663
FXUS64 KSHV 212328
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
528 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 106 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The mid and upper level pattern this afternoon features broad
cyclonic flow extending across the majority of the CONUS, with a
few notable shortwave troughs noted within, one of which is
pushing across the Deep South. Near the surface, a cold front
extends from the Great Lakes Region S/SW through the TN Valley and
ArkLaMiss region, while further south an area of low pressure
continues east across the Central Gulf, which is responsible for
the significant winter storm across the Gulf Coast.
For the rest of today, dry conditions will remain in place across
the area after areas of light snow moved across the southern half
of the forecast area earlier this morning. Current reports suggest
snowfall amounts ranged across this area from a light dusting to
around 1 inch, with much higher snowfall totals reported to the
south of the forecast area across Central and Southern Louisiana.
The aforementioned cold front will continue to swing through the
area this evening, ushering in slightly colder air for the
overnight period. Expect low temperatures tonight to be the
coldest temperatures of the week, dropping areawide into the
teens. This has prompted the Freeze Warning across the area for
tonight into Wednesday morning. Did adjust lows down a degree or
two across the far southern tier of counties and parishes,
generally from Angelina County east to La Salle Parish where light
snowpack may slightly affect temperatures. Regardless, it will be
a cold night across the Four State Region which has the potential
to cause problems with sensitive vegetation and plumbing.
For Wednesday, south winds return to the area as surface high
pressure shifts to the south and east in the wake of Tuesday
evening`s cold front. The pressure gradient will increase across
northwest and northern zones in E TX and SE OK as low pressure
skirts along the US/Canada border and drags a cold front into the
Central and Southern Plains. With the wind shift out of the
south, temperatures will modify into the 40s in the afternoon.
Residual snow pack in the far south will melt on Wednesday, but
may temper afternoon highs slightly, capping them in the upper 30s
to near 40.
Wednesday night will still feature cold temperatures back into the
20s under partly cloudy skies and calming winds. The cold front
across the Central and Southern Plains will weaken as it
approaches and pushes through the area, with essentially no
sensible weather impacts associated with its passage.
Kovacik
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 106 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The long term forecast period will feature a deepening trough of
low pressure in the mid and upper levels over the Great Plains and
Four State Region as several shortwave troughs dig along the Front
Range of the Rockies, while the lower levels continue to feature
high pressure across this same region. The ArkLaTex/Four State
Region will be starved for moisture initially in the long term
period, so any upper level shortwave trough passage will
essentially go unnoticed.
After a cold start to the day once again on Thursday, temperatures
will slowly rebound back towards 50 degrees for most locations in
the afternoon given abundant sunshine above the ~1030+mb sfc high.
A NW wind between 5-10mph will keep apparent temps in the 40s,
but given the recent cold spell earlier in the week, Thursday is
likely to feel pleasant to many.
The warming trend will then continue into Friday with highs
largely in the low 50s outside of SE OK and SW AR as high pressure
begins to slowly shift east through the day. Friday will really
begin to mark the transition back to a pattern that will initiate
return flow from the Gulf.
For the upcoming weekend, rain and thunderstorm chances return
back to the forecast as sfc high pressure becomes centered over
the SE CONUS, opening up the forecast area to moisture return from
the Gulf. In addition to this, WPC Cluster Analysis shows good
agreement amongst ensemble members from the GFS, EC, and CMC that
a closed area of low pressure will begin to cutoff from the main
belt of westerlies across the northern CONUS and settle towards
the Desert SW/northern Baja vicinity. This raises concern for a
period of unsettled weather through the remainder of the long
term, but luckily with warming temperatures the threat for winter
weather will be largely eliminated (will closely monitor northern
zones during overnight periods as lows drop into the mid 30s but
impacts from winter weather are currently not expected). Cloud
cover will increase through the day Saturday, with dewpoints
gradually rising back into the 30s and 40s (substantially higher
than the past week, which is hard to believe). As such, highs will
again push back into the 50s, a few degrees warmer than Friday.
