National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible Monday

Severe thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. While the entire region will have a potential, the highest potential will be east of the Blue Ridge. A lesser risk of severe storms is for this evening over portions of southwest VA and northwest NC. These storms will may be capable of producing localized damaging winds or an isolated tornado. Read More >

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EXPERIMENTAL...FIRE WEATHER POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
402 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

NCZ005-162000-
RAWS 310540
36.38N  79.70W Elev. 858 ft
402 AM EDT Mon Mar 16 2026

Date             Mon 03/16/26            Tue 03/17/26            Wed 03/18/26
UTC 3hrly     09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00
EDT 3hrly     05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20

MAX/MIN TEMP                 69          28          44          25          45
TEMP          63 64 66 67 62 49 39 33 31 29 36 43 44 38 31 28 27 28 36 42 45 41
DEWPT         62 61 62 59 53 38 23 18 16 15 16 14 11 10 11 11 11 12 11 13 14 18
MAX/MIN RH                   61          74          26          51          28
RH            97 90 87 75 72 66 52 53 53 55 43 30 26 31 43 48 50 50 35 30 28 39
WIND DIR       S  S  S  S  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W NW NW  N  N  E SE  S  S  S
WIND SPD      13 13 16 17 16 13 13 10 10  8 10 12 12  6  5  3  2  2  2  4  4  2
WIND GUST     27 29 35 35 34 29 24                                             
CLOUDS        OV OV OV OV OV OV SC FW FW FW CL FW FW FW FW B1 SC SC SC B1 B1 SC
CLOUDS(%)    100 95 89 97 95 97 46 13 14 18  4 16 22  7 24 51 50 31 39 54 53 42
VSBY           9  9  6  8  5  9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
POP 12HR                    100          40           0           0           0
RAIN SHWRS    SC SC SC NM  O SC                                                
TSTMS         IS IS SC SC SC                                                   
MIX HGT        1  2  3  3  4  2 <1 <1  4  3  5  7  7 <1 <1 <1 <1 <1  3  3  4 <1
T WIND DIR     S  S  S  S  W  W  W NW NW NW  W  W  W  W NW  N NE  E  S  S  S  S
T WIND SPD    20 19 37 41 20 21 32 27 23 19 14 16 19 16  2  8  5  6  5 11 16  5
DISPERSION    FR             FR FR FR FR             PR PR VP VP             VP
ADI           19 34 91103 57 29 29 19 15 74 60 78 94  7  1  4  3  9 21 30 42  3
MAX LVORI      5  4  4  3  3  2  2  2  2  1  1  1  1  2  2  2  2  2  2  2  1  2
STABILITY      D  D  D  D  D  D  D  E  E  B  C  C  C  F  F  F  F  B  B  D  D  F
CEILING              1200   600  None  None  None  None  None  None  None  None
STA PRES            28.85 28.76 29.06 29.25 29.37 29.39 29.52 29.58 29.62 29.52


Date          Thu 03/19/26Fri 03/20/26Sat 03/21/26Sun 03/22/26
UTC 6hrly     06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00
EDT 6hrly     02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20

MIN/MAX TEMP       29      59      40      69      47      73      50      75
TEMP          33 32 57 54 45 41 66 61 51 49 70 67 57 52 73 69
DEWPT         21 23 31 35 36 38 41 41 42 43 46 46 45 45 45 45
RH            61 69 37 48 70 89 40 48 71 80 42 47 64 77 37 42
WIND SPD          <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15
AVG CLOUDS    SC B1 SC SC SC FW FW SC SC B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR            0       0      10       5       5       5       5       5

$$


This product is for planning and review purposes only and is not
to be substituted for an official fire weather spot forecast. The
data displayed are calculated from a 2.5 by 2.5 km digital
database and only approximates weather conditions in highly
varying terrain. Please relay any comments you have to the NWS via
email at rnk.webmaster@noaa.gov.

Below is a weather element key for this product.
(Note...winds do not reflect local terrain effects.)

DAY 1 THROUGH 3...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew point temperature
MIN/MAX RH OR MAX/MIN RH(%).........Maximum/Minimum humdity
RH(%)...............................Relative humidity
WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS)...........Wind direction
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind speed
CLOUDS(CATEGORY)....................Cloud cover category
     EXAMPLE: CL = CLEAR; FW = FEW; SC = Scattered; BK = Broken; OV = Overcast
CLOUDS(%)...........................Cloud cover as a percentage
VSBY................................Visibility value in statute miles
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER...
   TYPE...
       RAIN...........Rain
       RAIN SHWRS.....Rain showers
       TSTMS..........Thunderstorms
       DRIZZLE........Drizzle
       SNOW...........Snow
       SNOWSHWRS......Snow showers
       SLEET..........Sleet
       FRZG RAIN......Freezing rain
       FRZG DRZL......Freezing drizzle
   COVERAGE...
       IS.............Isolated
       SC.............Scattered
       NM.............Numerous
       O..............Occasional
       S..............Slight chance
       C..............Chance
       L..............Likely
       WD.............Widespread
       D..............Definite
       AR.............Areas
       PA.............Patchy

MIX HGT(THOUSANDS OF FT AGL)........Mixing height
     Example: 6 = 6000 feet; 12 = 12000 feet; <1 = Less than 1000 foot
t WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS).........Transport Wind direction
T WIND SPD(MPH).....................Transport Wind speed
DISPERSION(CATEGORY)................Smoke Dispersion category
     Values: vp =Very Poor;PR = Poor; FR = Fair; GD = Good;
ADI (INDEX).........................Atmospheric Dispersion Index
MAX LVORI (INDEX)...................Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index
STABILITY (CATEGORY)................Pasquill Turner Stability
CEILING (FT)........................Ceiling
STA PRES (INCHES MERCURY)...........Station pressure

Day 4 Through 7...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew Point temperature
RH(%)...............................Relative Humidity
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind Speed
     Example: <15 = less than 15 MPH; 15> = 15 MPH or greater
AVE CLOUDS(CATEGORY)................Average Cloud Cover Category
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER.............................See Day 1 through 3 weather descriptions