The extremely dangerous heat wave continues across the East Coast and much of the South-Central U.S. today. Record high temperatures are expected for some areas especially across the Mid-Atlantic where extreme heat risk conditions reside. There is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) of severe thunderstorms today for the northern Mid-Atlantic into portions of southern New England. Read More >
Overview
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A strong storm affected the mid-Atlantic and much of the Eastern Seaboard from January 16-17, 2022. A strong negative tilt trough over the Southeast US spurred strong cyclogenesis near the Carolina coast late on January 16. This low would proceed to quickly deepen as it moved northward that evening and night. Upper level steering patterns caused the low to take an “inside runner” track which kept the low center inland of the coast. A very strong easterly low level jet developed in between the strengthening low and a departing high pressure center to the north. With the center of the low tracking west of the region and an influx of marine air courtesy of the low level jet, precipitation type was a major forecast challenge in this event. An Arctic air mass had been in place in advance of this system, but due to the aforementioned factors, that air mass rapidly modified on the 16th. As precipitation arrived, temperatures remained cold enough for it to begin as snow in most areas away from the coast. However, a rapid transition from snow to mixed precipitation to rain occurred in most areas within hours. Frozen precipitation held on for longer across the interior, where some higher snowfall amounts occurred (see the map to the right or the snowfall reports tab). As the low center passed just to our west and began to occlude, an occluded front moved through the region. As this happened, an area of heavier precipitation with embedded convective elements moved through eastern New Jersey and the coastal waters. This convection allowed for some local enhancement of downward momentum transport near the coast. With extremely strong winds present aloft, this led to some locally damaging convective wind gusts. With the strong onshore flow and a full moon occurring on the 17th, coastal flooding was also a significant factor in this event, and is discussed more under the Coastal Flooding tab. All in all, this was a highly dynamic storm with an unusually wide variety of hazard types. Various aspects of the storm are covered throughout this page. Information here should be considered preliminary, and this page may continue to be updated with additional information.
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 Map of snowfall reports for the January 16-17, 2022 event, courtesy of the NWS Eastern Region Headquarters office. This system brought accumulating snow to much of the interior eastern US. |
Synoptic Overview at 00z 17 Jan 2022 (courtesy of SPC)
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| Figure 1: 250-mb analysis | Figure 2: 300-mb analysis | Figure 3: 500-mb analysis |
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| Figure 4: 700-mb analysis | Figure 5: 850-mb analysis | Figure 6: 925-mb analysis |
Synoptic Overview at 12z 17 Jan 2022 (courtesy of SPC)
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| Figure 7: 250-mb analysis | Figure 8: 300-mb analysis | Figure 9: 500-mb analysis |
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| Figure 10: 700-mb analysis | Figure 11: 850-mb analysis | Figure 12: 925-mb analysis |
Surface Maps (courtesy of WPC)
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| Figure 13: 00z surface map | Figure 14: 03z surface map | Figure 15: 06z surface map |
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| Figure 16: 09z surface map | Figure 17: 12z surface map | Figure 18: 15z surface map |
Observed Soundings (Courtesy of SPC)
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| Figure 19: Long Island, NY sounding from 00z January 17. | Figure 20: Sterling, VA sounding from 00z January 17. | Figure 21: Wallops Island, VA sounding from 00z January 17. |
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| Figure 22: Long Island, NY sounding from 12z January 17. | Figure 23: Sterling, VA sounding from 12z January 17. | Figure 24: Wallops Island, VA sounding from 12z January 17. |
Click here for a county warning area based plot of local storm reports and warnings/advisories issued for the 16-17 January 2022 event.
