Possible Record Breaking Warmth in the Western U.S.; Elevated to Critical Fire Weather in the Eastern U.S.
Anomalously warm temperatures over the western U.S. today and Wednesday may break or tie current high and warm low records. In the East, dry conditions and gusty winds are bringing elevated fire weather to parts of the Eastern U.S. with critical fire weather in the southern Appalachians.
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595
FXUS64 KSHV 251954
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
254 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A surface boundary remains stalled this afternoon along the I-30
corridor with attention turning towards late evening and overnight
convective initiation along the boundary. South of this boundary, a
warm afternoon continues across the Four State Region, as many area
climate sites have climbed as much as 10 deg F since the mid morning
update. Expect for a few more hours of warming ahead of sunset, with
temperatures falling off into the overnight.
Overnight, and as previously mentioned, hi-res CAMs suggest
thunderstorm development along the boundary axis across southern
Oklahoma as supportive WAA advances northward, with the convective
mode extending east into northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma
through early Wednesday AM. Confidence is highest in gusty winds
being the primary focus with developing thunderstorms. A local
hail threat does exist, but it is worth noting that lapse rates
across the northern zones are marginal. There remains some
uncertainty surrounding the southward extent of the convection
into Wednesday as the boundary sags south towards the I-20
corridor. That being said, Wednesday maxT`s do account for some
convective and frontal influence as temperatures from the I-20
corridor and north settle in the 70`s, while communities south of
the boundary return to the 80`s.
KNAPP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The long term period advertises daily rain chances across the D3-7
forecast. Sub-tropical shortwave influence working across Mexico
will advect mid-level energy across the local area late Thursday,
into Friday. The rather slow eastward progression of the mid-level
feature will allow for rain chances to prevail through the end of
the week, heading into the weekend. Global solutions do suggest
that much of the rain should be displaced east of the FA come
Saturday afternoon, but with a lifting warm front and a very
saturated airmass in advance of a robust frontal passage late
Sunday, Saturday should be on the humid side.
As mentioned, all of this falls in advance of a robust surface cold
front that will work south and east late Sunday afternoon, into
Sunday night/early Monday AM. The Storm Prediction Center continues
to highlight a broad region of the CONUS, including much of the
Ark-La-Tex, in a 15 percent Slight Risk. This falls in line with
the latest ML output suggesting the same solution. Currently,
questions do surround local forcing strength, timing and the
southward extend of the severe potential. That being said, whether
storms do develop locally or not, conducive parameters will be in
place during the advertised period such that if storms were to
develop, they may quickly become severe with all modes possible.
For now, it is worth monitoring the forecast as this far out,
changes are to be expected. Beyond the weekend, and heading into
next week, the influence of the passing cold front looks to
support highs in the 70`s to finish out the long term period.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
For the 25/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail with
FEW to SCT high cirrus dominating through the afternoon. Skies
will begin to fill in from the northwest as this forecast period
continues, first impacting KTXK with OVC skies during the night.
Showers and storms will likewise enter area airspace from the
north and west late this evening, bringing impacts to KTXK after
midnight and reaching terminals along the I-20 corridor by or
shortly after daybreak. Guidance does not currently suggest a
dramatic lowering of CIGs accompanying this rainfall, however,
prevailing OVC mid level cloud decks. Northwesterly winds will
remain light and become increasing variable through this forecast
period as a surface boundary enters the region and remains stalled
into tomorrow. Sustained speeds will be less than 5 kts, with
isolated gusts, if any.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Spotter activation may be needed for thunderstorms late this
evening and overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 78 60 81 / 20 40 0 10
MLU 57 74 57 81 / 10 40 0 0
DEQ 54 74 53 80 / 50 50 10 10
TXK 57 73 57 81 / 40 50 10 10
ELD 54 72 54 81 / 20 50 0 0
TYR 61 81 61 77 / 20 30 0 30
GGG 59 78 58 79 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 60 84 61 77 / 0 10 0 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...26
595
FXUS64 KSHV 251954
AFDSHV
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
254 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
A surface boundary remains stalled this afternoon along the I-30
corridor with attention turning towards late evening and overnight
convective initiation along the boundary. South of this boundary, a
warm afternoon continues across the Four State Region, as many area
climate sites have climbed as much as 10 deg F since the mid morning
update. Expect for a few more hours of warming ahead of sunset, with
temperatures falling off into the overnight.
