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WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH 700 AM EST Friday November 29 2024 THE FOLLOWING IS THE 30-DAY WATER RESOURCES OUTLOOK FOR THE MONTH OF XXXX .WATER RESOURCES STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK... Streamflows remain somewhat below normal across northern Indiana, portions of Ohio and middle Tennessee, but were near normal elsewhere. December is not expected to be particularly wet this year, so streamflows will likely remain normal and below normal. ..................................................................... .HYDROLOGIC FLOOD AND DROUGHT POTENTIAL... Excessively dry conditions received some relief during November as rainfall patterns closer to normal returned to the Ohio Valley in most areas. But December will begin under a cooler, drier airmass that looks to hold through at least the first half of December. Outside of an isolated ice jam flood, there is practically no potential for flooding in early December. A pattern shift to a wetter regime is expected during the second half of the month, which would bring the threat of flooding closer to normal levels by year's end. Significant changes in current drought conditions are not expected. ..................................................................... .PAST 30 DAY HYDROLOGICAL AND METEOROLOGICAL REVIEW... RAINFALL DEPARTURES... For the first time in many months, the majority of the Ohio Valley received above normal rainfall. November brought the highest totals to southern Indiana, eastern Kentucky, eastern Tennessee and West Virginia where amounts were 125-200% of normal. Areas that remained drier than normal included northern Indiana, northwest Ohio, the western half of Tennessee and far western Virginia where amounts were 75-25%. https://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/images/dynamic/latest30day.jpeg SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS... The bulk of the Ohio Valley has normal to drier than normal soils. Moisture over southeastern Ohio remains the driest with areas ranking below the 5 percentile. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/soilmst/w.shtml STREAMFLOW CONDITIONS... Streamflows remain somewhat below normal across northern Indiana, portions of Ohio, and middle Tennessee, but are near normal elsewhere. https://waterdata.usgs.gov/index.php?id=real ..................................................................... .ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTION AND OSCILLATION FORECASTS FOR THE NEXT MONTH... TELECONNECTION/OSCILLATION PATTERN ARCTIC OSCILLATION Negative = Below nomal NORTH ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Neutral = Minimal departure PACIFIC/NORTH AMERICAN TELECONNECTION Positive = Below normal ENSO - EL NINO/LA NINA OSCILLATION Developing La Nina = Minimal departure https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov ..................................................................... .TECHNICAL DISCUSSION... With rivers currently in their banks at or below normal levels, and with the region entering a cold, dry pattern, there will be no threat of flooding in the first half of the month of December. The only exception is the potential for some random, ice jam flooding, since some ice is likely to start forming on rivers of the northern Ohio Valley due to the persistent temperatures below freezing. During the second half of the month a wetter pattern is expected to return to the region, bringing periodic weather systems featuring some significant rainfall. This will bring some rises on area rivers and a return to a more normal threat of flooding for December. ....................................................................... VISIT OUR WATER RESOURCES WEBSITE AT http://www.weather.gov/ohrfc/WRO IN ADDITION TO A 30-DAY STREAMFLOW OUTLOOK...YOU CAN ALSO OBTAIN A 60- AND 90-DAY OUTLOOK AT THE WEBSITE $$