NOUS41 KPHI 171843 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-180643- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 143 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 ...SNOWFALL REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Smyrna 0.8 in 0600 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 3 SW Magnolia 0.5 in 0530 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Smyrna 0.4 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet ...New Castle County... Newark 2.0 in 0710 PM 01/16 Cocorahs Hockessin 1.7 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Hockessin 1.1 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Talley 1.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet New Castle County Airport 1.0 in 0700 AM 01/17 ASOS Claymont 0.9 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet 3 WNW Saint Georges 0.8 in 0600 PM 01/16 Public Middletown 0.8 in 0650 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter White Clay Creek 0.8 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Greenville 0.7 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Glasgow 0.7 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Newark 0.7 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Blackbird 0.6 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet New Castle 0.6 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Prices Corner 0.5 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet ...Maryland... ...Kent County... Galena 2.2 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public ...Queen Annes County... Stevensville 0.7 in 0700 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Talbot County... Easton 0.5 in 0400 PM 01/16 Public ...New Jersey... ...Burlington County... Delran 0.7 in 0700 PM 01/16 Public Florence 0.5 in 1122 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 1 WNW South Jersey Regional 0.4 in 0730 PM 01/16 NWS Employee 2 NNW South Jersey Regional 0.4 in 0740 PM 01/16 CO-OP Observer Mount Holly WFO 0.2 in 0700 PM 01/16 Official NWS Obs ...Camden County... Bellmawr 0.4 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Gloucester County... Thorofare 0.8 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public Sewell 0.3 in 0645 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Hunterdon County... Annandale 5.0 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public Lebanon 3.1 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Stanton 2.4 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Flemington 2.1 in 0950 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 SSE Stanton 1.5 in 0910 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Mercer County... Hopewell 2.3 in 0910 PM 01/16 Public Woodsville 1.4 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public 1 NE Hamilton Square 0.5 in 0800 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Ewing 0.5 in 0845 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Middlesex County... Hopelawn 1.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter North Brunswick 0.8 in 0845 PM 01/16 Public Metuchen 0.8 in 0900 AM 01/17 Public ...Morris County... Green Pond 5.5 in 1031 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Lake Hopatcong 4.8 in 0430 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Butler 4.3 in 0100 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Budd Lake 3.6 in 1230 AM 01/17 Public 2 NNE Brookside 3.5 in 1219 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Montville 3.5 in 1230 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Succasunna 3.4 in 1130 PM 01/16 Public Randolph 3.2 in 1130 PM 01/16 Cocorahs 2 ESE Morris Plains 3.0 in 1033 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Boonton 2.9 in 1125 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media Chatham 2.3 in 1035 PM 01/16 Public Randolph 2.3 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public Denville 2.2 in 0500 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Salem County... Pennsville 1.0 in 0815 PM 01/16 Fire Dept/Rescue ...Somerset County... 3 N Bridgewater 2.4 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Warren 2.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Public 2 N Bridgewater 2.2 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Bridgewater 2.0 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Bernardsville 0.5 in 0750 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Middlebush 0.5 in 0935 PM 01/16 Public ...Sussex County... Wantage Twp 7.0 in 0700 AM 01/17 Public High Point 6.0 in 1035 AM 01/17 Public 4 WSW Wantage Twp 5.7 in 0615 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter 3 W Vernon Valley 5.5 in 0120 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Hardyston Twp 1.5 in 0845 PM 01/16 Public ...Warren County... Hackettstown 3.8 in 1125 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Oxford 3.