SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK #1 - ISSUED FEBRUARY 13, 2025
Spring Hydrologic Outlook
tEXT PRODUCT WITH PROBABILITIES
PROBABILISTIC HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
1030 AM CST THU FEB 13 2025
...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...
This outlook is for the NWS Paducah service area. It covers the time
period for mid-February through mid-April. It includes the mid-
Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers and their tributaries for
southwest Indiana, southern Illinois, west Kentucky and southeast
Missouri.
...Flood Outlook Highlights...
Flood potential is normal to above normal across the Ohio Valley and
its tributaries. Flood potential is normal to below normal for the
outlook period for the Mississippi River Valley and its smaller
tributaries. A La Nina, albeit a weakening one, has played a role in
what has been an increasingly wetter late winter in the Ohio Valley.
Flooding in this region occurs mainly due to conditions of ground
moisture, river flows, and expected precipitation. Ice jams are
rarely a factor in flooding for this part of the country.
...Current Conditions...
A mix of rain, sleet and snow fell over the region last week leaving
wet conditions. Heavier rain fell across central Kentucky causing
the Green River to rise above flood stage. This has also lead to a
rise on parts of the Ohio River from Owensboro to Shawneetown.
Smaller rivers in southeast Missouri are running near normal. The
Ohio River near the confluence with the Mississippi River is running
above normal and the Mississippi River above Cairo is running below
normal.
Soil moisture is above normal across extreme southeast Missouri and
southern counties in west Kentucky. Soil moisture is near normal
elsewhere. There is no frost depth in our region. There is very
little snow in the Mississippi or the Ohio Valleys that would
contribute significant runoff for flooding.
...Probabilistic Outlooks...
In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.
CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.
HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.
When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.
...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
: Current and Historical
: Chances of Exceeding
: Flood Categories
: as a Percentage (%)
Categorical :
Flood Stages (FT) : Minor Moderate Major
Location Minor Mod Major : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : --- --- --- --- --- ---
:Green River
Calhoun 23.0 26.0 32.0 : 63 45 49 32 <5 7
Paradise 380.0 386.0 400.0 : >95 78 58 38 <5 <5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 27.0 32.0 35.0 : 86 68 61 40 40 21
:Ohio River
Evansville 42.0 48.0 52.0 : 58 33 <5 <5 <5 <5
Golconda 40.0 49.0 55.0 : 73 51 11 10 <5 <5
Henderson 36.0 43.0 48.0 : 78 47 <5 <5 <5 <5
Mount Vernon 35.0 45.0 52.0 : >95 77 14 9 <5 <5
Newburgh Dam 38.0 48.0 56.0 : >95 85 <5 6 <5 <5
Owensboro 40.0 44.0 49.0 : 73 42 19 10 <5 <5
Shawneetown 33.0 43.0 53.0 : >95 88 41 42 <5 <5
J.T. Myers Dam 37.0 49.0 60.0 : >95 80 14 10 <5 <5
:Patoka River
Princeton 18.0 20.0 23.0 : 94 66 77 50 36 20
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 15.0 17.0 20.0 : 62 44 51 36 35 24
:Wabash River
New Harmony 15.0 20.0 23.0 : 93 84 36 25 <5 <5
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 16.0 19.0 21.0 : 26 36 10 17 <5 10
:Current River
Doniphan 13.0 18.0 22.0 : 16 24 6 14 <5 9
Van Buren 20.0 23.0 27.0 : <5 14 <5 9 <5 7
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 32.0 37.0 42.0 : 53 79 23 52 12 25
New Madrid 34.0 40.0 44.0 : 41 58 8 21 <5 <5
Thebes 33.0 37.0 42.0 : 38 68 20 44 9 21
:Ohio River
Cairo 40.0 47.0 53.0 : 70 93 44 57 15 31
Olmsted Lock and 36.0 42.0 47.0 : 73 91 52 61 29 35
Paducah 39.0 43.0 52.0 : 59 68 41 50 9 14
Smithland Dam 40.0 48.0 50.0 : 48 57 11 19 9 15
:St. Francis River
Fisk 20.0 22.0 26.0 : 17 25 13 24 6 21
Patterson 16.0 25.0 32.0 : 32 55 8 19 <5 9
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 20.0 27.0 34.0 : 64 61 16 11 <5 <5
Murphysboro 22.0 28.0 36.0 : 68 70 44 44 16 15
Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet
In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.
