Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing large hail and damaging wind gusts will be possible this evening across west-central Texas. Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions will persist across the southern Rockies and portions of the southern Plains through this weekend. Read More >
Overview
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Scattered thunderstorms developed along and south of a warm front in northern Pennsylvania and southern New York during the afternoon, including a few supercells. Some of the storms produced tornadoes and damaging straight-line winds before moving into portions of the Poconos and far northwest New Jersey during the late afternoon and early evening hours. One of these supercells produced two tornadoes (one each in Carbon and Monroe Counties) before moving into northern New Jersey. Meanwhile, storms to the west of this supercell congealed into a line and began to train over portions of eastern Pennsylvania and northern New Jersey during the mid-evening hours. Several reports of flooding were received from Monroe, Sussex, Warren, and Morris Counties during this phase of the event. As the storms matured into a mesoscale convective system (MCS), a strong cold pool developed and allowed the line of storms to propagate into southeast Pennsylvania and central New Jersey, where a couple of wind-damage reports occurred, before moving offshore after midnight.
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 Radar Reflectivity Animation for the Event |
Synoptic Overview at 12z 2 Oct 2018 (courtesy of SPC)
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| Figure 1: 250-mb analysis | Figure 2: 300-mb analysis | Figure 3: 500-mb analysis |
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| Figure 4: 700-mb analysis | Figure 5: 850-mb analysis | Figure 6: 925-mb analysis |
Synoptic Overview at 00z 3 Oct 2018 (courtesy of SPC)
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| Figure 7: 250-mb analysis | Figure 8: 300-mb analysis | Figure 9: 500-mb analysis |
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| Figure 10: 700-mb analysis | Figure 11: 850-mb analysis | Figure 12: 925-mb analysis |
Surface Maps (courtesy of WPC)
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| Figure 13: 15z surface map | Figure 14: 18z surface map | Figure 15: 21z surface map |
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| Figure 16: 00z surface map | Figure 17: 03z surface map | Figure 18: 06z surface map |
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| Figure 19: 12z Upton, NY sounding | Figure 20: 12z Pittsburgh, PA sounding | Figure 21: 12z Sterling, VA sounding |
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| Figure 22: 00z Upton, NY sounding | Figure 23: 00z Pittsburgh, PA sounding | Figure 24: 00z Sterling, VA sounding |
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| Figure 1: National Preliminary Reports 12z 2 Oct 2018 to 12z 3 Oct 2018 | Figure 2: Zoomed Preliminary Reports | Figure 3: Prelim Reports vs. 1630z SPC Convective Outlook |
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| Figure 1: Carbon County Tornado Track | Figure 2: Radar Reflectivity Factor Valid 6:37 pm EDT 2 Oct 2018 | Figure 3: Base Velocity Valid 6:37 pm EDT 2 Oct 2018 |
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| Figure 1: Monroe County Tornado Track | Figure 2: Radar Reflectivity Factor Valid 7:01 pm EDT 2 Oct 2018 | Figure 3: Base Velocity Valid 7:01 pm EDT 2 Oct 2018 |
Carbon County Tornado (GR2Analyst)
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| Figure 1: Base radar reflectivity factor (top left), storm-relative velocity (top right), correlation coefficient (CC; bottom left), and differential radar reflectivity (ZDR; bottom right) valid at 2230 UTC 2 Oct 2018. | Figure 2: Same as Fig. 1, valid at 2235 UTC 2 Oct 2018. | Figure 3: Same as Fig. 1, valid at 2240 UTC 2 Oct 2018. Note the considerably lower values of CC (circled in white). The position of this signature is collocated with the center of the observed rotation (see the red marker in each of the panels). This is a strong indication of a tornadic debris signature (TDS). Making this particularly impressive is that the radar is identifying this signature well off the ground (around 9000 feet), since the radar is so far from the storm (approximately 86 nautical miles). |
Monroe County Tornado (GR2Analyst)
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| Figure 4: Same as Fig. 1, valid at 2301 UTC 2 Oct 2018. | Figure 5: Same as Fig. 1, valid at 2306 UTC 2 Oct 2018. | Figure 6: Same as Fig. 1, valid at 2312 UTC 2 Oct 2018. Note the much higher values of ZDR (circled in white), indicative of the so-called ZDR arc -- a common signature with supercell storms. ZDR arcs depict size sorting of precipitation as a result of vertical wind shear -- i.e., a strong indication of (increasing) low- and midlevel rotation. |
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 0103 Tornado Warning 0004 Tornado Warning 0005 Severe Thunderstorm Warning 0104 Severe Thunderstorm Warning 0105 Tornado Warning 0006 Areal Flood Advisory 0316 Severe Thunderstorm Warning 0106 Areal Flood Advisory 0317 Severe Thunderstorm Warning 0107 Special Marine Warning 0112 Special Marine Warning 0113
NWUS51 KPHI 040006
LSRPHI
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT WED OCT 03 2018
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0630 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E KIDDER TWP 41.06N 75.67W
10/02/2018 CARBON PA 911 CALL CENTER
A COUPLE OF TREES REPORTED DOWN IN KIDDER TOWNSHIP.
TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0637 PM TORNADO 1 S LAKE HARMONY 41.04N 75.59W
10/02/2018 CARBON PA NWS STORM SURVEY
TORNADO CAUSED TREE DAMAGE ALONG AN UNBROKEN PATH FROM
THE BIG BOULDER SKI AREA ALONG A COMMUNICATIONS TOWER
ACCESS ROAD NEAR BIG BOULDER LAKE. NUMEROUS TREES WERE
UPROOTED AND SNAPPED. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS
100 TO 110 MPH. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.
0701 PM TORNADO 2 NNW MCMICHAEL 41.02N 75.41W
10/02/2018 MONROE PA NWS STORM SURVEY
THE PATH OF THIS TORNADO STARTED WITH TREE DAMAGE ALONG
JACKSON ROAD. MANY TREES WERE UPROOTED AND SOME WERE
SNAPPED. ADDITIONAL TREE DAMAGE WAS OBSERVED ALONG
SPORTSMANS TRAIL AND SKYHAWK TRAIL. THE DAMAGE PATH
CONTINUED THROUGH A CORN FIELD NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
MOUNTAIN ROAD AND JACKSON ROAD. A LARGE LIMB OF
APPROXIMATELY 18 INCHES IN DIAMETER WAS SNAPPED OFF A
TREE AND CAUSED ROOF DAMAGE AND DOWNED POWER LINES TO A
RESIDENCE. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED WAS 90 TO 100
MPH. TIME ESTIMATED
0833 PM TSTM WND DMG BYRAM TWP 40.95N 74.73W
10/02/2018 SUSSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR
LOCALIZED POWER OUTAGES AND TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.
0850 PM TSTM WND DMG BRANCHVILLE 41.15N 74.75W
10/02/2018 SUSSEX NJ EMERGENCY MNGR
LOCALIZED TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES. TIME ESTIMATED
FROM RADAR.
0947 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 ESE MORRISTOWN 40.78N 74.46W
10/02/2018 MORRIS NJ 911 CALL CENTER
TREE DOWN ON BRADWAHL DRIVE.
1000 PM HAIL 1 N FRENCHTOWN 40.53N 75.06W
10/02/2018 M0.25 INCH HUNTERDON NJ COCORAHS
NO DAMAGE REPORTED.
1015 PM HAIL HATFIELD 40.28N 75.30W
10/02/2018 E0.80 INCH MONTGOMERY PA SOCIAL MEDIA
2 CM HAIL REPORTED IN HATFIELD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM
RADAR.
1055 PM TSTM WND DMG EWING 40.27N 74.80W
10/02/2018 MERCER NJ TRAINED SPOTTER
TREE UPROOTED ONTO A HOUSE ON KING AVE. MINOR
STRUCTURAL DAMAGE. DOWNED POWER LINES IN AREA.
&&
EVENT NUMBER PHI1801637 PHI1801645 PHI1801646 PHI1801643 PHI1801644
PHI1801641 PHI1801640 PHI1801639 PHI1801638
$$
SFJ
NOUS41 KPHI 092349 PNSPHI DEZ001>004-MDZ008-012-015-019-020-NJZ001-007>010-012>027-PAZ054- 055-060>062-070-071-101>106-101200- Public Information Statement National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 749 PM EDT Tue Oct 9 2018 ...NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOR 10/02/18 TORNADO EVENT... .Carbon County Tornado... Start Location...Lake Harmony in Carbon County Pennsylvania End Location...Lake Harmony in Carbon County Pennsylvania Date...October 2 2018 Estimated Time...6:36 EDT Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...100-110 mph Maximum Path Width...40 yards Path Length...2.67 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...41.0533/-75.6358 Ending Lat/Lon...41.042/-75.5876 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... A funnel cloud was witnessed by a local citizen. Several trees were uprooted and snapped along the path of the tornado, though the tornado may have lifted a few times. Tree damage and damage to a ski lift occurred at the Big Boulder Ski area. Tree damage continued along an unbroken path from the ski area along a communications tower access road near Big Boulder Lake. .Monroe County Tornado... Start Location...Jackson Township in Monroe County Pennsylvania End Location...Jackson Township in Monroe County Pennsylvania Date...October 2 2018 Estimated Time...7:01 PM Maximum EF-Scale Rating...EF1 Estimated Maximum Wind Speed...90-100 mph Maximum Path Width...50 yards Path Length...1.42 miles Beginning Lat/Lon...41.0158/-75.4114 Ending Lat/Lon...41.0108/-75.3855 * Fatalities...0 * Injuries...0 ...Summary... The path of this tornado started with tree damage along Jackson road. Many trees were uprooted and some were snapped. The damage path veered slightly toward the southeast where additional tree damage was observed along Sportsmans Trail and Skyhawk Trail. The damage path continued through a corn field near the intersection of Mountain Road and Jackson Road. A large limb of approximately 18 inches in diameter was snapped off a tree and caused roof damage and downed power lines to a residence. EF Scale: The Enhanced Fujita Scale classifies tornadoes into the following categories: EF0...Weak......65 to 85 mph EF1...Weak......86 to 110 mph EF2...Strong....111 to 135 mph EF3...Strong....136 to 165 mph EF4...Violent...166 to 200 mph EF5...Violent...>200 mph * The information in this statement is preliminary and subject to change pending final review of the events and publication in NWS Storm Data. $$
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