SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK #3 - ISSUED March 13, 2025
Spring Hydrologic Outlook
tEXT PRODUCT WITH PROBABILITIES
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1000 AM CDT THU MAR 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 3...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-March through mid-June. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is normal to slightly above normal across the Ohio
Valley and its tributaries. Flood potential is normal to below
normal for the outlook period for the Mississippi River Valley and
its smaller tributaries.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
Very heavy rain fell across the Ohio Valley in mid-February causing
moderate to major flooding along the Green and Ohio Rivers. There
has been little additional rainfall in the last couple of weeks.
Streamflow in these areas is running normal to below normal.
Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running below normal. The
Ohio River near the confluence with the Mississippi River is running
at 50% of normal while the Mississippi River above Cairo is running
around 86% of normal.
Soil moisture is above normal across most of the region. There is no
frost depth in our region. There is very little snow in the
Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys that would contribute significant
runoff for flooding.
...Weather Outlooks...
A strong storm system will lift out of the Plains bringing the
region a chance for showers and thunderstorms, some of which could
be severe this weekend. Most areas could see up to an inch of rain
with more organized storms producing up to 2 inches.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for March 20 through 26 calls for above
normal temperatures and precipitation. During this time, normal
average temperatures are around 50 degrees and rainfall during this
period is around 1 inch.
The Outlook for March calls for above normal precipitation. Normal
precipitation for March is around 4 1/2 to 5 inches. The outlook
for March through May calls for above normal precipitation.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 29 33 19 21 <5 <5
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : 74 64 27 21 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 71 64 43 38 24 20
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 19 26 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 43 46 <5 6 <5 <5
Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 36 39 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : 67 67 <5 <5 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : 74 76 <5 <5 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 34 32 <5 <5 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : 72 80 18 36 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : 69 71 <5 7 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 73 62 51 48 17 14
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 59 40 47 33 34 20
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 77 79 27 26 <5 <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 10 33 6 17 <5 10
:Current River
Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 7 24 <5 14 <5 9
Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : 66 81 38 63 19 40
Hickman 34.0 40.0 43.0 : 70 92 50 67 33 57
New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 50 63 9 26 <5 <5
Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 53 75 32 56 17 32
:Ohio River
Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : 71 88 48 63 17 37
Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : 62 84 37 61 15 40
Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : 28 64 10 51 <5 7
Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : 24 56 6 9 <5 7
:St. Francis River
Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 7 25 7 24 <5 21
Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 16 52 6 19 <5 9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 49 55 13 14 <5 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 49 69 35 47 16 16
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 16.0 16.3 17.0 19.6 23.7 29.3 30.8
Paradise 376.9 377.9 379.9 382.8 386.2 390.2 393.3
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 17.4 19.9 26.2 30.8 34.9 36.4 36.8
:Ohio River
Evansville 25.5 29.2 34.7 39.8 41.3 43.1 43.4
Golconda 31.8 33.6 35.6 39.4 41.7 46.9 47.8
Henderson 21.6 24.8 30.0 35.1 36.7 38.5 39.0
Mount Vernon 26.6 28.7 33.3 38.6 40.3 42.6 43.3
Newburgh Dam 27.9 32.2 37.9 42.5 44.2 45.1 45.5
Owensboro 25.8 29.3 34.0 38.3 41.0 42.4 42.9
Shawneetown 24.1 28.2 32.2 38.4 40.9 45.5 46.5
J.T. Myers Dam 26.3 31.3 35.6 41.3 43.7 47.6 48.6
:Patoka River
Princeton 11.9 13.1 17.8 20.1 22.0 24.0 24.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 10.2 10.7 12.4 16.4 21.9 24.6 25.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony 11.6 13.0 15.3 18.0 20.2 21.2 21.6
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 11.0 16.1 19.3
:Current River
Doniphan 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 5.8 11.3 14.1
Van Buren 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 17.4 17.4 17.3 15.6 14.5 12.3 3.8
Hickman 18.4 16.6 15.6 13.3 10.3 7.4 6.1
New Madrid 14.7 13.0 12.0 10.0 7.1 3.9 3.6
Thebes 16.8 16.8 16.8 14.9 13.7 12.1 4.1
:Ohio River
Cairo 25.0 23.4 22.5 19.8 16.3 13.2 12.2
Olmsted Lock and 21.1 21.1 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.8 19.0
Paducah 14.9 13.9 12.6 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.0
Smithland Dam 15.5 15.2 14.4 13.5 12.1 11.4 10.9
:St. Francis River
Fisk 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 10.2 14.6 25.2
Patterson 4.9 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 12.7 15.2 17.2 19.9 22.8 27.9 32.1
Murphysboro 15.1 17.5 19.1 21.8 30.1 42.3 42.8
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 03/18/2025 - 06/16/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 12.6 12.2 11.6 10.9 10.5 10.3 10.2
Paradise 368.6 367.9 366.8 365.1 364.6 364.4 364.3
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 4.9 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.8 2.6 2.5
:Ohio River
Evansville 16.2 15.8 14.9 14.1 13.6 13.5 13.4
Golconda 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.5
Henderson 14.0 13.8 13.1 12.6 12.2 12.1 12.0
Mount Vernon 23.9 23.8 23.6 23.4 23.3 23.3 23.3
Newburgh Dam 16.9 16.3 14.9 13.9 13.2 13.0 12.9
Owensboro 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 17.6 17.2 16.1 15.3 15.0 14.8 14.8
J.T. Myers Dam 18.4 17.7 15.9 14.6 13.3 12.8 12.7
:Patoka River
Princeton 8.2 7.6 6.5 4.7 3.2 2.7 2.5
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.1
:Wabash River
New Harmony 5.1 4.3 3.3 2.7 2.0 1.6 1.6
:Current River
Van Buren 2.8 2.5 2.3 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 17.4 17.4 17.3 15.6 14.5 12.3 3.8
Hickman 18.4 16.6 15.6 13.3 10.3 7.4 6.1
New Madrid 14.7 13.0 12.0 10.0 7.1 3.9 3.6
Thebes 16.8 16.8 16.8 14.9 13.7 12.1 4.1
:Ohio River
Cairo 25.0 23.4 22.5 19.8 16.3 13.2 12.2
Olmsted Lock and 21.1 21.1 21.0 21.0 20.9 20.8 19.0
Paducah 14.9 13.9 12.6 10.2 10.0 10.0 10.0
Smithland Dam 15.5 15.2 14.4 13.5 12.1 11.4 10.9
:St. Francis River
Patterson 4.9 4.8 4.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
This will be the last Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook for
the season unless conditions warrant.
$$
ML