Heavy Snow of January 17th, 2018
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An arctic front crossed the central Appalachians Tuesday, Jan 16th, bringing a band of snow to the western slopes through Tuesday evening. Surface low pressure developed along this front across South Carolina, before . A deep upper low closed off over the Tennessee Valley late Tuesday night and slowly crossed into North Carolina Wednesday, eventually moving off the coast by Thursday morning. This produced a swath of heavier snows across the Virginia and North Carolina piedmont.
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 Snowfall Analysis from Storm |
Overview (Why More Snow)
The vast majority of the forecast models remained too progressive with the arctic front and weaker with the upper trough up until 12 hours before the event. They also exhibited weaker upper level lift over our forecast area, distributing better snow amounts east of our forecast area. Only a couple of members of the dozens we looked at started to show signs of this by Tuesday, and even these still under performed. Most models did show an increasing trend, especially late in the day Tuesday, so by evening and overnight into Wednesday, we had confidence to to increase our amounts and expand our warnings and advisories, but even still more snow fell. Also part of this was due to the colder air and more precipitation leading to higher liquid to snow ratios.
The graphic below shows a loop of the frontal systems overlayed with radar. It starts Tuesday Evening Jan 16th, and ends 24 hours until Wednesday Evening Jan 17th.
Forecast Snowfall from NWS Blacksburg Tuesday afternoon, Jan 16th, 2018
High End Snowfall Forecast (10 percent chance of happening) Tuesday afternoon, Jan 16th, 2018
Click on the other tabs for more information.
Snowfall
Snowfall ranged from 7-11 inches across southside Virginia and the northwest Piedmont of North Carolina, tapering to 2 to 6 inches north and west through Lynchburg, Roanoke and Hillsville, VA south into the NC mountains and foothills, with the lowest over the Alleghany Highlands, Southeast West Virginia, and northwest of I-81 in Virginia. The highest in the region was from east of the Triad of NC to the Triangle area north of Raleigh, NC. You can also see the snow cover via the satellite image Jan 18th.
Snowfall Analysis from Storm |
 Regional Snowfall Analysis from Storm |
 Snow Cover via Satellite |
Storm Reports
Thanks to everyone who supplied their reports
********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************
LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS
SNOWFALL OF
/INCHES/ MEASUREMENT
NORTH CAROLINA
...Alleghany County...
Sparta 4.5 838 PM 1/17 Public
3 ENE Glade Valley 4.0 130 PM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
3 NE Sparta 4.0 110 PM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
2 E Glade Valley 4.0 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
...Ashe County...
Fleetwood 4.5 1207 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 WSW Glendale Sprin 4.1 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 NE Deep Gap 4.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Transou 3.0 730 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
2 E Jefferson 2.0 630 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Caswell County...
4 ESE Quick 10.5 1156 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 SE Yanceyville 10.5 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 NNW Yanceyville 9.2 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 NNE Camp Springs 9.0 445 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
2 SW Yanceyville 7.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
...Rockingham County...
Reidsville 9.0 356 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 NE Oregon Hill 9.0 1145 PM 1/17 Public
1 E Mayfield 9.0 1000 PM 1/17 Public
3 ENE Monroeton 8.8 444 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
2 S Harrisons Crossr 8.5 456 PM 1/17 Public
1 W Draper 8.0 840 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 NW Reidsville 7.7 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Ruffin 7.5 228 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 ENE Reidsville 7.0 539 PM 1/17 Public
3 SSW Wentworth 6.5 528 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Eden 6.5 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
4 SW Bethany 6.0 239 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Stoneville 5.3 330 PM 1/17 Public
...Stokes County...
Walnut Cove 7.0 600 PM 1/17 Social Media
King 6.0 205 PM 1/17 Social Media
Lawsonville 6.0 415 PM 1/17 Public
Danbury 5.5 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Surry County...
White Plains 6.3 335 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 W Mount Airy 5.8 645 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Elkin 4.8 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Westfield 4.5 1028 AM 1/18 Social Media
1 ESE Pine Ridge 4.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 NW Pilot Mountain 4.0 100 PM 1/17 Emergency Manager
Siloam 4.0 1217 PM 1/17 Social Media
Mount Airy 3.7 241 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 SE Dobson 3.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 W Bottom 3.3 145 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...Watauga County...
4 W Blowing Rock 5.0 200 PM 1/17 Social Media
Boone 4.8 721 PM 1/17 Public
1 ESE Beech Mountain 4.8 530 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Seven Devils 4.8 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 WSW Boone 4.3 130 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 NE Boone 4.0 1245 PM 1/17 Public
1 SE Boone 4.0 630 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
2 E Boone 4.0 1150 AM 1/17 Social Media
1 W Reese 3.8 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
1 E Seven Devils 3.7 630 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Blowing Rock 3.4 910 AM 1/17 Social Media
1 ENE Lovill 3.3 906 AM 1/17 Social Media
Todd 2.8 1140 AM 1/17 Social Media
1 SE Rutherwood 2.5 815 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Valle Crucis 2.4 1100 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Wilkes County...
