Snow in the Great Lakes; Windy Conditions in the East
Lake effect snow will impact the Great Lakes region through the day. Gusty winds will pick up across the Midwest, Northeast and Mid-Atlantic beginning this afternoon following a cold front. Elevated fire weather conditions will persist across the Desert Southwest today, with critical fire weather conditions developing Wednesday and Thursday in the Southern Plains.
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763
FXUS64 KSHV 151433
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Added a brief pop/wx slot in the grid 14-16Z for Thunderstorm
activity running SE along the Neches River valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Cooler air and drier dew points are advecting into our Four-State
area this morning with the cool front now well to our south. The
upper level boundary at 850mb is scouring some residual moisture
over deep east TX with a cluster of thunderstorms riding the cwa
line. This activity is encroaching on SW Cherokee County at this
time and will continue to run down river toward Lufkin. However,
this is the magic hour where low level jet activity slows with
the commencement of heating. The HRRR is still trying to see any
convection and if it does, it will likely be ending at nearly the
same time. Zone update out and includes the grouping of these two
counties. Meanwhile, everyone else can enjoy the fresh crisp air
arriving with this 1024mb surface air mass. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work
week with upper ridging over the region. But, southerly winds will
return, as the aforementioned surface high slides east of the
region. Expect warmer and more humid conditions on Thursday and
Friday, with highs approaching 90 degrees in many locations.
By Saturday, the upper ridge will push eastward into the SE
CONUS. At the same time, flow aloft will transition to
southwesterly ahead of a large closed upper trough diving
southward through the Great Basin Region into the Four Corners
area of the SW CONUS. This will push a trough/cold front through
the Central Plains into the Southern Plains. With the previously
mentioned upper ridge firmly in place across the SE CONUS during
this period, the southward progression of the front will be halted.
As of now, it is forecast to stall just northwest of our forecast
area by Saturday evening. This proximity should still be close
enough for rain chances to return to portions of the region. The
best chances will be across our northwestern zones, generally
along and north of the I-30 corridor. This basically covers
extreme NE Texas, portions of Southwest Arkansas, and McCurtain
County in SE Oklahoma. The ridge will move eastward by Sunday as
the Four Corners upper trough shifts into the Southern Plains.
This will allow the trough/front to push into the area Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase areawide during this period. With the trough taking on
more of a negative tilt during this period, severe weather will
likely be in play. The Storm Prediction has highlighted our area
in a Slight Risk on Sunday and early Monday morning. Dry weather
will move into the area by Monday afternoon in wake of the front,
but rain chances return on Tuesday, as an upper level disturbance
moves into the region from the west. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
The previously mentioned surface cold front that was just north of
the SHV terminal at the beginning of the 06z TAF package has since
exited the local airspace. In the immediate wake of the boundary,
surface terminal winds have been on the gusty side, with the SHV
terminal reporting a NE wind gust of 23kts around an hour ago.
This will likely be the case for many terminals along the I-20
corridor and south through the early morning ahead of the arrival
of high pressure this afternoon, which will help to displace the
BKN/OVC ceilings and see a return to VFR and a general SKC/FEW
appearance through the majority of the period. Light mid clouds
look to return to the northern terminals this evening, with
additional development possible beyond this TAF period.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 50 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 75 47 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 73 44 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 47 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 74 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 76 51 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 48 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 79 51 82 63 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...53
763
FXUS64 KSHV 151433
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
933 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
...New UPDATE, SHORT TERM...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 924 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Added a brief pop/wx slot in the grid 14-16Z for Thunderstorm
activity running SE along the Neches River valley.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 924 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Cooler air and drier dew points are advecting into our Four-State
area this morning with the cool front now well to our south. The
upper level boundary at 850mb is scouring some residual moisture
over deep east TX with a cluster of thunderstorms riding the cwa
line. This activity is encroaching on SW Cherokee County at this
time and will continue to run down river toward Lufkin. However,
this is the magic hour where low level jet activity slows with
the commencement of heating. The HRRR is still trying to see any
convection and if it does, it will likely be ending at nearly the
same time. Zone update out and includes the grouping of these two
counties. Meanwhile, everyone else can enjoy the fresh crisp air
arriving with this 1024mb surface air mass. /24/
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 342 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
Dry conditions will prevail through the remainder of the work
week with upper ridging over the region. But, southerly winds will
return, as the aforementioned surface high slides east of the
region. Expect warmer and more humid conditions on Thursday and
Friday, with highs approaching 90 degrees in many locations.
By Saturday, the upper ridge will push eastward into the SE
CONUS. At the same time, flow aloft will transition to
southwesterly ahead of a large closed upper trough diving
southward through the Great Basin Region into the Four Corners
area of the SW CONUS. This will push a trough/cold front through
the Central Plains into the Southern Plains. With the previously
mentioned upper ridge firmly in place across the SE CONUS during
this period, the southward progression of the front will be halted.
As of now, it is forecast to stall just northwest of our forecast
area by Saturday evening. This proximity should still be close
enough for rain chances to return to portions of the region. The
best chances will be across our northwestern zones, generally
along and north of the I-30 corridor. This basically covers
extreme NE Texas, portions of Southwest Arkansas, and McCurtain
County in SE Oklahoma. The ridge will move eastward by Sunday as
the Four Corners upper trough shifts into the Southern Plains.
This will allow the trough/front to push into the area Sunday
afternoon into Monday. Showers and thunderstorm chances will
increase areawide during this period. With the trough taking on
more of a negative tilt during this period, severe weather will
likely be in play. The Storm Prediction has highlighted our area
in a Slight Risk on Sunday and early Monday morning. Dry weather
will move into the area by Monday afternoon in wake of the front,
but rain chances return on Tuesday, as an upper level disturbance
moves into the region from the west. /20/
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Tue Apr 15 2025
The previously mentioned surface cold front that was just north of
the SHV terminal at the beginning of the 06z TAF package has since
exited the local airspace. In the immediate wake of the boundary,
surface terminal winds have been on the gusty side, with the SHV
terminal reporting a NE wind gust of 23kts around an hour ago.
This will likely be the case for many terminals along the I-20
corridor and south through the early morning ahead of the arrival
of high pressure this afternoon, which will help to displace the
BKN/OVC ceilings and see a return to VFR and a general SKC/FEW
appearance through the majority of the period. Light mid clouds
look to return to the northern terminals this evening, with
additional development possible beyond this TAF period.
KNAPP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1255 PM CDT Mon Apr 14 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 77 50 81 62 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 75 47 78 57 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 73 44 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 75 47 80 61 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 74 45 78 56 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 76 51 81 63 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 76 48 81 60 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 79 51 82 63 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...53
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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