WFO - BYZ net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BFYM8 94 (160/171) 100 (215/215) 84 (144/171) 75 (161/215) 53 ( 91/171) 37 ( 80/215) 22 ( 37/171) over 1 under -10 under -9 under -25 under -28 under -27 under -17 16.7 -16.4 19.8 -19.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BILM8 96 (164/171) 100 (215/215) 90 (154/171) 87 (186/215) 74 (127/171) 50 (107/215) 26 ( 45/171) under -1 under -10 under -15 under -37 under -49 under -40 under -21 24.7 -24.7 30.2 -30.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BNYM8 95 (163/171) 100 (195/195) 94 (160/171) 90 (175/195) 85 (146/171) 75 (147/195) 57 ( 98/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -60 under -65 under -52 35.1 -35.1 38.8 -38.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BTMM8 94 (161/171) 100 (215/215) 89 (152/171) 85 (182/215) 70 (120/171) 53 (114/215) 39 ( 66/171) over 1 under -10 under -14 under -35 under -45 under -43 under -34 26.0 -25.7 29.4 -29.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CORM8 95 (163/171) 100 (215/215) 81 (138/171) 70 (151/215) 46 ( 78/171) 28 ( 60/215) 13 ( 23/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -6 under -20 under -21 under -18 under -8 11.9 -11.9 15.0 -15.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- EDGM8 92 (157/171) 100 (174/174) 84 (144/171) 67 (117/174) 53 ( 91/171) 35 ( 61/174) 21 ( 36/171) over 3 under -10 under -9 under -17 under -28 under -25 under -16 15.4 -14.6 17.8 -17.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- FRYM8 94 (102/108) 100 (108/108) 93 (100/108) 84 ( 91/108) 81 ( 88/108) 44 ( 48/108) 25 ( 27/108) over 1 under -10 under -18 under -34 under -56 under -34 under -20 24.7 -24.4 30.4 -30.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HLWM8 88 (126/143) 100 (143/143) 87 (124/143) 78 (112/143) 74 (106/143) 53 ( 76/143) 42 ( 60/143) over 7 under -10 under -12 under -28 under -49 under -43 under -37 26.6 -24.6 28.4 -28.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- HRDM8 97 (105/108) 100 (108/108) 94 (101/108) 84 ( 91/108) 69 ( 75/108) 43 ( 46/108) 29 ( 31/108) under -2 under -10 under -19 under -34 under -44 under -33 under -24 23.7 -23.7 28.0 -28.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LIVM8 94 (161/171) 100 (215/215) 86 (147/171) 75 (161/215) 50 ( 86/171) 32 ( 69/215) 22 ( 37/171) over 1 under -10 under -11 under -25 under -25 under -22 under -17 15.9 -15.6 18.6 -18.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LVNM8 94 (134/143) 100 (143/143) 92 (130/142) 79 (113/143) 65 ( 92/142) 55 ( 78/143) 44 ( 63/142) over 1 under -10 under -17 under -29 under -40 under -45 under -39 25.9 -25.6 28.2 -28.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MICM8 87 (148/171) 100 (189/189) 87 (148/171) 83 (157/189) 68 (116/171) 41 ( 78/189) 29 ( 50/171) over 8 under -10 under -12 under -33 under -43 under -31 under -24 23.0 -20.7 25.8 -25.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MILM8 94 (101/108) 100 (108/108) 91 ( 98/108) 87 ( 94/108) 82 ( 89/108) 54 ( 58/108) 40 ( 43/108) over 1 under -10 under -16 under -37 under -57 under -44 under -35 28.6 -28.3 32.8 -32.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- MUSM8 91 (129/142) 100 (142/142) 87 (123/142) 73 (104/142) 57 ( 81/142) 42 ( 60/142) 33 ( 47/142) over 4 under -10 under -12 under -23 under -32 under -32 under -28 20.1 -19.0 21.8 -21.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RUPM8 79 (112/142) 100 (142/142) 74 (105/142) 61 ( 87/142) 46 ( 65/142) 32 ( 45/142) 21 ( 30/142) over 16 under -10 over 1 under -11 under -21 under -22 under -16 13.9 -9.0 13.0 -12.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHAM8 92 (132/143) 100 (143/143) 87 (125/143) 75 (107/143) 57 ( 82/143) 43 ( 62/143) 34 ( 49/143) over 3 under -10 under -12 under -25 under -32 under -33 under -29 20.6 -19.7 22.4 -22.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SHBW4 77 (118/153) 100 (153/153) 76 (117/153) 76 (116/153) 65 (100/153) 50 ( 77/153) 39 ( 60/153) over 18 under -10 under -1 under -26 under -40 under -40 under -34 24.1 -19.0 23.4 -23.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLDM8 82 (140/171) 100 (215/215) 68 (116/171) 50 (108/215) 26 ( 44/171) 19 ( 40/215) 11 ( 19/171) over 13 under -10 over 7 spot-on 0 under -1 under -9 under -6 6.6 -0.9 5.4 -2.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SRAM8 95 (163/171) 100 (209/209) 88 (151/171) 80 (167/209) 64 (109/171) 43 ( 90/209) 22 ( 37/171) spot-on 0 under -10 under -13 under -30 under -39 under -33 under -17 20.3 -20.3 25.0 -25.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================