2 NNW Millers Creek 5.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
1 NW North Wilkesbor 5.0 530 PM 1/17 Public
Hays 5.0 200 PM 1/17 Social Media
3 N Roaring River 4.0 100 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
North Wilkesboro 4.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
2 NNE Cricket 4.0 800 PM 1/17 Public
3 NE Maple Springs 3.5 1230 PM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
5 WNW Purlear 3.5 900 PM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Yadkin County...
1 E East Bend 7.0 630 PM 1/17 Public
2 N Lone Hickory 6.0 252 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
1 ESE Courtney 4.6 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
6 E Yadkinville 4.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
VIRGINIA
...Alleghany County...
3 S Hollins 1.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Gathright Dam 0.6 700 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
Covington City 0.4 730 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Amherst County...
1 SW Amherst 4.0 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Amherst 3.5 647 PM 1/17 Broadcast Media
3 WNW Clifford 2.4 1130 AM 1/18 Public
Pedlar Dam 0.5 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Appomattox County...
Appomattox 5.6 822 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
1 ENE Concord 5.0 548 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...Bath County...
Millboro 1.5 700 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
Hot Springs 1.0 700 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
2 S Williamsville 0.3 800 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
Mountain Grove 0.2 700 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
...Bedford County...
4 SW Huddleston 5.0 600 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Bedford City 3.6 830 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
1 NE Bedford City 3.5 331 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
3 SW Moneta 3.0 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
3 SSE Goodview 2.4 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
1 NNE Bedford City 2.0 600 PM 1/17 Public
3 N Forest 1.8 713 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 NNW Coleman Falls 1.0 405 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
3 W Bedford 1.0 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Big Island 1.0 400 PM 1/17 Social Media
...Bland County...
3 SW Long Spur 0.9 1000 AM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...Botetourt County...
5 SW Fincastle 1.8 1117 AM 1/17 Social Media
8 N Roanoke 1.5 845 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
1 NNW Fincastle 1.0 700 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Buckingham County...
1 WNW Andersonville 5.0 400 AM 1/18 Public
3 NNE Gold Hill 5.0 245 PM 1/17 Public
Buckingham 5.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
2 NE Tower Hill 4.0 457 PM 1/17 Public
3 NW Buckingham 3.0 808 PM 1/17 Emergency Manager
...Campbell County...
Evington 5.5 800 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 WNW Altavista 5.0 304 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 SSW Concord 5.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
4 NW Hodges 5.0 430 PM 1/17 Public
Gladys 5.0 400 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Brookneal 5.0 910 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Lynchburg Airport 4.0 819 PM 1/17 WSET
...Carroll County...
Hillsville 3.5 1215 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 SSE Byllesby 2.6 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
5 SW Meadows Of Dan 2.0 745 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Charlotte County...
1 NW Redoak 8.7 640 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Keysville 7.1 730 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Phenix 6.5 507 PM 1/17 Social Media
...City of Buena Vista...
Buena Vista City 1.0 900 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...City of Covington...
Covington Filter Pla 0.4 700 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
...City of Danville...
Danville Airport 8.8 945 PM 1/17 ASOS
3 WNW Westover Hills 8.0 315 PM 1/17 Public
1 SSE Westover Hills 8.0 530 PM 1/17 Public
...City of Galax...
Galax City 2.5 745 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...City of Lexington...
Lexington City 0.3 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...City of Lynchburg...
1 WSW Lynchburg City 4.0 415 PM 1/17 WSET
4 N Lynchburg Airpor 3.5 339 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...City of Martinsville...
Martinsville City 6.0 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...City of Roanoke...
2 ENE Cave Spring 3.0 315 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Roanoke 2.1 415 PM 1/17 WDBJ
...Craig County...
2 S Simmonsville 1.5 516 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
New Castle 0.8 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Floyd County...
5 NNE Meadows Of Dan 4.5 441 PM 1/17 Public
4 ENE Alum Ridge 4.1 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
5 ENE Alum Ridge 4.1 519 PM 1/17 NWS Employee
Willis 4.0 514 PM 1/17 Public
2 ESE Willis 3.8 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
4 NE Alum Ridge 3.5 150 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 WSW Callaway 3.4 600 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Copper Hill 3.0 600 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Franklin County...
Snow Creek 5.5 541 PM 1/17 NWS Employee
2 NE Rocky Mount 4.0 342 PM 1/17 Public
2 WNW Burnt Chimney 4.0 325 PM 1/17 Public
3 N Penhook 3.9 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
4 W Rocky Mount 3.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
3 SW Rocky Mount 3.3 215 PM 1/17 Public
5 SSW Moneta 3.0 630 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
4 E Burnt Chimney 2.9 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Rocky Mount 2.8 845 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 SSW Wirtz 2.3 343 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
1 W Rocky Mount 2.0 140 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 SSW Wirtz 2.0 130 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 S Goodview 1.9 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
...Giles County...