...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Exceeding Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 18.0 18.4 20.6 25.8 29.2 31.3 31.7
Paradise 381.4 381.9 383.9 387.0 390.3 392.4 394.2
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 23.4 26.1 29.1 34.4 36.0 37.2 37.8
:Ohio River
Evansville 38.8 39.3 41.0 42.5 43.7 44.8 45.2
Golconda 36.8 38.0 39.8 42.3 46.3 49.1 50.9
Henderson 34.1 34.6 36.3 38.0 39.2 40.4 40.9
Mount Vernon 37.7 38.3 39.7 41.7 43.8 45.4 46.5
Newburgh Dam 41.1 42.4 43.4 44.5 45.6 46.9 47.5
Owensboro 36.6 38.2 39.9 41.5 43.3 44.9 45.5
Shawneetown 34.1 36.2 38.9 41.9 44.9 47.9 50.7
J.T. Myers Dam 37.4 39.4 41.8 44.6 47.2 49.6 51.5
:Patoka River
Princeton 17.8 18.5 20.3 21.7 24.0 25.5 25.8
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 10.5 11.1 12.5 17.2 21.9 24.6 25.6
:Wabash River
New Harmony 14.8 15.6 17.9 19.4 20.5 21.6 21.9
:Black River
Poplar Bluff 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.1 16.2 19.1 19.9
:Current River
Doniphan 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.7 9.6 15.2 18.4
Van Buren 5.2 5.2 5.2 5.2 11.1 15.9 19.1
:Mississippi River
Cape Girardeau 22.0 25.0 27.4 32.7 36.2 42.8 47.1
New Madrid 22.3 23.9 25.7 32.3 37.1 38.4 43.2
Thebes 21.4 23.5 26.0 31.2 35.1 41.1 44.7
:Ohio River
Cairo 34.9 36.8 38.7 45.6 51.8 53.6 60.5
Olmsted Lock and 31.9 33.0 35.5 42.6 47.9 50.9 57.2
Paducah 30.6 31.4 34.1 41.5 45.5 50.1 56.7
Smithland Dam 29.6 30.3 32.7 39.7 43.7 48.4 55.0
:St. Francis River
Fisk 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.5 16.5 23.2 27.1
Patterson 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 17.8 23.3 28.8
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 16.7 17.0 18.5 21.5 23.9 29.3 32.5
Murphysboro 16.1 17.3 20.7 24.4 32.1 42.3 43.5
In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.
...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...
Chance of Falling Below Stages
at Specific Locations
Valid Period: 02/18/2025 - 05/19/2025
Location 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
-------- ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Green River
Calhoun 13.3 13.0 11.9 11.1 10.5 10.3 10.2
Paradise 370.5 369.9 367.7 366.0 364.9 364.7 364.5
:Little Wabash River
Carmi 11.2 9.0 5.8 4.7 3.9 3.5 3.3
:Ohio River
Evansville 20.2 19.3 16.7 15.8 14.9 14.4 14.1
Golconda 30.5 30.2 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.6
Henderson 17.1 16.5 14.4 13.7 13.1 12.7 12.5
Mount Vernon 24.6 24.3 24.0 23.8 23.6 23.5 23.4
Newburgh Dam 21.5 20.6 17.7 16.3 15.1 14.4 14.0
Owensboro 19.8 19.6 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.0
Shawneetown 21.3 20.6 18.2 17.2 16.1 15.6 15.2
J.T. Myers Dam 22.8 22.1 19.2 17.7 15.9 15.2 14.3
:Patoka River
Princeton 10.4 9.7 8.6 6.9 5.6 4.7 3.6
:Skillet Fork River
Wayne City 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3 5.2
:Wabash River
New Harmony 5.7 5.3 4.1 3.5 2.9 2.2 2.0
:Big Muddy River
Plumfield 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5
These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s advanced hydrologic prediction
service.
...Weather Outlooks...
A fairly strong storm system will move into the region later in the
day Friday. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible Friday night
and through the day Saturday. North of the Ohio River, one to two
inches of rain is possible. South of the Ohio River, 3 to 4 inches
of rain is possible with isolated higher amounts near the Tennessee
state line. Cold air will settle over the region next week with the
chance for a more wintry storm system by mid-week.
The 8 to 14 day outlook for February 20 through 26 calls for below
normal temperatures and below normal precipitation. During this
time, normal average temperatures are around 40 degrees and rainfall
during this period is between 0.75 and 1 inch.
The Outlook through the rest of February calls for above normal
precipitation. Normal precipitation for February is between 3 and 4
inches. The outlook for February through April calls for above
normal precipitation.
Visit our web site weather.gov/pah for more weather and water
information.
The next Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be issued
February 27, 2025.