National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible Monday

Severe thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. While the entire region will have a potential, the highest potential will be east of the Blue Ridge. A lesser risk of severe storms is for this evening over portions of southwest VA and northwest NC. These storms will may be capable of producing localized damaging winds or an isolated tornado. Read More >

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EXPERIMENTAL...FIRE WEATHER POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
302 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

NCZ005-160800-
RAWS 310540
36.38N  79.70W Elev. 858 ft
302 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Date           03/15/26      Mon 03/16/26            Tue 03/17/26            Wed
UTC 3hrly     21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
EDT 3hrly     17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08

MIN/MAX TEMP                 61          70          28          44          24
TEMP          69 64 62 63 63 63 66 69 62 49 39 33 30 28 36 42 44 38 32 27 25 26
DEWPT         51 57 59 61 61 61 63 60 54 39 27 19 16 16 15 13 10  9 10 10 11 11
MIN/MAX RH                   99          69          74          25          55
RH            53 78 90 93 93 93 90 73 75 68 62 56 55 60 42 30 24 29 39 48 55 52
WIND DIR      SE SE  S  S  S  S  S  S SW  W  W  W  W  W  W  W  W NW NW  N  N  E
WIND SPD      11  8 10 11 13 13 18 19 18 14 13 11 10  8 11 13 13  5  5  3  2  2
WIND GUST                 24 25 35 36 35 27 25 21                              
CLOUDS        B2 OV OV OV OV OV B2 OV OV OV SC SC FW FW FW FW FW FW FW B1 SC SC
CLOUDS(%)     83100 97 99 97 90 81 95 94 93 48 32 24 18 12 19 13 16 24 51 50 31
VSBY          10  6  4  5  9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
POP 12HR                     70         100          20           0           0
RAIN SHWRS    IS NM SC IS IS SC SC  O NM IS                                    
TSTMS            IS IS IS IS    IS SC IS                                       
MIX HGT        4 <1 <1 <1  1  2  3  4  4  2  3  4  3  3  5  7  8 <1            
T WIND DIR    SE  E  S  S  S  S  S  S  S  W  W NW NW NW  W  W  W  W            
T WIND SPD    14  6 13 19 16 20 28 46 24 23 34 29 23 17 16 14 18 11            
DISPERSION       PR FR FR FR             GD FR FR FR             PR PR VP VP   
ADI           43  6 12 18 18 45 72123 69 31 46 20 15 65 68 72 92  5            
MAX LVORI      1  4  4  5  5  4  3  3  3  3  1  2  2  1  1  1  1  2            
STABILITY      D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  E  E  B  C  C  C  F            
CEILING               300   800   700  1100  None  None  None  None  None      
STA PRES            29.13 28.98 28.87 28.72 29.08 29.26 29.39 29.40            


Date           03/18Thu 03/19/26Fri 03/20/26Sat 03/21/26Sun 03/22/26
UTC 6hrly     18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00
EDT 6hrly     14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20

MAX/MIN TEMP       45      28      60      39      67      47      73      47      72
TEMP          42 42 34 31 57 53 45 41 64 61 51 48 69 66 53 48 68 64
DEWPT         11 17 20 22 29 34 35 35 37 39 40 41 43 40 38 37 37 37
RH            28 36 56 69 34 48 68 79 37 44 66 77 39 38 57 65 32 37
WIND SPD          <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15
AVG CLOUDS    SC B1 SC B1 SC SC B1 SC SC SC B1 B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR            0       0       5       5       5      10       5       5      10

$$


This product is for planning and review purposes only and is not
to be substituted for an official fire weather spot forecast. The
data displayed are calculated from a 2.5 by 2.5 km digital
database and only approximates weather conditions in highly
varying terrain. Please relay any comments you have to the NWS via
email at rnk.webmaster@noaa.gov.

Below is a weather element key for this product.
(Note...winds do not reflect local terrain effects.)

DAY 1 THROUGH 3...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew point temperature
MIN/MAX RH OR MAX/MIN RH(%).........Maximum/Minimum humdity
RH(%)...............................Relative humidity
WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS)...........Wind direction
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind speed
CLOUDS(CATEGORY)....................Cloud cover category
     EXAMPLE: CL = CLEAR; FW = FEW; SC = Scattered; BK = Broken; OV = Overcast
CLOUDS(%)...........................Cloud cover as a percentage
VSBY................................Visibility value in statute miles
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER...
   TYPE...
       RAIN...........Rain
       RAIN SHWRS.....Rain showers
       TSTMS..........Thunderstorms
       DRIZZLE........Drizzle
       SNOW...........Snow
       SNOWSHWRS......Snow showers
       SLEET..........Sleet
       FRZG RAIN......Freezing rain
       FRZG DRZL......Freezing drizzle
   COVERAGE...
       IS.............Isolated
       SC.............Scattered
       NM.............Numerous
       O..............Occasional
       S..............Slight chance
       C..............Chance
       L..............Likely
       WD.............Widespread
       D..............Definite
       AR.............Areas
       PA.............Patchy

MIX HGT(THOUSANDS OF FT AGL)........Mixing height
     Example: 6 = 6000 feet; 12 = 12000 feet; <1 = Less than 1000 foot
t WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS).........Transport Wind direction
T WIND SPD(MPH).....................Transport Wind speed
DISPERSION(CATEGORY)................Smoke Dispersion category
     Values: vp =Very Poor;PR = Poor; FR = Fair; GD = Good;
ADI (INDEX).........................Atmospheric Dispersion Index
MAX LVORI (INDEX)...................Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index
STABILITY (CATEGORY)................Pasquill Turner Stability
CEILING (FT)........................Ceiling
STA PRES (INCHES MERCURY)...........Station pressure

Day 4 Through 7...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew Point temperature
RH(%)...............................Relative Humidity
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind Speed
     Example: <15 = less than 15 MPH; 15> = 15 MPH or greater
AVE CLOUDS(CATEGORY)................Average Cloud Cover Category
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER.............................See Day 1 through 3 weather descriptions