3 ENE Staffordsville 0.2 710 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
1 NNE Pembroke 0.2 700 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Grayson County...
Independence 2.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
3 SSW Elk Creek 2.0 125 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 SSW Elk Creek 1.6 800 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
5 NW Baywood 1.0 830 AM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...Halifax County...
South Boston 10.0 1128 PM 1/17 WSET
Cluster Springs 9.3 647 PM 1/17 Broadcast Media
1 ESE South Boston 6.5 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 SE Dryburg 6.0 331 PM 1/17 Public
...Henry County...
Axton 6.5 350 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 WNW Ridgeway 5.0 121 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 S Oak Level 4.0 1230 PM 1/17 Public
Villa Heights 3.5 100 PM 1/17 Newspaper
...Montgomery County...
2 NE Crockett Spring 5.0 409 PM 1/17 Social Media
Pilot 4.1 600 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
2 SSE Christiansburg 4.0 730 PM 1/17 Public
3 S Christiansburg 4.0 230 PM 1/17 NWS Employee
2 S Pilot 3.6 100 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
1 NE Merrimac 3.3 300 PM 1/17 Public
1 ESE Christiansburg 3.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
1 SSE Elliston 2.8 752 PM 1/17 Social Media
1 SSW Elliston 2.8 130 PM 1/17 Public
1 SSW Blacksburg 2.5 145 PM 1/17 Public
Blacksburg 2.2 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Blacksburg NWS 2.1 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Christiansburg 2.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Merrimac 1.9 249 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
...Patrick County...
4 ESE Buffalo Ridge 4.5 1030 PM 1/17 Public
3 WSW Critz 4.0 100 PM 1/17 Public
3 WNW Charity 3.5 800 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 NE Meadows Of Dan 3.1 1250 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 SSW Meadows Of Dan 2.5 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
Meadows Of Dan 5sw 2.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Stuart 2.0 845 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Woolwine 1.5 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Pittsylvania County...
2 SE Ringgold 9.0 645 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
3 NNW Ringgold 8.8 544 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
1 SSW Ringgold 8.0 505 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Chatham 7.8 645 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
4 N Westover Hills 7.7 430 PM 1/17 Social Media
2 W Dry Fork 7.0 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
1 N Chatham 7.0 445 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
4 SSE Mt Airy 7.0 312 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
3 ESE Swansonville 6.5 556 PM 1/17 Public
1 NE Hurt 5.0 753 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter
4 NNW Pittsville 4.7 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
...Pulaski County...
2 NW Copper Valley 3.1 130 PM 1/17 Trained Spotter
Graysontown 1.5 1020 AM 1/17 Trained Spotter
2 S Dublin 1.5 730 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
2 E Pulaski 0.6 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 N Radford 0.4 915 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
...Roanoke County...
1 W Cave Spring 3.7 700 AM 1/18 CoCoRaHS
3 NNW Boones Mill 3.5 830 AM 1/18 Trained Spotter
2 SE Glenvar 3.0 317 PM 1/17 Public
Cave Spring 3.0 836 PM 1/17 Public
3 ESE Cave Spring 3.0 335 PM 1/17 Newspaper
3 E Elliston-Lafayet 3.0 305 PM 1/17 Social Media
3 W Poages Mill 2.7 300 PM 1/17 Public
3 N Salem City 2.3 610 PM 1/17 Public
Roanoke Airport 2.1 1200 AM 1/18 ASOS
8 N Roanoke 1.5 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Rockbridge County...
3 NW Vesuvius 2.0 945 AM 1/18 Public
1 SE Glasgow 1.4 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
2 ENE Collierstown 1.0 848 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Smyth County...
1 NE Marion 1.0 800 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
1 N Saltville 0.5 800 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
...Tazewell County...
Burkes Garden 0.8 600 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Richlands 0.5 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 WNW Tazewell 0.4 830 AM 1/17 CoCoRaHS
...Wythe County...
Wytheville 1.4 800 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
WEST VIRGINIA
...Greenbrier County...
3 N Rupert 4.0 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
3 N Lewisburg 0.8 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
Alderson 0.3 900 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
White Sulphur Spring 0.3 830 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Mercer County...
Princeton 0.6 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
1 SE Bluefield 0.6 700 AM 1/18 Co-Op Observer
...Monroe County...
Alderson 0.3 800 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
...Summers County...
Bluestone Lake 0.3 730 AM 1/17 Co-Op Observer
Photos:
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| Alleghany Springs, Montgomery County, VA (David Radell) |
Danville, VA (Danville Police Dept.) |
I-77 near Dobson, NC (Town of Dobson) |
South Boston, VA (South Boston Police Dept.) |
Radar:
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| Radar Loop from 4am-10am Jan 17th | Radar Loop from 10am-4pm Jan 17th |
Environment
At 500 millibars, the GFS over time showed a deepening trend with the trough, shown in Figure 1. This loop starts at the 72 hour forecast, and ends 12 hours from the event time.
The short range ensemble solutions were pretty conservative on snowfall, but trended up. The 2nd image shows the plume of the SREF members from the 21z/5pm forecast on Jan 16th. All members were still underdone at this time on snowfall forecasts.
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| Figure 1: 500 mb forecast trend from GFS | Figure 2: Jan 16th, 21z/5pm Short-range Ensemble Snow Forecast for Danviile |
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