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North Central River Forecast Center

River Forecast Center

QPF Scenario Guidance About

Weather.gov > North Central River Forecast Center > QPF Scenario Guidance About

More information about Experimental Mississippi & Illinois River 28-Day Forecast Plots

OVERVIEW

These experimental 28-day forecast plots for sites on the Mississippi and Illinois Rivers show future time series using different sources of future precipitation and include different levels of forecaster input and quality control.  These products are generated once daily with ~6/7 am starting time, and made available here around 11am.  Official operational river forecasts may differ, and can be found through the NCRFC / NWS  AHPS. 

MODEL PRECIPITATION INPUTS / FORCINGS FOR QPF SCENARIOS

Operational NCRFC QPF Scenario (red line)

The operational QPF used in the NCRFC River model varies between 1-Day during warm season (beginning April 1st), and 2-Day during cold season (beginning October 1st). NCRFC QPF produces Day 1 to 5 QPF based on input from WPC, with adjustments based on local NWS Forecaster guidance.  This time series may also differ from the operational forecast as updates are issued more frequently, and during high impact hydrologic events, or for significant high confidence weather systems, we may extend our QPF inputs for operational forecasting.

NCRFC 5-Day QPF Scenario (green line)

This is an automated forecast model run that includes Day 1-5 QPF produced by NCRFC forecasters.  The initial 1 to 2-Day QPF is similar to the operational forecast as noted above, but may not include forecasters interaction such as inputs for changes in reservoir and dam operations.

NAEFS 16-Day QPF Scenario (blue line)

QPF for Days 1-16 comes from NAEFS (North American Ensemble Forecasting System), a multinational effort involving Canada, Mexico, and the United States to produce forecast guidance based on model ensemble forecasts run at Environment Canada and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP). This product interprets an ensemble of 40 different numerical model forecasts to produce guidance for a probabilistic prediction of the mean surface temperatures and accumulated precipitation.