Drought Information for Arizona and Southeast California (Updated September 21, 2018)

MODEST DROUGHT IMPROVEMENTS CONTINUE AS LOCALLY BENEFICIAL MONSOON RAINS AFFECT THE REGION

Updated on Friday, September 21, 2018 - Mark O'Malley

Summary:

Over the past month, scattered showers and thunderstorms have continued over parts of Arizona bringing additional modest drought relief. Parts of northern and central Arizona have seen the most persistent rainfall, and subsequently the most benefits from drought impacts. However as is typical with summer thunderstorms, rainfall coverage has not been uniform and not all aspects of drought impacts are alleviated by these brief, heavy rains. Unfortunately, almost all thunderstorm activity remained in the central and eastern parts of Arizona and southwest Arizona and southeast California saw little to no rainfall and worsening drought conditions. 

Precipitation deficits and impacts from drought have been so extreme since last year, the beneficial monsoon rains have only started the drought relief process. As a result, extreme and exceptional drought conditions have persisted over parts of the area with improvements only where the heaviest rainfall has occurred. A good followup of fall and winter rain and snow will be necessary for more expansive improvement in drought conditions to be realized heading into next year.  

Local Area Affected:

The National Drought Monitor depicts some modest drought improvements over Arizona this month, yet minor degradation in SE California. Although Extreme and Exceptional drought conditions continue to persist over large parts of Arizona, the areal coverage continues to decrease. Severe and moderate drought conditions exist over the remainder Arizona. Extreme drought remains in parts of far southeast California with Severe drought holding firm through the rest of the southeast California deserts. 

Extreme Drought (D3) - across much of central and western Arizona, as well as Southeast California

In Arizona: far eastern and western Maricopa, northeast Pinal, southern Gila, La Paz, and Yuma counties

In California: Imperial and southeast Riverside counties

Severe Drought (D2) -  parts of south-central Arizona and southeast California

In Arizona: parts of central and southern Maricopa, and western Pinal counties

In California: much of central Riverside County

Local Climatology:

Below are water year precipitation totals since October 2017 and totals
since the beginning of 2018 from selected locations across Arizona and
southeast California:

The drought conditions have been exacerbated by the fact that the majority of Arizona (and a good deal of the entire Southwest) is experiencing its warmest Water Year (Oct 1st-August 31st) in recorded history (since 1895).

The U.S. Drought Monitor is a weekly collaborative effort between a number of federal agencies including NOAA/NWS, U.S. Department of Agriculture and the National Drought Mitigation Center. Details and explanations of the Drought Monitor can found at the web site:

http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/ 

The categories of drought are defined as follows:

Abnormally Dry (D0) - Going into drought: short-term dryness slowing planting, growth of crops or pastures; fire risk above average. Coming out of drought: some lingering water deficits; pastures or crops not fully recovered.

Moderate Drought (D1) - Some damage to crops, pastures; fire risk high; streams, reservoirs, or wells low, some water shortages developing or imminent, voluntary water use restrictions requested.

Severe Drought (D2) - Crop or pasture losses likely; fire risk very high; water shortages common; water restrictions imposed.

Extreme Drought (D3) - Major crop/pasture losses; extreme fire danger; widespread water shortages or restrictions.

Exceptional Drought (D4) - Exceptional and widespread crop/pasture losses; exceptional fire risk; shortages of water in reservoirs, streams, and wells, creating water emergencies.

State and Local Actions:

A Drought Emergency Declaration remains in effect for the state of Arizona as signed by the governor in accordance with the Arizona Drought Preparedness Plan. The continuation of this Drought Emergency has been recommended by the Drought Interagency Coordinating Group in their bi-annual meeting on May 29, 2018. This recommendation is based on long term precipitation deficits, along with ongoing negative impacts across the state. In northeast Arizona, the Navajo Nation has issued an emergency drought declaration to deal with extreme drought conditions. 

Additional information concerning the drought in Arizona can be obtained via the Arizona Department of Water Resources web site at:

https://new.azwater.gov/drought

Additional information concerning the drought in California can be obtained via the California Department of Water Resources web site at:

http://www.water.ca.gov/waterconditions

River, Stream Flow, and Reservoir Conditions:

Some smaller unregulated streams have responded to the generous monsoon rainfall, though there is a wide range in flows obviously depending on proximity to the more prolific storms. This range of much below to above seasonal flow rate is quite typical during the monsoon season. Otherwise, much of the Colorado River and other highly regulated rivers remain in a near normal flow rates due to ongoing management efforts.