By Saturday night, enough moisture will be present for shower
development, with guidance indicating the development of sfc low
pressure and associated weak frontal system/trough near the
western portion of the forecast area, likely in association with
unsettled quasi-zonal mid level flow ahead of the meandering low
near Baja/Desert SW.
Rain and thunderstorm chances then increase into Sunday as the sfc
trough pushes further into the area. As it stands now, MLCAPE
values remain below 500J/kg, with marginal lapse rates, and 50s
dewpoints remaining confined to the southern portions of the
forecast area. Deep layer shear does appear sufficient for storm
organization, however, with other parameters remaining weak, do
not currently anticipate a threat for severe weather. If moisture
return trends appear more impressive in coming days, the threat
for at least a few strong storms could become something to watch.
A subsequent system may follow directly on the heels of this
system on Monday, continuing the unsettled weather from the
weekend. This far out, details remain uncertain, but given good
ensemble consensus in the upper level pattern, will keep rain
chances in the forecast through Monday (which are then likely to continue
beyond Monday).
Kovacik
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
For the 22/00Z TAFs, as of sundown this evening, low cloud decks
have completely cleared out of ArkLaTex airspace, leaving
uninterrupted VFR conditions in their wake, with largely SKC
punctuated only by occasional BKN high clouds. North winds will
become light and variable overnight, turning around to southerly
by morning, and picking up to sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with
gusts of up to 25 kts possible.
SP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Measurements of
any wintry precipitation accumulations are appreciated from our
southern zones. Thank you.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 19 46 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 15 42 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 14 44 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 18 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 15 43 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 21 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 18 47 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 17 46 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
663
FXUS64 KSHV 212328
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
528 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 106 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The mid and upper level pattern this afternoon features broad
cyclonic flow extending across the majority of the CONUS, with a
few notable shortwave troughs noted within, one of which is
pushing across the Deep South. Near the surface, a cold front
extends from the Great Lakes Region S/SW through the TN Valley and
ArkLaMiss region, while further south an area of low pressure
continues east across the Central Gulf, which is responsible for
the significant winter storm across the Gulf Coast.
For the rest of today, dry conditions will remain in place across
the area after areas of light snow moved across the southern half
of the forecast area earlier this morning. Current reports suggest
snowfall amounts ranged across this area from a light dusting to
around 1 inch, with much higher snowfall totals reported to the
south of the forecast area across Central and Southern Louisiana.
The aforementioned cold front will continue to swing through the
area this evening, ushering in slightly colder air for the
overnight period. Expect low temperatures tonight to be the
coldest temperatures of the week, dropping areawide into the
teens. This has prompted the Freeze Warning across the area for
tonight into Wednesday morning. Did adjust lows down a degree or
two across the far southern tier of counties and parishes,
generally from Angelina County east to La Salle Parish where light
snowpack may slightly affect temperatures. Regardless, it will be
a cold night across the Four State Region which has the potential
to cause problems with sensitive vegetation and plumbing.
For Wednesday, south winds return to the area as surface high
pressure shifts to the south and east in the wake of Tuesday
evening`s cold front. The pressure gradient will increase across
northwest and northern zones in E TX and SE OK as low pressure
skirts along the US/Canada border and drags a cold front into the
Central and Southern Plains. With the wind shift out of the
south, temperatures will modify into the 40s in the afternoon.
Residual snow pack in the far south will melt on Wednesday, but
may temper afternoon highs slightly, capping them in the upper 30s
to near 40.
Wednesday night will still feature cold temperatures back into the
20s under partly cloudy skies and calming winds. The cold front
across the Central and Southern Plains will weaken as it
approaches and pushes through the area, with essentially no
sensible weather impacts associated with its passage.