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Blairstown 2.5 in 1045 PM 01/16 Public Allamuchy-Panther Valley 2.0 in 0930 PM 01/16 Public ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Huffs Church 3.7 in 1036 AM 01/17 Public Huffs Church 3.5 in 0945 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Mertztown 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Bern Twp 3.5 in 1010 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Spring Twp 3.4 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public Shillington 3.3 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Wernersville 3.3 in 1015 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Wyomissing 3.0 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public 1 WNW Sinking Spring 3.0 in 0945 PM 01/16 Public Douglassville 2.5 in 0930 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Morgantown 1.9 in 0810 PM 01/16 Public Bechtelsville 1.9 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public ...Bucks County... 2 NE Springtown 4.0 in 1015 PM 01/16 CO-OP Observer Chalfont 2.7 in 0915 PM 01/16 Public Doylestown 2.5 in 0920 PM 01/16 Public Buckingham Twp 2.3 in 0945 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Furlong 2.2 in 0925 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Hilltown Twp 2.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Trumbauersville 2.0 in 0940 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 NW New Britain 1.9 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Warminster 1.5 in 0830 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Jamison 1.5 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public ...Carbon County... Lehighton 5.2 in 0105 AM 01/17 Public Lower Towamensing Twp 3.5 in 1115 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Chester County... Elverson 2.9 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Malvern 2.6 in 0829 PM 01/16 Public East Coventry Twp 2.6 in 0850 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter West Caln Twp 2.6 in 0950 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Spring City 2.5 in 0850 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Phoenixville 2.3 in 0855 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter East Nantmeal Twp 2.3 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 NW Wayne 2.0 in 0830 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 2 W Phoenixville 2.0 in 0840 PM 01/16 Public Glenmoore 2.0 in 1057 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Glenmoore 2.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Warwick 2.0 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Downington 1.9 in 0759 PM 01/16 Public 1 W Avondale 1.8 in 0750 PM 01/16 Public Paoli 1.8 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Marhsallton 1.8 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Nottingham 1.8 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Chester Springs 1.7 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Landenberg 1.5 in 0630 PM 01/16 Public Devault 1.5 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Atglen 1.5 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet West Chester 1.4 in 1200 AM 01/17 Mesonet Honey Brook 1.3 in 0715 PM 01/16 Public ...Delaware County... Chadds Ford Twp 2.2 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Folsom 2.0 in 0725 PM 01/16 Public Broomall 2.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Public Aston Twp. 1.8 in 0730 PM 01/16 Public Thornton 1.8 in 0800 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Morton 1.2 in 0730 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Boothwyn 1.0 in 0640 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Lehigh County... Germansville 4.3 in 1115 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Coopersburg 4.0 in 1010 PM 01/16 Public 1 SE North Whitehall Twp 4.0 in 0733 AM 01/17 Broadcast Media Whitehall Twp 3.8 in 1038 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Breinigsville 3.7 in 0737 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Center Valley 3.5 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Washington Twp 3.5 in 0700 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Lehigh Valley International 3.5 in 0100 PM 01/17 ASOS 1 W Northampton 3.3 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Emmaus 3.2 in 1026 PM 01/16 Public Coplay 3.2 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Salisbury Twp 3.1 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Upper Macungie Twp. 3.1 in 1100 PM 01/16 Public 1 SE North Whitehall Twp 