Philadelphia, PA/Mt. Holly, NJ Surf Forecast Matrix

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the Philadelphia/Mt Holly forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Eastern Monmouth
Coastal Ocean
Coastal Atlantic
Atlantic Coastal Cape May
Delaware Beaches

Eastern Monmouth

Date               Sun 09/29      Mon 09/30                               Tue 10/01
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High
Rip Probability    75   59   51   47   46   46   49   53   59   66   75   80   72   76   84   89
Surf Height (ft)    3    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip      30   10    5    5    5   10   10   10   10   10   10   10   10   20   20   20
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld
Temperature        65   65   65   65   64   64   66   67   67   66   65   65   64   64   66   66
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)      NE 16NE 15NE 12NE 13NE 13NE 14NE 14 E 13 E 13 E 10 E 10 E 10 E 13 E 13 E 14 E 14
Wind Gust          23   22   20   21   22   22   22   21   21   16   15   16        18   21   22


Date                         Wed 10/02           Thu 10/03           Fri 10/04
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    91   91   79   88  100  100   77   66   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    3    2    3    2    2    2    2    2    2    2   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      20   20   10   10   10    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        65   65   63   65   66   64   62   67   69   66   62   68   70
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)       E 14 E 10 NE 9  E 9  E 6  E 5  N 6  E 6 SE 6  S 5  W 5  S 6  S 7
Wind Gust          22   15   14   14   13                  12                  14

Coastal Ocean

Date               Sun 09/29      Mon 09/30                               Tue 10/01
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod High High High High High High High
Rip Probability    56   49   45   43   42   42   43   46   49   53   57   60   57   60   65   68
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip      20   10   10   10   10   20   10   10   10   20   20   20   20   30   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld
Temperature        68   67   67   66   66   66   68   68   68   67   66   66   65   66   67   67
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)      NE 18NE 17NE 15NE 16NE 15NE 14NE 16NE 16NE 15NE 14NE 13 E 13 E 15NE 15 E 17 E 17
Wind Gust          25   25   24   25   24   23   25   25   24                       20   22   23


Date                         Wed 10/02           Thu 10/03           Fri 10/04
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    69   70   67   69   75   74   63   57   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      30   20   10    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        66   66   64   67   67   66   63   67   70   66   62   69   71
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)      NE 17NE 13NE 12NE 12NE 10 NE 6  N 7 NE 7 SE 9  S 6  W 6  S 7  S 9
Wind Gust          24                                                          14

Coastal Atlantic

Date               Sun 09/29      Mon 09/30                               Tue 10/01
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk High  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    40   25   19   16   15   17   20   26   32   39   47   51   39   44   53   58
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    1    2    2    1    1    1    2    2    1    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip      20   10   10   10   20   20   10   10   10   20   20   30   30   30   30   40
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld
Temperature        70   68   68   67   67   66   68   68   67   67   67   67   66   66   67   67
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       N 16NE 16NE 16NE 15NE 15NE 15NE 15NE 17NE 16NE 14NE 13NE 13NE 15NE 14 E 16NE 16
Wind Gust          23   24   24   24   24   23   24   26   25   20   18        20   20   23   23


Date                         Wed 10/02           Thu 10/03           Fri 10/04
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    60   60   49   59   70   70   52   44   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      40   20   10    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        67   66   64   68   67   66   63   67   69   66   63   69   71
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)      NE 16NE 12NE 10NE 10NE 10 NE 6  N 6 NE 7 SE 8  S 6  W 5 SE 7  S 9
Wind Gust          24             15   15                                      14

Atlantic Coastal Cape May

Date               Sun 09/29      Mon 09/30                               Tue 10/01
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk High  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    42   22   14   10   10   11   15   20   28   37   48   54   42   47   57   63
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip      20   10   10   10   20   20   20   20   30   20   20   40   40   40   40   40
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mcld  Cld  Cld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld
Temperature        71   69   69   68   67   67   69   69   68   67   67   67   66   66   68   67
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       N 16NE 16NE 15NE 15NE 16NE 14NE 15NE 17NE 17NE 14NE 13NE 13NE 15NE 14 E 16NE 16
Wind Gust          23   24   24   24   25   23   24   26   26   21   18   18   21   21   23   23


Date                         Wed 10/02           Thu 10/03           Fri 10/04
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    64   63   48   64   85   87   62   49   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      40   20   10    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        67   66   64   68   69   66   63   68   70   67   63   69   71
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)      NE 16NE 10 NE 9 NE 9 NE 9 NE 6  N 6 NE 6 SE 7  S 5  W 5 SE 6 SE 8
Wind Gust          24   16   14   14   14                  12                  14

Delaware Beaches

Date               Sun 09/29      Mon 09/30                               Tue 10/01
EDT 3hrly          17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14   17   20   23   02   05   08   11   14

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod  Mod
Rip Probability    37   27   24   23   23   25   28   32   37   44   51   57   52   53   57   58
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Chance Precip      20   10    5   10   10   10   20   30   30   30   30   50   50   50   50   50
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None  Low None None  Low None
Cloud Cover      Pcld Mcld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld Mcld  Cld Mcld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld Mcld  Cld  Cld
Temperature        72   71   70   70   69   69   70   70   69   70   68   69   68   68   68   68
Heat Index                                                                                      
Wind (mph)       N 16NE 17NE 16NE 16NE 17NE 16NE 16NE 17NE 18NE 16NE 14NE 14 E 15NE 15 E 16NE 16
Wind Gust          21   23   24   25   25   25   24   26   28   21             20   21   22   23


Date                         Wed 10/02           Thu 10/03           Fri 10/04
EDT 6hrly          17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17   23   05   11   17

Rip Probability    59   58   47   57   73   74   65   57   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2   MM   MM
Dom Period (s)      0   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Chance Precip      50   20    5    5    5    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM   MM
Cloud Cover      Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        68   68   66   69   69   67   64   67   70   67   64   70   72
Heat Index                                                                       
Wind (mph)      NE 17NE 12NE 10NE 10 NE 9 NE 6  N 6 NE 7 SE 7 SE 5 SW 5  E 7 SE 8
Wind Gust          22             15