Kovacik
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 106 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
The long term forecast period will feature a deepening trough of
low pressure in the mid and upper levels over the Great Plains and
Four State Region as several shortwave troughs dig along the Front
Range of the Rockies, while the lower levels continue to feature
high pressure across this same region. The ArkLaTex/Four State
Region will be starved for moisture initially in the long term
period, so any upper level shortwave trough passage will
essentially go unnoticed.
After a cold start to the day once again on Thursday, temperatures
will slowly rebound back towards 50 degrees for most locations in
the afternoon given abundant sunshine above the ~1030+mb sfc high.
A NW wind between 5-10mph will keep apparent temps in the 40s,
but given the recent cold spell earlier in the week, Thursday is
likely to feel pleasant to many.
The warming trend will then continue into Friday with highs
largely in the low 50s outside of SE OK and SW AR as high pressure
begins to slowly shift east through the day. Friday will really
begin to mark the transition back to a pattern that will initiate
return flow from the Gulf.
For the upcoming weekend, rain and thunderstorm chances return
back to the forecast as sfc high pressure becomes centered over
the SE CONUS, opening up the forecast area to moisture return from
the Gulf. In addition to this, WPC Cluster Analysis shows good
agreement amongst ensemble members from the GFS, EC, and CMC that
a closed area of low pressure will begin to cutoff from the main
belt of westerlies across the northern CONUS and settle towards
the Desert SW/northern Baja vicinity. This raises concern for a
period of unsettled weather through the remainder of the long
term, but luckily with warming temperatures the threat for winter
weather will be largely eliminated (will closely monitor northern
zones during overnight periods as lows drop into the mid 30s but
impacts from winter weather are currently not expected). Cloud
cover will increase through the day Saturday, with dewpoints
gradually rising back into the 30s and 40s (substantially higher
than the past week, which is hard to believe). As such, highs will
again push back into the 50s, a few degrees warmer than Friday.
By Saturday night, enough moisture will be present for shower
development, with guidance indicating the development of sfc low
pressure and associated weak frontal system/trough near the
western portion of the forecast area, likely in association with
unsettled quasi-zonal mid level flow ahead of the meandering low
near Baja/Desert SW.
Rain and thunderstorm chances then increase into Sunday as the sfc
trough pushes further into the area. As it stands now, MLCAPE
values remain below 500J/kg, with marginal lapse rates, and 50s
dewpoints remaining confined to the southern portions of the
forecast area. Deep layer shear does appear sufficient for storm
organization, however, with other parameters remaining weak, do
not currently anticipate a threat for severe weather. If moisture
return trends appear more impressive in coming days, the threat
for at least a few strong storms could become something to watch.
A subsequent system may follow directly on the heels of this
system on Monday, continuing the unsettled weather from the
weekend. This far out, details remain uncertain, but given good
ensemble consensus in the upper level pattern, will keep rain
chances in the forecast through Monday (which are then likely to continue
beyond Monday).
Kovacik
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
For the 22/00Z TAFs, as of sundown this evening, low cloud decks
have completely cleared out of ArkLaTex airspace, leaving
uninterrupted VFR conditions in their wake, with largely SKC
punctuated only by occasional BKN high clouds. North winds will
become light and variable overnight, turning around to southerly
by morning, and picking up to sustained speeds of 5 to 15 kts with
gusts of up to 25 kts possible.
SP
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 1129 AM CST Tue Jan 21 2025
Spotter activation is not expected at this time. Measurements of
any wintry precipitation accumulations are appreciated from our
southern zones. Thank you.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 19 46 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
MLU 15 42 24 50 / 0 0 0 0
DEQ 14 44 21 48 / 0 0 0 0
TXK 18 46 25 49 / 0 0 0 0
ELD 15 43 22 49 / 0 0 0 0
TYR 21 47 26 50 / 0 0 0 0
GGG 18 47 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
LFK 17 46 24 51 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073.
LA...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022.
OK...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
OKZ077.
TX...Freeze Warning from midnight tonight to 9 AM CST Wednesday for
TXZ096-097-108>112-124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...26
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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