...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-February through mid-May. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for southwest
Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is above average or above normal for much of the Ohio
and Mississippi basins and their tributaries across southern
Illinois, southwest Indiana and west Kentucky. An average or normal
chance exists for tributaries in southeast Missouri. Flooding in this
region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground moisture, river
flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are rarely a factor in
flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
Snow...Frost and Soil Conditions...Precipitation since last fall has
been above normal. 125% to 150% of normal rain has fallen over the
last year. Periodic rounds of heavy have fallen since December 1
producing rivers that are running above normal across the region.
Minor to moderate flooding is currently occurring along the Ohio
River and several of its tributaries.
Snow is confined to only the extreme northern parts of the
Mississippi and Ohio River Basins where liquid water equivalents are
running from 3 to 6 inches. Frost depths are near normal for this
time of year with no frost depth reported in the service area. Soil
moisture is much above normal and conditions are nearly saturated
across the region.
Given all these factors, flood risk is above normal across the
region. Additional flooding through the spring will be dependent on
how the snow melts in the upper parts of the Mississippi and Ohio
basins as well as the track of spring storm systems. Elevated river
levels can be expected into at least the first part of spring.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (ft) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 76 47 63 32 <5 8
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 91 76 52 40 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 80 68 45 38 18 18
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 93 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : >95 49 12 7 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : >95 76 21 8 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : >95 85 <5 5 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : >95 43 27 9 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : >95 88 81 41 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : >95 80 16 8 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 76 65 58 47 22 17
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 46 43 39 36 29 25
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : >95 84 32 25 <5 <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 37 20 <5 <5 <5 <5
:Current River
Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 25 18 9 <5 <5 <5
Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : 10 13 <5 <5 <5 <5
:St. Francis River
Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 18 21 15 20 9 9
Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 58 55 15 11 <5 <5
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 72 60 18 14 6 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : >95 68 45 34 16 13
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 20.0 21.4 23.2 29.2 30.5 31.4 31.5
Paradise 379.7 380.1 382.4 386.3 389.5 391.0 393.2
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 23.8 24.5 28.4 31.4 34.5 35.6 36.5
:Ohio River
Evansville 41.9 42.1 42.2 42.9 44.1 45.1 45.5
Golconda 40.9 41.4 42.1 44.0 47.0 49.3 50.6
Mount Vernon 41.0 41.2 41.4 42.3 44.5 46.2 47.0
Newburgh Dam 44.2 44.3 44.4 44.9 46.3 47.3 47.9
Owensboro 40.9 41.2 41.4 42.1 44.2 45.4 46.1
Shawneetown 41.9 42.6 43.3 45.6 47.8 49.9 51.8
J.T. Myers Dam 43.1 43.6 44.0 45.7 47.8 49.7 50.9
:Patoka River
Princeton 15.7 16.8 18.1 20.8 22.7 24.1 24.7
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 8.4 9.9 11.4 13.9 21.1 23.0 24.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony 16.0 16.3 17.6 18.9 20.5 21.3 21.9
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.4 17.9 19.1
:Current River
Doniphan 2.5 4.7 6.8 9.7 13.0 17.3 20.7
Van Buren 5.6 5.8 6.5 7.4 10.5 14.3 18.5
:St. Francis River
Fisk 13.4 13.4 13.4 14.6 17.5 25.7 27.0
Patterson 6.5 10.5 12.6 17.2 21.0 26.2 28.2
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 19.8 19.8 19.9 22.4 23.9 30.6 34.6
Murphysboro 22.0 22.1 24.1 27.4 34.5 39.7 42.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2020 - 05/18/2020
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 13.1 12.5 12.0 11.4 11.0 10.3 10.2
Paradise 369.8 368.5 367.1 366.1 365.3 364.3 364.1
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 10.1 6.3 5.2 4.2 3.8 3.6 3.4
:Ohio River
Evansville 19.6 18.6 16.4 15.7 15.0 14.6 14.6
Golconda 30.3 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6
Mount Vernon 24.4 24.2 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.5
Newburgh Dam 20.9 19.5 17.1 16.3 15.5 14.9 14.7
Owensboro 19.7 19.4 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 20.9 19.9 18.1 17.3 16.6 16.1 15.8
J.T. Myers Dam 22.3 21.1 18.8 17.5 16.1 15.5 14.8
:Patoka River
Princeton 8.5 8.2 7.2 5.2 3.7 3.1 2.7
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
:Wabash River
New Harmony 7.2 6.9 5.7 4.3 3.3 3.0 2.6
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 12.1 11.8 10.9 9.6 8.6 7.8 7.5
Murphysboro 15.1 14.6 12.1 10.5 8.2 6.8 5.9
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.
...Weather Outlooks...
Another storm system will work its way toward our region early next
week providing around another inch of rain.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 20 through 26 calls for above
normal temperatures and near normal precipitation. During this time,
normal average temperatures are around 40 degrees and rainfall during
this period is around three-quarters of an inch.
The Outlook for March calls for equal chances of above normal, normal
and below normal precipitation for southeast Missouri, southern
Illinois and southwest Indiana and an above normal chance of
precipitation for west Kentucky. Normal precipitation for March is
between and 4 and 4 1/2 inches. The outlook for March through May
calls for above normal precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
The next outlook will be issued on February 27 2020.
$$
Lamm
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