Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date               Wed 07/17      Thu 07/18                               Fri 07/19
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    17   35   58   50   35   47   61   42   15   20   45   52   35   36   55   46
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    1    1    1    2    1    1
Dom Period (s)      2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3
Chance Precip      40   70   60   30   30   30   30   10   10   10    5    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Mod High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr
Temperature        82   78   76   74   74   75   77   78   78   77   76   74   72   72   75   76
Heat Index         87                                                                           
Wind (mph)       S 14SW 10  W 7  S 7 SW 7 NW 7  N 7  N 6  S 6 SW 5 NW 6  N 9  N 9  N 9  N 6  E 5
Wind Gust          21   15                  12   12                            14               


Date                         Sat 07/20           Sun 07/21           Mon 07/22
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    14   29   18   26    9   18   23   25   21   18   33   20   31
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      2    2    2    6    6   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0   10   10   20   10   10    5    5   10   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        77   74   71   77   78   76   73   77   79   76   73   78   78
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)        S 6 SW 6  W 3  S 5 S 10 SW 7  W 5 SW 6  S 9 SW 6  W 5  E 6  S 8
Wind Gust

Coastal Ocean

Date               Wed 07/17      Thu 07/18                               Fri 07/19
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod High High High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    36   48   57   54   50   53   57   47   32   35   47   52   48   46   51   45
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    2    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    4    4    4    4    5    3    3    3    4    4    4    4    5
Chance Precip      30   60   60   40   30   30   40   30   20   10    5    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Mod High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr
Temperature        79   75   74   73   72   74   76   75   75   74   73   72   70   71   74   74
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       S 17SW 15 SW 9 SW 7 SW 8  W 7  W 7 SE 7  S 7  S 5  W 5  N 7  N 9 N 10 NE 9  E 7
Wind Gust          25   22                                                                      


Date                         Sat 07/20           Sun 07/21           Mon 07/22
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    27   36   32   34   21   25   32   34   33   28   37   28   35
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    4    8    9   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0   20   20   20   20   10   10   10   10   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        74   72   69   76   76   73   71   76   77   74   71   76   76
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)       SE 7  S 5 SW 3  S 6  S 9 SW 6  W 5 SW 6  S 9 SW 5  W 3 SE 6  S 8
Wind Gust

Coastal Atlantic

Date               Wed 07/17      Thu 07/18                               Fri 07/19
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod High High High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    36   53   63   60   55   59   62   51   31   38   57   60   52   51   60   51
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    1    1    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    1    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    4    4    4    4    5    3    3    3    4    4    4    4    5
Chance Precip      20   60   60   40   30   30   40   40   20   10   10    0    5    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Low High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld
Temperature        77   75   73   72   71   73   75   75   74   73   71   71   69   70   73   73
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       S 16SW 14 SW 9 SW 8 SW 7  W 7  W 7  S 7  S 7  S 3  W 3  N 6  N 8  N 9 NE 8  E 6
Wind Gust          25   22                                                                      


Date                         Sat 07/20           Sun 07/21           Mon 07/22
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    20   38   30   42   19   31   38   43   36   30   43   31   39
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    1    2    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    4    9   10   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0   20   20   20   20   20   10   20   20   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        73   70   69   75   74   72   70   75   75   72   70   75   75
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)       SE 7  S 3 SW 2  S 5  S 9  S 5  W 3 SW 6  S 8 SW 5  W 3 SE 6  S 8
Wind Gust

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date               Wed 07/17      Thu 07/18                               Fri 07/19
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod High High High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    40   59   73   71   63   66   72   57   32   38   64   70   57   53   66   54
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4
Chance Precip      20   70   60   50   30   30   40   40   30   10   10    0    5    0    0    0
TSTM Potential    Low High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        79   76   74   72   72   74   76   77   76   74   72   71   70   71   75   75
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       S 15 S 13 SW 9 SW 8 SW 7  W 6 NW 7 SW 6  S 6  S 3  W 3  N 5  N 8  N 9 NE 8  E 6
Wind Gust          23   21   14        12                                           14          


Date                         Sat 07/20           Sun 07/21           Mon 07/22
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    19   35   29   41   21   30   41   42   37   25   43   29   41
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    8    8   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0    5   20   20   30   20   20   20   20   20   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   71   70   76   75   72   70   76   76   73   71   76   76
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)       SE 6  S 3 SW 2 SE 5  S 8  S 5  W 3  W 5  S 7  S 5 SW 3 SE 6 SE 8
Wind Gust

Delaware Beaches

Date               Wed 07/17      Thu 07/18                               Fri 07/19
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    13   15   30   34   24   19   24   17    9    8   18   27   20   14   19   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    4
Chance Precip      20   60   60   50   40   30   50   60   40   20   10    5    5    5    0    0
TSTM Potential    Low High High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High  Mod  Low None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        83   81   78   75   75   75   78   76   77   76   75   73   72   72   74   74
Heat Index         90   87                                                                      
Wind (mph)       S 15 S 13 SW 9 SW 7 SW 7  W 7 NW 6 NE 6 SE 6  S 3  W 3 NW 5  N 8 N 10 NE 9 NE 7
Wind Gust          20   20   16   12                                                            


Date                         Sat 07/20           Sun 07/21           Mon 07/22
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability     6    7    8   13   12   12   21   16   16    8   17   10   17
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    8    8   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip       0    0    0   10   40   30   30   20   20   20   30   20   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None  Low   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        75   73   71   77   76   74   72   76   77   75   73   77   77
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)        E 6  S 3  S 2 SE 5 SE 7  S 5  W 3 NE 6 SE 7  S 5 SW 3 SE 6 SE 7
Wind Gust