Wyoming Spring 2019 Snowmelt Flood Potential---issued March 18th

Extremely Critical Fire Weather in New Mexico; Enhanced Severe Thunderstorm Risk in Central U.S.

High winds and very dry conditions will bring extremely critical fire weather over a large part of New Mexico today. Red Flag and High Wind Warnings have been issued. Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms may produce large to very large hail and localized damaging winds late this afternoon into evening from the eastern Central Plains to the Upper Midwest. Read More >

QUICK SYNOPSIS:

Mountain snowpack and associated snow water equivalents (SWEs) across most of Wyoming were generally above average by the middle of March. SWEs at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations (8,500’ – 10,000’) were the highest across the Little Snake, Upper North Platte, and Laramie Basins at 120 to 130 percent of median. The Tongue Watershed had SWEs at 80 to near 90 percent of median at the peak snowmelt runoff elevations.

This outlook is based on various diverse hydrological factors such as snow water equivalents (SWEs) in the mountain snowpack, basin morphology (i.e. how basins respond to snowmelt runoff), antecedent soil moisture, biological/physical factors (bark beetle kill/spruce blight///fire burn scars), low elevation snow depths, and likely temperature and precipitation trends during late spring/early summer.

HIGHLIGHTS:

…Moderate potential for snowmelt runoff flooding is forecasted along the lower portions of the Upper North Platte River Basin (near Saratoga) and along the lower portions of the Laramie Watershed (near Laramie)…

… Moderate potential for flooding due to snowmelt is also expected over a few tributary basins along the Snake River Drainage…

…All other of headwater basins across Wyoming can expect a generally Low potential for flooding due to springtime snowmelt runoff...

The current Wyoming Spring 2019 Snowmelt Runoff Flood Potential Outlook graphic: