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Overview

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1123 AM CDT Sat Aug 12 2023

   Valid 121630Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHEAST
   OHIO INTO THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA AND SOUTHERN NEW YORK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The most concentrated area of severe-thunderstorm threats this
   afternoon extends from northeast Ohio across parts of Pennsylvania
   and into central New York, with damaging to severe wind expected,
   along with large hail and a tornado or two possible.

   ...Southern Great Lakes into the Northeast...
   Water-vapor imagery this morning shows a mid-level shortwave trough
   moving across the northern Great Lakes with a belt of stronger flow
   moving through the southern Great Lakes.  Scattered thunderstorms
   will likely continue to develop through midday into the afternoon
   with the stronger storms becoming capable of a hail/wind threat. 
   Forecast soundings show some low-level hodograph curvature,
   especially with northeast extent from northeast OH into PA and NY. 
   Supercells will likely evolve from the stronger updrafts and pose a
   large to very large hail threat.  It is with the supercells from the
   northern half of PA/northeast OH into southern NY where a tornado
   risk will seemingly focus this afternoon.  As a surface cold front
   pushes east, additional storms are possible along the front and some
   of these will probably have an attendant hail/wind risk before
   weakening this evening.
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August 12th 2023 Tornado Watch
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