A storm shifting from the Four Corners states across the Southeast U.S. this weekend will bring areas of heavy mountain snow, gusty winds and dry conditions resulting in critical fire weather, and heavy showers and thunderstorms. Read More >
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807 FXUS66 KMTR 082321 AFDMTR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco CA 321 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 ...New AVIATION, MARINE... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 Nearly perfect weather this weekend followed by an active week ahead. Increasing cloudiness on Monday with rain expected Wednesday into the weekend. Potential for impactful AR system next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Sunday) Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 Mostly clear skies today as ridging dominates this weekend. Increasing southerly flow ahead of the next system will result in overnight temperatures becoming a few degrees warmer than last night across inland areas. All in all a couple of really nice days ahead with clear skies and high temps in the low to mid 60s. All of the action is in the long term, so if you`re only worried about this weekend, stop reading and get outside! && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 1200 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 Another fairly nice day on Monday with temps in the 60s. However, we will start to see some cloud cover from a closed low making its way into SoCal. May be one of those intermittent cloud/sun kind of days. We will likely not see any rain from this first system during the early half of the week, as model trends keep translating things further south. Some showers are possible over extreme southern Monterey county early Tuesday morning, but I wouldn`t expect anything outside of that for Mon/Tue. Things change Wednesday as a more vigorous open wave approaches the West Coast. A modest amount of moisture takes aim at the CA coast with this midweek system, but at the moment appears to be nothing outstanding, especially given the transient nature of this system. Ensemble PWATs peak between 0.7-0.8" Wednesday morning, which would be around the 80th to 90th percentile for this time of year. Driven by a 100 kt jet upstream of the trough, this system is very likely to be a relatively quick mover, beginning in the North Bay Wednesday morning and exiting the Central Coast by late Wednesday night. Thursday will be a transition day with subtle ridging aloft, but lingering showers will be likely along with the slight chance for thunderstorms as the colder air moves in aloft. Thursday looks like the kind of day where it may look nice, but it will actually be chilly and windy in a deep NW flow regime. The next system in this active pattern enters the picture Friday. A broader trough with the upper level flow in a more zonal pattern hints at the potential for a more prolonged rain event and proper AR. In comparing PWATs to the midweek event, this is currently forecast to approach the moving average max for this time of year. Based on the current forecast, this would be the more impact period...next Friday into the weekend. However, this system does extend beyond the seven day period of reasonable confidence, so stay tuned as details become more clear. There is some moderate uncertainty in terms of the timing of such features, but reasonable confidence to say that the pattern remains active (storm door open) through the next 10 days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 319 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 VFR with clear skies across most of the terminals. Expect possible fog developing over KSNS and KSTS, with a slight chance for a FEW/SCT low clouds near SF Bay and South Bay terminals overnight. If conditions lower to MVFR/IFR conditions overnight, expect VFR to return by 16-17Z. Winds will be relatively light to moderate through the TAF period. Vicinity of SFO...VFR through the TAF period with a chance for a few low level FEW/SCT clouds near the terminal early Sunday morning, but confidence is low for MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds will gradually turn SE overnight before returning onshore by Sunday afternoon. SFO Bridge Approach...Similar to SFO. Monterey Bay Terminals...VFR currently but there is a chance for MVFR conditions after 10Z through 16Z. Confidence is low, as conditions may remain VFR through the TAF period. && .MARINE... (Tonight through next Thursday) Issued at 319 PM PST Sat Mar 8 2025 Moderate seas of up to 9 feet and a gentle to moderate breeze persist through Tuesday. Wind direction is expected to fluctuate as a cut-off low moves into southern California but winds will generally be out of the south through Monday. Hazardous conditions build throughout the day on Wednesday in the form of rough to very rough seas between 10 to 15 feet, a strong southwesterly breeze with gale force gusts, and moderate rainfall as a low pressure system moves into the Pacific Northwest. Unsettled conditions are expected to persist through next weekend as a series of lows move into the West Coast. && .MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CA...None. PZ...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Behringer LONG TERM....Behringer AVIATION...SO MARINE...Kennedy Visit us at www.weather.gov/sanfrancisco Follow us on Facebook, X, and YouTube at: www.facebook.com/nwsbayarea x.com/nwsbayarea www.youtube.com/nwsbayarea |
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