National Weather Service United States Department of Commerce

Hail, Damaging Winds, and Tornadoes Possible Monday

Severe thunderstorms on Monday will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts, hail, and tornadoes. While the entire region will have a potential, the highest potential will be east of the Blue Ridge. A lesser risk of severe storms is for this evening over portions of southwest VA and northwest NC. These storms will may be capable of producing localized damaging winds or an isolated tornado. Read More >

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EXPERIMENTAL...FIRE WEATHER POINT FORECAST MATRICES
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Blacksburg VA
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

NCZ003-160800-
RAWS 310301
36.48N  80.86W Elev. 1300 ft
402 PM EDT Sun Mar 15 2026

Date           03/15/26      Mon 03/16/26            Tue 03/17/26            Wed
UTC 3hrly     21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12
EDT 3hrly     17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08 11 14 17 20 23 02 05 08

MIN/MAX TEMP                 58          61          23          40          20
TEMP          64 62 59 60 60 59 60 60 49 39 32 28 25 23 31 38 39 35 27 24 21 23
DEWPT         50 55 57 58 58 57 59 55 43 28 19 15 13 11 13 11  9  8  9 10 10 10
MIN/MAX RH                  100          63          82          29          61
RH            60 78 93 93 93 93 96 84 80 64 58 58 60 59 47 32 28 32 46 54 62 57
WIND DIR      SE  E SE  S  S  S  S  W NW NW NW NW NW  W  W  W  W NW NW  N NW  N
WIND SPD       6  4  5  6  8 10 11 10 10 10 10  8  6  5  9 10  8  2  2  1  1  0
WIND GUST     18 17 19 25 27 28 28 27 27 33 33 27 24 19 21 21 20 12            
CLOUDS        OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV B1 SC SC SC FW FW FW SC FW SC SC SC SC
CLOUDS(%)     92100100100100 92 99 92 96 59 35 32 35 22 19 19 29 22 31 49 46 47
VSBY           9  6  3  4  9  9  6 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
POP 12HR                     70          90          20           5           0
RAIN SHWRS    IS NM SC SC SC SC  O  O NM IS                                    
TSTMS            IS IS          SC IS                                          
MIX HGT        4 <1  1  1  3  2  3  4  2  3  5  4  4  4  5  7  7  2            
T WIND DIR    SE SE SE  S  S  S  S SW NW NW NW NW NW NW  W  W  W  W            
T WIND SPD    11  9 11 12 16 17 18 10 24 23 36 34 25 18 18 17 19 13            
DISPERSION       VP PR PR PR             FR FR PR PR             VP VP VP VP   
ADI           34  8 10 11 22 35 43 28 52 31 25 23 11 82 76 83146  6            
MAX LVORI      3  4  5  6  5  4  4  3  3  1  2  2  2  1  1  1  1  2            
STABILITY      D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  D  E  E  F  B  C  C  B  G            
CEILING               400   200   100     0  None  None  None  None  None      
STA PRES            27.94 27.79 27.67 27.63 27.87 28.02 28.15 28.18            


Date           03/18Thu 03/19/26Fri 03/20/26Sat 03/21/26Sun 03/22/26
UTC 6hrly     18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00 06 12 18 00
EDT 6hrly     14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20 02 08 14 20

MAX/MIN TEMP       44      26      58      37      68      44      73      45      72
TEMP          40 40 31 29 56 52 43 39 65 59 48 47 69 63 50 46 67 62
DEWPT         14 20 22 24 33 36 36 35 40 41 40 40 45 42 39 37 39 40
RH            34 44 69 81 42 54 76 85 40 51 74 76 42 46 66 71 36 44
WIND SPD          <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15     <15
AVG CLOUDS    SC SC SC B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC B1 B1 B1 SC SC SC SC SC
POP 12HR            0       5       5       5       5      10       5       5      10

$$


This product is for planning and review purposes only and is not
to be substituted for an official fire weather spot forecast. The
data displayed are calculated from a 2.5 by 2.5 km digital
database and only approximates weather conditions in highly
varying terrain. Please relay any comments you have to the NWS via
email at rnk.webmaster@noaa.gov.

Below is a weather element key for this product.
(Note...winds do not reflect local terrain effects.)

DAY 1 THROUGH 3...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew point temperature
MIN/MAX RH OR MAX/MIN RH(%).........Maximum/Minimum humdity
RH(%)...............................Relative humidity
WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS)...........Wind direction
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind speed
CLOUDS(CATEGORY)....................Cloud cover category
     EXAMPLE: CL = CLEAR; FW = FEW; SC = Scattered; BK = Broken; OV = Overcast
CLOUDS(%)...........................Cloud cover as a percentage
VSBY................................Visibility value in statute miles
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER...
   TYPE...
       RAIN...........Rain
       RAIN SHWRS.....Rain showers
       TSTMS..........Thunderstorms
       DRIZZLE........Drizzle
       SNOW...........Snow
       SNOWSHWRS......Snow showers
       SLEET..........Sleet
       FRZG RAIN......Freezing rain
       FRZG DRZL......Freezing drizzle
   COVERAGE...
       IS.............Isolated
       SC.............Scattered
       NM.............Numerous
       O..............Occasional
       S..............Slight chance
       C..............Chance
       L..............Likely
       WD.............Widespread
       D..............Definite
       AR.............Areas
       PA.............Patchy

MIX HGT(THOUSANDS OF FT AGL)........Mixing height
     Example: 6 = 6000 feet; 12 = 12000 feet; <1 = Less than 1000 foot
t WIND DIR(8 POINT COMPASS).........Transport Wind direction
T WIND SPD(MPH).....................Transport Wind speed
DISPERSION(CATEGORY)................Smoke Dispersion category
     Values: vp =Very Poor;PR = Poor; FR = Fair; GD = Good;
ADI (INDEX).........................Atmospheric Dispersion Index
MAX LVORI (INDEX)...................Low Visibility Occurrence Risk Index
STABILITY (CATEGORY)................Pasquill Turner Stability
CEILING (FT)........................Ceiling
STA PRES (INCHES MERCURY)...........Station pressure

Day 4 Through 7...
MAX/MIN TEMP OR MIN/MAX TEMP(F).....Maximum/Minimum air temperature
TEMP(F).............................Air temperature
DEWPT(F)............................Dew Point temperature
RH(%)...............................Relative Humidity
WIND SPD(MPH).......................Wind Speed
     Example: <15 = less than 15 MPH; 15> = 15 MPH or greater
AVE CLOUDS(CATEGORY)................Average Cloud Cover Category
POP 12HR(%).........................Probability for accumulating precipitation
WEATHER.............................See Day 1 through 3 weather descriptions