A Flood Watch will be in effect for Maricopa County, Northwest Pinal County, and Southern Gila County Today. Showers and thunderstorms will develop across portions of Southern and Central AZ this morning, with the highest rain rates and best coverage of showers and storms likely during the afternoon into the early evening. Not all areas will see heavy rain, but isolated thunderstorm activity will result in locally heavy rainfall with rates upwards of 1-2" per hour leading to an enhanced potential for flash flooding.
A longer duration and widespread rain event is shaping up for Saturday night through Sunday, with moderate to at times heavy rain. Although the thunderstorm potential will be low, there could be some embedded convection and lightning during this event. Rainfall will be most persistent over southwest-facing slopes and higher terrain areas, which could receive upwards of 2"-4"+ over 24-36 hours. Rises in area washes, creeks, streams, and rivers can be expected at a minimum.
There is a high chance (60-99%) that much of southcentral AZ will receive around 0.50"-1.00" today through Sunday. There is even around a 40-80% chance that some areas NE of Phoenix could receive 2.00"+ by Sunday.
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