2.9 in 0945 PM 01/16 Cocorahs Zionsville 2.9 in 1135 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Monroe County... Coolbaugh Twp 9.5 in 0745 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Pocono Pines 7.7 in 0723 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Mount Pocono 7.7 in 0908 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Jonas 6.4 in 0330 AM 01/17 Public 2 NNE Arlington Heights 4.2 in 1200 AM 01/17 CO-OP Observer Saylorsburg 3.5 in 1125 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter East Stroudsburg 2.5 in 1030 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Montgomery County... Norristown 3.1 in 0825 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter East Norriton 2.5 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public 1 NNW Franconia Twp 2.0 in 0900 PM 01/16 Public 2 S Horsham Twp 1.8 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public Lansdale 1.8 in 0835 PM 01/16 Public Eagleville 1.6 in 0815 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 1 NNE Willow Grove 1.6 in 0830 PM 01/16 Public ...Northampton County... Danielsville 4.3 in 1237 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Forks Twp 4.2 in 1111 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter Danielsville 3.8 in 1100 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter 1 NE Palmer Heights 3.7 in 1115 PM 01/16 Public Bushkill Twp 2.7 in 1045 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Lower Mount Bethel Twp 2.4 in 1000 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Pen Argyl 2.0 in 0230 AM 01/17 Trained Spotter ...Philadelphia County... Fox Chase 1.5 in 0810 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter Roxborough 1.0 in 0800 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media Philadelphia International A 0.7 in 0700 PM 01/16 ASOS Philadelphia 0.5 in 0715 PM 01/16 Broadcast Media &&
NOUS41 KPHI 171902 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-180702- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 202 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 ...FREEZING RAIN REPORTS... Location Amount Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...New Castle County... New Castle County Airport 0.11 in 1000 PM 01/16 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Burlington County... South Jersey Regional Airpor 0.03 in 0954 PM 01/16 ASOS ...Camden County... Bellmawr 0.01 in 0900 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Cumberland County... Millville Municipal Airport 0.03 in 0700 PM 01/16 ASOS ...Sussex County... 1 SW Sussex 0.09 in 0700 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Reading Regional Airport 0.04 in 1254 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Bucks County... Doylestown Airport 0.02 in 0954 PM 01/16 ASOS ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley International 0.21 in 0700 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Montgomery County... West Pottsgrove Twp 0.03 in 0954 PM 01/16 ASOS Willow Grove 0.01 in 0850 PM 01/16 Trained Spotter ...Philadelphia County... Philadelphia International A 0.05 in 1000 PM 01/16 ASOS Northeast Philadelphia Airpo 0.04 in 0100 AM 01/17 ASOS &&
NOUS41 KPHI 171709 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054-055-060>062-070- 071-101>106-180509- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1209 PM EST Mon Jan 17 2022 ...HIGHEST WIND REPORTS SO FAR... Location Speed Time/Date Provider ...Delaware... ...Kent County... Dover Cheswold 48 MPH 1135 PM 01/16 AWOS Delaware Airpark 48 MPH 1135 PM 01/16 MESOWEST Dover 43 MPH 1057 PM 01/16 AWOS Choptank River Felton 36 MPH 1010 PM 01/16 DEOS2 ...New Castle County... Sassafras River Townsend 47 MPH 1240 AM 01/17 DEOS2 Wilmington 38 MPH 0846 PM 01/16 ASOS ...Sussex County... Georgetown 51 MPH 1130 PM 01/16 ASOS Dewey Beach 47 MPH 1159 PM 01/16 WXFLOW Lewes 46 MPH 1120 PM 01/16 WXFLOW Indian River Bay Dewey Beach 44 MPH 1110 PM 01/16 DEOS2 Lewes NOS 43 MPH 1136 PM 01/16 NOS-NWLON Greenwood 42 MPH 1040 PM 01/16 CWOP Dagsboro, DE 41 MPH 1020 PM 01/16 DEOS2 Lewes 41 MPH 1205 AM 01/17 CWOP Broad Creek Laurel 39 MPH 1100 PM 01/16 DEOS2 Selbyville 39 MPH 1135 PM 01/16 CWOP Bethany Beach, DE-Boardwalk 39 MPH 1140 PM 01/16 DEOS2 Nanticoke River Bridgeville 38 MPH 1055 PM 01/16 DEOS2 Delmar, DE-Gumboro 38 MPH 1130 PM 01/16 DEOS2 ...Maryland... ...Queen Annes County... Grasonville 36 MPH 0616 AM 01/17 CWOP ...Talbot County... Cambridge 37 MPH 1103 PM 01/16 CWOP ...New Jersey... ...Atlantic County... Atlantic City 52 MPH 1055 PM 01/16 ASOS Pleasantville Point 50 MPH 0107 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Atlantic City 49 MPH 1225 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Atlantic City