138) under -2 under -10 under -13 under -20 under -21 under -2 under -1 9.9 -9.9 13.2 -13.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BDYN1 70 ( 96/138) 100 (153/153) 64 ( 89/138) 50 ( 76/153) 32 ( 44/138) 17 ( 26/153) 15 ( 21/138) over 25 under -10 over 11 spot-on 0 under -7 under -7 under -10 10.0 0.3 7.0 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CLBN1 96 (132/138) 100 (180/180) 83 (115/138) 52 ( 93/180) 23 ( 32/138) 7 ( 13/180) 4 ( 5/138) under -1 under -10 under -8 under -2 over 2 over 3 over 1 3.9 -2.1 5.0 -3.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DNCN1 93 (128/138) 100 (153/153) 87 (120/138) 71 (108/153) 51 ( 70/138) 29 ( 45/153) 18 ( 25/138) over 2 under -10 under -12 under -21 under -26 under -19 under -13 14.7 -14.1 17.6 -17.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EWIN1 97 (134/138) 100 (192/192) 97 (134/138) 87 (167/192) 66 ( 91/138) 42 ( 81/192) 27 ( 37/138) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -37 under -41 under -32 under -22 23.7 -23.7 28.4 -28.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRIN1 92 (127/138) 100 (153/153) 91 (125/138) 72 (110/153) 54 ( 75/138) 31 ( 48/153) 20 ( 28/138) over 3 under -10 under -16 under -22 under -29 under -21 under -15 16.6 -15.7 19.6 -19.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GRNN1 99 (136/138) 100 (180/180) 92 (127/138) 71 (127/180) 38 ( 52/138) 12 ( 21/180) 5 ( 7/138) under -4 under -10 under -17 under -21 under -13 under -2 spot-on 0 9.6 -9.6 12.6 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ITHN1 97 (134/138) 100 (180/180) 80 (111/138) 58 (104/180) 16 ( 22/138) 4 ( 7/180) 1 ( 2/138) under -2 under -10 under -5 under -8 over 9 over 6 over 4 6.3 -0.9 7.6 -1.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KEAN1 86 (118/138) 100 (154/154) 80 (111/138) 64 ( 98/154) 43 ( 59/138) 26 ( 40/154) 23 ( 32/138) over 9 under -10 under -5 under -14 under -18 under -16 under -18 12.9 -10.3 12.6 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LCNN1 98 (135/138) 100 (180/180) 91 (125/138) 73 (131/180) 34 ( 47/138) 13 ( 24/180) 6 ( 8/138) under -3 under -10 under -16 under -23 under -9 under -3 under -1 9.3 -9.3 12.2 -12.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LESN1 99 (136/138) 100 (152/152) 94 (130/138) 73 (111/152) 42 ( 58/138) 20 ( 31/152) 12 ( 17/138) under -4 under -10 under -19 under -23 under -17 under -10 under -7 12.9 -12.9 15.8 -15.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LOUN1 99 (136/138) 100 (153/153) 90 (124/138) 71 (108/153) 37 ( 51/138) 17 ( 26/153) 6 ( 8/138) under -4 under -10 under -15 under -21 under -12 under -7 under -1 10.0 -10.0 13.0 -13.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NBDN1 98 (135/138) 100 (153/153) 92 (127/138) 75 (114/153) 50 ( 69/138) 30 ( 46/153) 14 ( 20/138) under -3 under -10 under -17 under -25 under -25 under -20 under -9 15.6 -15.6 19.4 -19.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFKN1 97 (134/138) 100 (192/192) 89 (123/138) 74 (142/192) 46 ( 64/138) 27 ( 51/192) 18 ( 25/138) under -2 under -10 under -14 under -24 under -21 under -17 under -13 14.4 -14.4 17.2 -17.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NKRN1 95 (127/133) 100 (133/133) 72 ( 96/133) 57 ( 76/133) 37 ( 49/133) 17 ( 22/133) 5 ( 6/133) spot-on 0 under -10 over 3 under -7 under -12 under -7 spot-on 0 5.6 -4.7 7.8 -6.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NLIN1 85 (117/138) 100 (192/192) 59 ( 82/138) 32 ( 61/192) 18 ( 25/138) 10 ( 20/192) 7 ( 9/138) over 10 under -10 over 16 over 18 over 7 spot-on 0 under -2 9.0 5.6 10.2 6.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- OVTN1 89 (101/113) 100 (113/113) 83 ( 94/113) 61 ( 69/113) 39 ( 44/113) 27 ( 30/113) 20 ( 23/113) over 6 under -10 under -8 under -11 under -14 under -17 under -15 11.6 -9.9 12.0 -12.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PLGN1 95 (131/138) 100 (192/192) 87 (120/138) 69 (132/192) 30 ( 42/138) 18 ( 34/192) 6 ( 8/138) spot-on 0 under -10 under -12 under -19 under -5 under -8 under -1 7.9 -7.9 10.8 -10.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PRCN1 95 (131/138) 100 (192/192) 90 (124/138) 74 (142/192) 41 ( 57/138) 21 ( 41/192) 18 ( 25/138) spot-on 0 under -10 under -15 under -24 under -16 under -11 under -13 12.7 -12.7 15.2 -15.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ROCN1 97 (134/138) 100 (180/180) 87 (120/138) 70 (126/180) 44 ( 61/138) 19 ( 35/180) 12 ( 17/138) under -2 under -10 under -12 under -20 under -19 under -9 under -7 11.3 -11.3 14.0 -14.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UEHN1 97 (134/138) 100 (192/192) 88 (121/138) 63 (120/192) 30 ( 42/138) 15 ( 29/192) 8 ( 11/138) under -2 under -10 under -13 under -13 under -5 under -5 under -3 7.3 -7.3 9.2 -9.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WLON1 98 (121/123) 100 (123/123) 91 (112/123) 62 ( 76/123) 24 ( 29/123) 7 ( 8/123) 1 ( 1/123) under -3 under -10 under -16 under -12 over 1 over 3 over 4 7.0 -4.7 8.4 -6.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WPNN1 95 (131/138) 100 (192/192) 91 (125/138) 74 (142/192) 41 ( 56/138) 22 ( 43/192) 10 ( 14/138) spot-on 0 under -10 under -16 under -24 under -16 under -12 under -5 11.9 -11.9 15.6 -15.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WTRN1 96 (132/138) 100 (192/192) 82 (113/138) 56 (108/192) 23 ( 32/138) 16 ( 30/192) 7 ( 9/138) under -1 under -10 under -7 under -6 over 2 under -6 under -2 4.9 -4.3 6.2 -5.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================