The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has placed much of southeastern and south-central Arizona, including the Phoenix and Tucson metro areas under a slight risk (2/5) for severe weather this afternoon and evening. The main threats with any storm will be strong, damaging wind gusts up to 80 mph with a lower threat for hail.
A similar pattern in thunderstorm development is anticipated this afternoon, with storms initially forming in the typically favored Northern and Eastern AZ high terrain as well as portions of Southeast AZ. Storm chances then spread to the lower deserts of South-Central AZ (including the Phoenix Metro) by the evening and linger into the overnight period. Thunderstorm hazards will be similar to that of Sunday/Sunday night, with strong, gusty outflow winds that could bring dense dust with them, locally heavy rainfall, and frequent lightning. There is once again a low chance for a few strong to severe, isolated afternoon T-storms to form in Southeast CA (Imperial County).
Temperatures gradually cool throughout the week before warming back up heading into next week. Deeper moisture will lead to elevated chances for shower and thunderstorm activity through the middle of the week before chances decrease noticeably by the end of the week through next weekend as drier air filters into the region.
An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect through this evening across western Imperial County as well as along the Lower Colorado River Valley due to heat indices peaking between 110-120 degrees.
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