International 49 MPH 0100 AM 01/17 Mesonet Forsythe 42 MPH 0125 AM 01/17 RAWS ...Burlington County... McGuire AFB 47 MPH 0133 AM 01/17 AWOS Silas Little 45 MPH 0105 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Tabernacle 38 MPH 0126 AM 01/17 CWOP Lumberton 37 MPH 0105 AM 01/17 CWOP Moorestown 35 MPH 1240 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Mount Holly 35 MPH 0101 AM 01/17 ASOS Springfield Twp. 35 MPH 0205 AM 01/17 NJWXNET ...Camden County... Pennsauken 41 MPH 1250 AM 01/17 NJWXNET ...Cape May County... Ocean City 59 MPH 1252 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Wildwood 56 MPH 1228 AM 01/17 AWOS Cape May 51 MPH 1144 PM 01/16 WXFLOW Woodbine 41 MPH 1245 AM 01/17 NJWXNET West Cape May 38 MPH 1225 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Ocean City 38 MPH 1245 AM 01/17 CWOP Dennis Twp. 37 MPH 1210 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Woodbine Muni 36 MPH 1031 PM 01/16 AWOS Cape May Point 36 MPH 1135 PM 01/16 CWOP Cape May 35 MPH 1224 AM 01/17 AWOS Stone Harbor 35 MPH 0735 AM 01/17 DAVIS ...Cumberland County... Millville Municipal Airport 48 MPH 1250 AM 01/17 Mesonet Fortesque 47 MPH 1240 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Millville 46 MPH 1130 PM 01/16 ASOS Upper Deerfield 37 MPH 1245 AM 01/17 NJWXNET ...Gloucester County... Logan Twp. 41 MPH 0235 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Mickleton 35 MPH 1245 AM 01/17 CWOP ...Hunterdon County... Ringoes 41 MPH 0236 AM 01/17 CWOP Kingwood 40 MPH 0400 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Pittstown 37 MPH 1130 PM 01/16 NJWXNET ...Mercer County... Trenton 40 MPH 0206 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Middlesex County... Hopelawn 66 MPH 0230 AM 01/17 Public New Brunswick 44 MPH 0225 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Perth Amboy 40 MPH 0248 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Carteret 38 MPH 1216 AM 01/17 CWOP Edison 36 MPH 0145 AM 01/17 CWOP South Amboy 35 MPH 0145 AM 01/17 DAVIS ...Monmouth County... Sea Girt 50 MPH 0150 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Belmar Farmdale 46 MPH 0142 AM 01/17 AWOS Monmouth 46 MPH 0219 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Wall Twp. 42 MPH 1250 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Cream Ridge 42 MPH 0155 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Monmouth Beach 42 MPH 0216 AM 01/17 CWOP Millstone Township 41 MPH 0135 AM 01/17 CWOP Monmouth Beach 40 MPH 0216 AM 01/17 CWOP Atlantic Highlands 39 MPH 0140 AM 01/17 DAVIS Oceanport 39 MPH 0230 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Holmdel 38 MPH 0140 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Keyport 37 MPH 0201 AM 01/17 CWOP Highlands 36 MPH 0200 AM 01/17 DAVIS Neptune City 35 MPH 0105 AM 01/17 AWS ...Morris County... Randolph 37 MPH 0345 AM 01/17 CWOP ...Ocean County... Seaside Heights 61 MPH 1221 AM 01/17 WXFLOW 2 SW Beach Haven 59 MPH 0121 AM 01/17 Mesonet Beach Haven 59 MPH 0126 AM 01/17 CWOP Mantoloking 57 MPH 1252 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Tuckerton 54 MPH 1231 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Trixies 51 MPH 0104 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Surf City 50 MPH 1100 PM 01/16 CWOP Harvey Cedars 50 MPH 1235 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Rutgers 49 MPH 1240 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Seaside Heights 49 MPH 0150 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Lakehurst NAS 48 MPH 0141 AM 01/17 AWOS South Seaside Park 46 MPH 1239 AM 01/17 CWOP Brick 46 MPH 0215 AM 01/17 CWOP Berkeley Twp. 44 MPH 0120 AM 01/17 NJWXNET North Beach Haven 43 MPH 1229 AM 01/17 CWOP Point Pleasant 38 MPH 0140 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Cedar Bridge USFS 37 MPH 0115 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Ship Bottom 36 MPH 1236 AM 01/17 CWOP Mantoloking 36 MPH 1255 AM 01/17 CWOP Jackson 36 MPH 0130 AM 01/17 CWOP Beach Haven West 35 MPH 1105 PM 01/16 DAVIS Seaside Park 35 MPH 1250 AM 01/17 DAVIS Point Pleasant Beach 35 MPH 0140 AM 01/17 DAVIS ...Somerset County... Hillsborough Twp 46 MPH 1250 AM 01/17 Mesonet ...Sussex County... High Point Monument 49 MPH 0300 AM 01/17 NJWXNET High Point 42 MPH 0359 AM 01/17 Mesonet Sussex 37 MPH 0217 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Warren County... Hackettstown 40 MPH 0445 AM 01/17 NJWXNET Hackettstown 37 MPH 0410 AM 01/17 DAVIS ...Pennsylvania... ...Berks County... Fleetwood 52 MPH 0145 AM 01/17 CWOP Reading 47 MPH 1220 AM 01/17 CWOP Reading 38 MPH 0325 AM 01/17 ASOS I-78 W B @ Mm 27 Berks Co. 37 MPH 0120 AM 01/17 MESOWEST I-78 W/B @ MM 27 Berks Co. 37 MPH 0120 AM 01/17 PADOT Boyertown 36 MPH 1115 PM 01/16 CWOP ...Bucks County... Nockamixon 38 MPH 0251 AM 01/17 WXFLOW Perkasie 37 MPH 0255 AM 01/17 AWOS Burlington NOS 36 MPH 0100 AM 01/17 NOS-PORTS ...Carbon County... Weatherly 36 MPH 0231 AM 01/17 CWOP ...Chester County... White Clay Creek West Grove- 41 MPH 1230 AM 01/17 DEOS2 SR30 @ Business 30 38 MPH 0155 AM 01/17 PADOT Sr30 @ Business 30 38 MPH 0155 AM 01/17 MESOWEST Lincoln University 36 MPH 1245 AM 01/17 CWOP Glenmoore 36 MPH 1247 AM 01/17 CWOP Octoraro Creek Atglen 36 MPH 0140 AM 01/17 DEOS2 ...Delaware County... Newtown Square E 38 MPH 0151 AM 01/17 CWOP ...Lehigh County... Lehigh Valley Intl Airport 38 MPH 0341 AM 01/17 ASOS New Tripoli 36 MPH 0245 AM 01/17 CWOP Queen City 35 MPH 0255 AM 01/17 AWOS ...Monroe County... Mt. Pocono 36 MPH 0151 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Montgomery County... Eagleville 46 MPH 1240 AM 01/17 CWOP Eagleville 46 MPH 0100 AM 01/17 Mesonet Pottstown 41 MPH 0213 AM 01/17 ASOS ...Northampton County... Freemansburg 55 MPH 0135 AM 01/17 MESOWEST ...Philadelphia County... I-95 @ Girard Avenue 46 MPH 0135 AM 01/17 PADOT I-95 @ Girard Avenue 46 MPH 0135 AM 01/17 MESOWEST Philadelphia International A 38 MPH 0121 AM 01/17 ASOS Philadelphia Northeast 35 MPH 0102 AM 01/17 ASOS ...New Jersey... ...Maritime Stations... Belmar 63 MPH 0200 AM 01/17 Public &&
As strong low pressure moved west of our region, it began to occlude. Towards the middle of the night of January 16, a developing occluded front moved through our region. Strong forcing was present along this front, along with extremely strong wind fields. A small amount of mainly non-surface based instability was also present along and just ahead of this front. This combination allowed for some convective elements to develop and to move over eastern portions of the region. This convection caused an enhancement of downward momentum transport, allowing a portion of the extremely strong winds aloft to be transported to the surface. This mainly occurred near and along the New Jersey coast and over the adjacent coastal waters. Numerous wind gusts of 50 to 65 mph were observed, which produced some localized damage. Some radar analysis is presented below.
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| Figure 1: KDIX radar reflectivity and base velocity (v) in 30 minute intervals from 0500z 17 Jan 2022 to 0900z 17 Jan 2022. Convection can be seen moving through the region. Very high velocity values, of 70 kt or greater, are present at less than 1000 feet elevation along and ahead of the convective elements. | Figure 2: KDIX radar reflectivity factor (top left), base velocity (v, top right), storm relative motion (SRM, bottom left) and correlation coefficient (CC, bottom right) valid for the 0654 UTC scan time 17 Jan 2022. An area of convection is seen. This storm produced several wind gusts of 55 to 65 mph. The SRM data also shows that it possessed some broad rotation. Finally, the reduced and speckled values of CC coinciding with the high reflectivity (over 60 dBz) are likely indicative of small hail mixed in with rain. At least one report of hail was received. |
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| Figure 3: The most notable wind damage of the event occurred near the border of Tuckerton and Little Egg Harbor Twp, NJ. Here, in an aerial photo, dozens of sizable trees are seen uprooted near the Freedom Fields County Park in Tuckerton. Image credit: Joe Martucci and Press of Atlantic City. | Figure 4: Same as Figure 2 valid for the 0624 UTC scan time 17 Jan 2022. This is believed to be the time that the damage in Figure 3 occurred. The reduced CC values (with a minimum around 0.89) are possibly indicative of a tornado debris signature (TDS). However, the aerial photography in Figure 3 is strongly indicative of straight line wind damage. There are a couple of possibilities here. One of that it is simply a radar artifact, though its precise colocation with the Tuckerton damage and apparent multi-scan continuity argues against this. Another possibility is that some of the debris produced as the trees in Figure 3 were toppled (such as by a descending rear inflow jet) was lofted into the strong low level jet, giving the appearance of a TDS. It is also possible that a brief tornado actually occurred. However, in deference to the clear unidirectional nature of the tree damage, and a lack of any photo or video evidence otherwise, there is currently insufficient evidence to confirm a tornado by normal storm survey practices. |
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| Figure 5: National Preliminary Storm Reports 12z 16 Jan 2022 to 12z 17 Jan 2022 | Figure 6: Zoomed Preliminary Reports for the same period. | Figure 7: Prelim Reports vs. 1630z SPC Convective Outlook |
