National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible Monday

Severe thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. While the entire region will have a potential, the highest potential will be east of the Blue Ridge. A lesser risk of severe storms is for this evening over portions of southwest VA and northwest NC. These storms will may be capable of producing localized damaging winds or an isolated tornado. Read More >

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EXPERIMENTAL...FIRE WEATHER POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
932 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

VAZ046-160800-
RAWS 441101
37.39N  78.80W Elev. 804 ft
932 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Date           03/15/26      Mon 03/16/26            Tue 03/17/26            Wed
UTC 3hrly     21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
EDT 3hrly     17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08

MIN/MAX TEMP                 60          70          28          43          24
TEMP                59 59 61 62 66 70 63 49 39 33 30 28 36 41 42 37 30 27 25 26
DEWPT               56 59 61 60 63 61 58 41 28 19 15 13 13 12 10  8  9  9 10 11
MIN/MAX RH                  100          72          79          26          56
RH                  90100100 93 90 73 84 74 64 56 53 53 38 30 26 29 41 46 52 52
WIND DIR            SE  S  S  S  S  S  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W NW NW NW SE
WIND SPD             9 10 12 13 16 17 18 16 14 13 11 10 12 13 13  8  5  3  2  2
WIND GUST           20 23 26 27 33 34 35 32 29 26 24 21 25 26 26 19            
CLOUDS              OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV B1 FW FW FW FW SC FW FW CL SC SC SC
CLOUDS(%)           98100100 99 89 88 89 95 55 25 24 18 12 32 22  6  2 33 38 28
VSBY                 6  7  7  6  6  3  3  5 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
POP 12HR                     80         100          30           0           0
RAIN SHWRS          SC IS IS NM NM  O NM SC IS                                 
SLEET                                     S                                    
TSTMS                           SC  O NM                                       
MIX HGT             <1 <1  2  2  3  5  4  2  2  3  4  3  5  7  8 <1            
T WIND DIR          SE  S  S  S  S  S  S  W  W  W NW  W  W  W  W  W            
T WIND SPD           8 13 18 19 27 40 39 33 34 32 25 20 18 19 20 13            
DISPERSION          PR FR FR             GD GD FR FR             PR PR VP VP   
ADI                  7 12 21 35 64121108 37 39 43 17 72 79 95 75  9            
MAX LVORI            4  5  5  4  3  3  3  3  1  1  2  1  1  1  1  2            
STABILITY            D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  E  C  C  C  D  E            
CEILING                     500   700 10400  None  None  None  None  None      
STA PRES                  29.01 28.90 28.71 29.03 29.24 29.38 29.42            


Date           03/18Thu 03/19/26Fri 03/20/26Sat 03/21/26Sun 03/22/26
UTC 6hrly     18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00
EDT 6hrly     14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20

MAX/MIN TEMP       44      27      58      38      66      45      70      45      70
TEMP          41 41 32 30 55 52 44 40 62 59 49 47 67 63 50 45 64 61
DEWPT         11 17 18 21 29 34 35 34 37 39 39 39 42 39 35 34 34 36
RH            29 37 56 69 37 50 70 79 39 47 68 74 40 41 56 65 32 39
WIND SPD          <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15
AVG CLOUDS    SC SC B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR            0       0       5       5      10      20      10       5      10
RAIN SHWRS                                     IS                  

$$


This product is for planning and review purposes only and is not
to be substituted for an official fire weather spot forecast. The
data displayed are calculated from a 2.5 by 2.5 km digital
database and only approximates weather conditions in highly
varying terrain. Please relay any comments you have to the NWS via
email at rnk.webmaster@noaa.gov.

Below is a weather element key for this product.
(Note...winds do not reflect local terrain effects.)

DAY 1 THROUGH 3...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew point temperature
MIN/MAX RH OR MAX/MIN RH(%).........Maximum/Minimum humdity
RH(%)...............................Relative humidity
WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS)...........Wind direction
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind speed
CLOUDS(CATEGORY)....................Cloud cover category
     EXAMPLE: CL = CLEAR; FW = FEW; SC = Scattered; BK = Broken; OV = Overcast
CLOUDS(%)...........................Cloud cover as a percentage
VSBY................................Visibility value in statute miles
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER...
   TYPE...
       RAIN...........Rain
       RAIN SHWRS.....Rain showers
       TSTMS..........Thunderstorms
       DRIZZLE........Drizzle
       SNOW...........Snow
       SNOWSHWRS......Snow showers
       SLEET..........Sleet
       FRZG RAIN......Freezing rain
       FRZG DRZL......Freezing drizzle
   COVERAGE...
       IS.............Isolated
       SC.............Scattered
       NM.............Numerous
       O..............Occasional
       S..............Slight chance
       C..............Chance
       L..............Likely
       WD.............Widespread
       D..............Definite
       AR.............Areas
       PA.............Patchy

MIX HGT(THOUSANDS OF FT AGL)........Mixing height
     Example: 6 = 6000 feet; 12 = 12000 feet; <1 = Less than 1000 foot
t WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS).........Transport Wind direction
T WIND SPD(MPH).....................Transport Wind speed
DISPERSION(CATEGORY)................Smoke Dispersion category
     Values: vp =Very Poor;PR = Poor; FR = Fair; GD = Good;
ADI (INDEX).........................Atmospheric Dispersion Index
MAX LVORI (INDEX)...................Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index
STABILITY (CATEGORY)................Pasquill Turner Stability
CEILING (FT)........................Ceiling
STA PRES (INCHES MERCURY)...........Station pressure

Day 4 Through 7...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew Point temperature
RH(%)...............................Relative Humidity
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind Speed
     Example: <15 = less than 15 MPH; 15> = 15 MPH or greater
AVE CLOUDS(CATEGORY)................Average Cloud Cover Category
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER.............................See Day 1 through 3 weather descriptions