Forecast Group - BIGHORN (BGH) net error & bias Forecast Exceedance Percentage 95to5pct 90to10pct 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5% MAE ME MAE ME ============================================================================================================================= Location Observed Exceedance Percentage PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) PCT (sum/cnt) ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BBRW4 96 ( 78/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 94 ( 76/ 81) 90 ( 73/ 81) 83 ( 67/ 81) 80 ( 65/ 81) 65 ( 53/ 81) under -1 under -10 under -19 under -40 under -58 under -70 under -60 36.9 -36.9 39.4 -39.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BHBW4 95 ( 77/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 95 ( 77/ 81) 89 ( 72/ 81) 73 ( 59/ 81) 57 ( 46/ 81) 51 ( 41/ 81) spot-on 0 under -10 under -20 under -39 under -48 under -47 under -46 30.0 -30.0 32.8 -32.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- CROW4 92 ( 88/ 96) 100 ( 96/ 96) 91 ( 87/ 96) 90 ( 86/ 96) 85 ( 82/ 96) 75 ( 72/ 96) 72 ( 69/ 96) over 3 under -10 under -16 under -40 under -60 under -65 under -67 37.3 -36.4 38.2 -38.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- DUBW4 99 (135/136) 100 (176/176) 95 (129/136) 94 (165/176) 82 (112/136) 75 (132/176) 60 ( 81/136) under -4 under -10 under -20 under -44 under -57 under -65 under -55 36.4 -36.4 39.2 -39.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- GYBW4 83 ( 67/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 72 ( 58/ 81) 64 ( 52/ 81) 57 ( 46/ 81) 51 ( 41/ 81) 43 ( 35/ 81) over 12 under -10 over 3 under -14 under -32 under -41 under -38 21.4 -17.1 20.0 -18.8 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- KINW4 97 ( 93/ 96) 100 ( 96/ 96) 97 ( 93/ 96) 89 ( 85/ 96) 82 ( 79/ 96) 70 ( 67/ 96) 57 ( 55/ 96) under -2 under -10 under -22 under -39 under -57 under -60 under -52 34.6 -34.6 37.6 -37.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- NFSW4 99 (134/136) 100 (181/181) 99 (134/136) 97 (175/181) 88 (120/136) 81 (146/181) 57 ( 78/136) under -4 under -10 under -24 under -47 under -63 under -71 under -52 38.7 -38.7 43.0 -43.0 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RVTW4 99 ( 80/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 98 ( 79/ 81) 94 ( 76/ 81) 81 ( 66/ 81) 64 ( 52/ 81) 51 ( 41/ 81) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -44 under -56 under -54 under -46 33.9 -33.9 37.4 -37.4 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SLOW4 84 ( 68/ 81) 100 ( 81/ 81) 84 ( 68/ 81) 79 ( 64/ 81) 74 ( 60/ 81) 69 ( 56/ 81) 59 ( 48/ 81) over 11 under -10 under -9 under -29 under -49 under -59 under -54 31.6 -28.4 31.2 -31.2 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WDRW4 99 ( 95/ 96) 100 ( 96/ 96) 98 ( 94/ 96) 96 ( 92/ 96) 86 ( 83/ 96) 73 ( 70/ 96) 65 ( 62/ 96) under -4 under -10 under -23 under -46 under -61 under -63 under -60 38.1 -38.1 40.6 -40.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- WRCW4 99 (135/136) 100 (176/176) 97 (132/136) 85 (149/176) 79 (108/136) 62 (109/176) 58 ( 79/136) under -4 under -10 under -22 under -35 under -54 under -52 under -53 32.9 -32.9 34.6 -34.6 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- sum - number of times max observed >= forecast cnt - total number of forecasts =============================================================================================================================