Coastal flooding was another concern during the January 16-17 storm. A full moon occurred on January 17. Astronomical tides associated with this full moon were not particularly high, but still contributed to an increased risk of coastal flooding during the event. As mentioned in the Overview, a strong easterly low level jet developed ahead of this storm, with a very strong pressure gradient in place. This was also a large storm with a broad wind field. These factors contributed to an unusually large storm surge being produced as this storm impacted our region. A water level rise of 3.5 to 4.5 feet above astronomical values occurred as the storm moved through. The magnitude of this surge was well-forecast by model guidance, such as the ETSS and ESTOFS surge models. The main forecast challenge was timing this surge relative to the times of high and low tides. Had a surge of this magnitude coincided with the time of high tide on the morning of the 17th, major and in some cases near record-breaking coastal flooding would have occurred. This created an unusually challenging and high stakes water level forecast. Fortunately, model guidance correctly identified that the surge would hit most areas closer to low tide on the night of the 16th, while it would occur slightly later and a little closer to the morning high tide in northern New Jersey. This contributed to a Coastal Flood Warning being issued for coastal northern New Jersey, while Coastal Flood Advisories were issued in most other coastal locations. Ultimately, widespread minor coastal flooding occurred, with locally moderate flooding in northern New Jersey. This flooding could have been much worse with only a small shift in surge timing, and it is safe to say the region was largely spared during this event. Some hydrographs are presented below, including a couple which annotate some notable aspects of the event.
The first two images here are annotated. These annotated hydrographs show water levels at the Atlantic City (Figure 1) and Sandy Hook (Figure 2) tidal gauges during the event. In the graph, the blue line “Predictions” simply marks the expected astronomical tide, all other factors aside. The “Predictions” label is somewhat misleading; it is not a forecast made by NWS, it is simply the expected astronomical tide. The red line (labeled as “Preliminary”) shows the actual water levels which occurred. The purple line represents the difference between the green and blue lines. It can be thought of as the storm surge. Positive values represent times when the actual water levels were higher than the astronomical tide. In this case all the values are positive since water levels were elevated. (Note: there is no data for the green line marked “Verified” since the Preliminary values are yet to be formally confirmed and users may disregard this.) These images help to show why coastal flooding in this event was not nearly as severe as it could have been, due to an approximately 4 foot storm surge hitting close to the time of low tide. The remainder of the images are standard hydrographs.
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| Figure 1: Annotated hydrograph of water levels at the Atlantic City, NJ tidal gauge during the January 16-17 event. | Figure 2: Same as Fig. 1, for Sandy Hook, NJ. |
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| Figure 3: Hydrograph of water levels for Arthur Kill at Perth Amboy (PABN4) during the January 16-17 event. A highly pronounced double peak in water levels is noted, related to the offset between the arrival of peak surge values and the time of high tide. | Figure 4: Same as Fig. 3, for the New Jersey Atlantic coast at Sandy Hook (SDHN4). | Figure 5: Same as Fig. 3, for Barnegat Bay at Barnegat Light (BGLN4). |
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| Figure 6: Same as Fig. 3, for Barnegat Bay at Mantoloking (MTLN4). Back bay flooding tended to be worse than oceanfront flooding during this event, with moderate flooding observed at Mantoloking. | Figure 7: Same as Fig. 3, for the New Jersey Atlantic coast at Atlantic City (ACYN4). Again, a pronounced double peak is seen, but here, the surge was so far offset from the high tide that not even minor flooding occurred. | Figure 8: Same as Fig. 3, for Great Egg Harbor Bay at Ocean City (ONCN4). |
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| Figure 9: Same as Fig. 3, for the tidal Delaware River at Burlington, NJ (BDRN4). Some minor flooding occurred on the tidal Delaware. | Figure 10: Same as Fig. 3, for Chesapeake Bay at Tolchester Beach (TCBM2). Chesapeake Bay also experienced flooding in this event, which locally approached moderate levels. |
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