Overnight, and as previously mentioned, hi-res CAMs suggest
thunderstorm development along the boundary axis across southern
Oklahoma as supportive WAA advances northward, with the convective
mode extending east into northeast Texas and southeastern Oklahoma
through early Wednesday AM. Confidence is highest in gusty winds
being the primary focus with developing thunderstorms. A local
hail threat does exist, but it is worth noting that lapse rates
across the northern zones are marginal. There remains some
uncertainty surrounding the southward extent of the convection
into Wednesday as the boundary sags south towards the I-20
corridor. That being said, Wednesday maxT`s do account for some
convective and frontal influence as temperatures from the I-20
corridor and north settle in the 70`s, while communities south of
the boundary return to the 80`s.
KNAPP
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
The long term period advertises daily rain chances across the D3-7
forecast. Sub-tropical shortwave influence working across Mexico
will advect mid-level energy across the local area late Thursday,
into Friday. The rather slow eastward progression of the mid-level
feature will allow for rain chances to prevail through the end of
the week, heading into the weekend. Global solutions do suggest
that much of the rain should be displaced east of the FA come
Saturday afternoon, but with a lifting warm front and a very
saturated airmass in advance of a robust frontal passage late
Sunday, Saturday should be on the humid side.
As mentioned, all of this falls in advance of a robust surface cold
front that will work south and east late Sunday afternoon, into
Sunday night/early Monday AM. The Storm Prediction Center continues
to highlight a broad region of the CONUS, including much of the
Ark-La-Tex, in a 15 percent Slight Risk. This falls in line with
the latest ML output suggesting the same solution. Currently,
questions do surround local forcing strength, timing and the
southward extend of the severe potential. That being said, whether
storms do develop locally or not, conducive parameters will be in
place during the advertised period such that if storms were to
develop, they may quickly become severe with all modes possible.
For now, it is worth monitoring the forecast as this far out,
changes are to be expected. Beyond the weekend, and heading into
next week, the influence of the passing cold front looks to
support highs in the 70`s to finish out the long term period.
KNAPP
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1213 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
For the 25/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will continue to prevail with
FEW to SCT high cirrus dominating through the afternoon. Skies
will begin to fill in from the northwest as this forecast period
continues, first impacting KTXK with OVC skies during the night.
Showers and storms will likewise enter area airspace from the
north and west late this evening, bringing impacts to KTXK after
midnight and reaching terminals along the I-20 corridor by or
shortly after daybreak. Guidance does not currently suggest a
dramatic lowering of CIGs accompanying this rainfall, however,
prevailing OVC mid level cloud decks. Northwesterly winds will
remain light and become increasing variable through this forecast
period as a surface boundary enters the region and remains stalled
into tomorrow. Sustained speeds will be less than 5 kts, with
isolated gusts, if any.
/26/
&&
.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Issued at 242 PM CDT Tue Mar 25 2025
Spotter activation may be needed for thunderstorms late this
evening and overnight.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV 61 78 60 81 / 20 40 0 10
MLU 57 74 57 81 / 10 40 0 0
DEQ 54 74 53 80 / 50 50 10 10
TXK 57 73 57 81 / 40 50 10 10
ELD 54 72 54 81 / 20 50 0 0
TYR 61 81 61 77 / 20 30 0 30
GGG 59 78 58 79 / 20 30 0 20
LFK 60 84 61 77 / 0 10 0 30
&&
.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...53
LONG TERM....53
AVIATION...26
Latest Hazardous Weather Outlook
IMPORTANT: This page is a tool to help pilots better visualize weather and weather-related hazards, and is not a substitute for a weather briefing obtained from a Flight Service Station (1-800-WXBRIEF). The information contained here does not meet the FAA requirements for a pre-flight weather brief. Therefore, it is important that pilots call and obtain a briefing from an FAA Flight Service Specialist.
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