Reservoir levels remain well below levels at the same time last year, and similar to levels in 2016. Spring runoff was near record low levels and the region has experienced little to no additional reservoir re-charge this year as monsoon season rains only offered limited benefits. 

Hourly and forecast river stages out to 90 days can be found at the National Weather Service's (NWS) Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) web page:

http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=psr

Additional Current stream and river stages may be viewed at the following USGS Web Site:

http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

Agriculture Impacts:

With prolonged drought conditions, impacts have included increased water hauling necessary for farmers and ranchers, distressed vegetation, and loss of forage acreage.  Livestock on regional ranches have suffered the greatest impacts from drought and many ranchers are selling off higher amounts of their herds this year. 

With monsoon rainfall, range land and pasture conditions continue to show local improvements, and some stock ponds are beginning to refill. However, 65% of the pasture and range land still is rated poor or very poor. Just one month ago, around 83% of range land was rated poor or very poor versus just 18% at this time last year. 

For additional information on agriculture impacts may be viewed at the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS Web Site:

        https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics_by_State/
index.php

Fire Danger Hazards:

The National Fire Danger Rating: Moderate to High category for the entire area

The current KDBI: Southwest Arizona and southeast California:

Ranging from Extreme in SE California and much of SW Arizona to High towards  central Arizona, and Moderate in the higher elevations north and east of Phoenix

Palmer drought severity index (PDSI):
The current weekly PDSI shows minor deterioration across the central part of Arizona resulting from a period of thunderstorm inactivity during the first half of September. In the northeast portion of Arizona as well as SE California, prolonged dryness has kept Extreme Drought (-4.0 or greater) conditions valid per this PDSI measure. 

Recent rainfall and larger increases in humidity levels over the summer have allowed 100-hour dead fuel moisture values to improve above 10% for much of the higher elevation areas of central and eastern Arizona. Smaller sized 10-hour dead fuel moisture values have been oscillating around 5% for the past month, though have generally been improving with time towards the end of the summer. 

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is a drought index that is specifically related to fire potential. The KDBI is broken into four categories which indicate the susceptibility of ground fuels to fire danger. Below are the four categories and a brief description of each.

KBDI and Dead Fuel Moisture data can be found on the Wildland Fire Assessment System (WFAS) web site at:

http://www.wfas.net

Precipitation/Temperature Outlooks:

The 8-14 day temperature outlook for Sept 29-Oct 5 period calls for better chances of above average temperatures and the best chance of near average rainfall. The 30 day outlook for October 2018 (not shown) indicates better chances for above average temperatures and a very slight chance of above average precipitation. The 90 day outlook for the period October through December 2018 indicates much better chances for above average temperatures and enhanced odds of above average precipitation. 

ENSO has been maintaining a neutral state and has had little overall impact on the monsoon season patterns. However, we are beginning to transitioning to an El Nino episode and confidence is now fairly high that equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures will reach El Nino thresholds by this fall season. El Nino should peak during the middle of the winter, but only reach a weak and maybe briefly moderate category. While many other factors contribute to the atmospheric circulation pattern, there may be a slight tilting of the odds towards wetter conditions later in the year due to this El Nino cycle. 

For updated temperature and precipitation probabilities consult the following Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Web Sites:

8 to 14 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/
products/predictions/814day/

30 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
/products/predictions/30day/

90 Day Outlook:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products
/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=01

Questions or Comments:

If you have any questions or comments about this information
please contact:

Mark O’Malley
Climate and Drought Services
National Weather Service-Phoenix
Co-Chair Arizona Drought Monitoring and Technical Committee
mark.omalley@noaa.gov

Acknowledgements:

The Drought Monitor is a multi-agency effort involving NOAA’s National
Weather Service and National Centers for Environmental Information, 
the USDA, state and regional center climatologists and the national
drought mitigation center. Information for this statement has been gathered
from NWS and FAA observation sites, cooperative and volunteer observations,
USDAFS, the USDA and USGS.

Related Websites :

NWS - http://www.weather.gov/phoenix

CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Drought Monitor - http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

USGS - http://waterwatch.usgs.gov/

COE - http://www.spk.usace.army.mil/