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Weather Risk Outlook

The Weather Risk Matrix and examples of weather situations for the five impact levels are below for you to use as a reference.

The Weather Risk Matrix

Impact Levels

Wind Snow Ice Cold Urban Flooding River Flooding Heat Thunderstorms Marine and Coastal Hazards

IMPACT LEVEL	Wind	Snow	Ice	Cold	Urban Flooding and Debris Flows	River Flooding	Heat	Thunderstorms	Marine and Coastal Hazards
1 No Impactful Weather.	• No threat of wind damage	• No snow	• No ice	• No threat of cold	• No threat of urban flooding or debris flows	• No threat of river flooding	• Green (0) HeatRisk; Little to no heat risk Do NOT use impact/likelihood table. Use NWS HeatRisk	• No threat of thunderstorms	Marine: • Small Craft Advisory
2 Potential threat to lives & property if no or incorrect actions are taken. Localized impacts on commerce are possible.	• Wind gusts 35-45 mph inland, 40-50 mph for inland coastal communities, 50-60 mph for beaches and headlands	• Snow below 1000ft with little to no accumulation on roads • Sub-advisory level snow at pass level	• Freezing rain that is occurring when road temps are above freezing (e.g. little to no travel impacts) • Patchy road ice not associated with freezing rain	• Low temperatures near 32F for elevations below 1000ft • Apparent temperatures 25-32F for elevations below 1000ft • Apparent temperatures between -9F and 0F from the Cascade foothills to the Cascade passes	• Hourly rain rates < 0.25"/hr (winter) or < 0.5"/hr (summer), producing minor and isolated urban flooding in low-lying flood prone areas • 2" in 24 hours for elevations in urban areas	• Isolated minor river flooding	• Yellow (1) HeatRisk; Minor heat risk; focus on levels in population centers & valleys Do NOT use impact/likelihood table. Use NWS HeatRisk *Email briefing: Include in Matrix but not in Details section	• SPC General Thunder risk (set your thunderstorm risk level to MINOR in your email briefing)	Marine: • High-end Small Craft Advisory Coastal Areas: • Enhanced threat of sneaker waves • High Surf Advisory
3 Potential threat to lives & property if no or incorrect actions are taken. Impacts on commerce are possible.	• Wind gusts 45-55 mph inland, 50-60 mph inland coastal communities, 60-70 mph for beaches and headlands	• Advisory level snow amounts	• Freezing rain occurring when road temps are below freezing and road impacts are expected: Widespread ice accumulation of 0.01-0.24" • Widespread road ice not associated with freezing rain	• Low temperatures 25-30F for elevations below 1000ft • Apparent temperatures 15-25F for elevations below 1000ft • Apparent temperatures between -19F and -10F from the Cascade foothills to the Cascade passes NOTE: If during growing season (Apr 1-Oct 31), add hard freeze/agricultural impacts to your email briefing details	• 0.25"/hr for 1-2 hours (winter) or 0.5"/hr for 1-2 hours (summer) • 0.5"/hr for 1 hour (winter) or 1.0"/hr for 1 hour (summer) • 3" in 24 hours for elevations in urban areas	• Widespread minor to moderate river flooding	• Orange (2) HeatRisk; Moderate heat risk; focus on levels in population centers & valleys Do NOT use impact/likelihood table. Use NWS HeatRisk	• SPC Marginal risk (set your thunderstorm risk level to MODERATE in your email briefing)	Marine: • Gales and/or Hazardous Seas of 16-19 ft • Isolated waterspouts (1 or 2 expected) Coastal Areas: • High Surf Warning • Coastal Flood Advisory for tidal overflow
4 Actions likely needed to save lives and/or property. Significant impacts to commerce possible.	• Wind gusts of 55-65 mph inland, 60-70 mph inland coastal communities, 70-80 mph beaches and headlands	• Warning level mountain snow • 1 to 3" of snow in urban areas below 1000 ft during the middle of a week day (impacts to commutes) • 3 to 6" of snow in urban areas below 1000 ft overnight or on weekends • Near blizzard conditions, but visibilities are above 1/4 mile so no Blizzard Warning is expected	• Ice storms with widespread ice accumulation between 0.25-0.5" or 0.1-0.25" of ice accumulation in populated areas along the I-5 corridor (Kelso to Eugene)	• Low temperatures 15-25F for elevations below 1000ft for two days or more • Any time apparent temperatures reach 5-15F for elevations below 1000 ft • Long duration extreme cold (at least 3 days in a row), but not historic • Apparent temperatures between -29F and -20F from the Cascade foothills to the Cascade passes NOTE: If during growing season (Apr 1-Oct 31), mention hard freeze/agricultural impacts in email briefing	• 0.25"/hr for 3-4 hours (winter) or 0.5"/hr for 3-4 hours (summer) • 0.5"/hr for 2 hours (winter) or 1.0"/hr for 2 hours (summer) • Debris flow criteria met, Flash Flood Watches/Warnings may be needed over burn areas • 4" in 24 hours for urban areas	• Widespread moderate and major river flooding	• Red (3) HeatRisk; Major heat risk; focus on levels in population centers & valleys Do NOT use impact/likelihood table. Use NWS HeatRisk	• SPC Slight risk (set your thunderstorm risk level to MAJOR in your email briefing)	Marine: • Storm Force winds and/or hazardous seas at or over 20 ft • Freezing Spray Advisory • Several waterspouts expected (3 or more) Coastal Areas: • Coastal Flood Warning
5 Actions required to save lives and/or property. Significant and extended impacts to commerce.	• Wind gusts over 65 mph inland, over 70 mph inland coastal communities, over 80 mph beaches and headlands • Extreme fire weather conditions and critically dry fuels warranting a Particularly Dangerous Situation (PDS) Red Flag Watch or Warning	• Blizzard conditions with Blizzard Warnings expected • High-end snowstorms for elevations below 1000ft with hourly snow rates over 1"/hr during the morning and/or evening commute and snow totals around 6" or more • Historic mountain snow amounts	• High end ice storms with widespread tree damage/power outages expected due to ice accumulations of 0.5" or higher	• Low temperatures below 15F for elevations below 1000ft for 2 days or more • Any time apparent temperatures reach below 5F for elevations below 1000ft • Historic long duration extreme cold event • Apparent temperatures of -30F or colder from the Cascade foothills to the Cascade passes NOTE: If during growing season (Apr 1-Oct 31), mention hard freeze/agricultural impacts in email briefing	• 0.5"/hr or more for over 3 hours or more (winter) or 1.0"/hr for 3 hours or more (summer) • 5" in 24 hours for urban areas	• Widespread major or record flooding with impacts to major population areas • Imminent dam failure	• Magenta (4) HeatRisk; Extreme heat risk; focus on levels in population centers & valleys Do NOT use impact/likelihood table. Use NWS HeatRisk	• SPC Enhanced, Moderate, or High risk (set your thunderstorm risk level to EXTREME in your email briefing)	Marine: • Hurricane force winds • Heavy freezing spray Coastal Areas: • Significant coastal flooding >3 ft (high-end Coastal Flood Warning)

Portland Weather Matrix