Surf Forecast Matrices

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the NWS Mobile/Pensacola forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Dauphin Island, AL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     1    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    3    2    3    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        43   41   41   47   52   50   49   46   45   44   45   49   53   55
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N18  N20  N18  N15  N15  N15  N17 NE16 NE16 NE15 NE15 NE12  NE9  NE8
Wind Gust          24                                                                 


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    1    1    2    4    7    6    4    7   11   11   10   17   19   10
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      2    3    3    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    5   10   10   10   10   10   30   50   50   40   30   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None  Low  Low  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld
Temperature        52   51   57   58   57   56   61   62   61   61   64   64   64   62   63
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E13  E15  E14  E13  E14  E14  E13  E12  E13  E14 SE14 SE13 SE13  E14  E14
Wind Gust

Fort Morgan, AL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    4    4    4    3    3    3    3    3    3    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        43   41   41   48   52   51   48   46   43   42   44   51   55   55
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N17  N17  N16  N14  N14  N14  N15 NE14 NE14 NE13 NE13  NE9  NE8  NE7
Wind Gust          24   23   22                  21   20                              


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    1    4    5    8   10    8    5    8   14   16   14   21   24   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    5   10   10   10   10   10   30   50   50   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None  Low  Low  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        51   50   59   58   56   54   62   62   61   61   66   66   64   61   65
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NE10  E13  E13  E12  E12  E13  E12   E9  E12  E13 SE14 SE12 SE12  E13  E14
Wind Gust               18                            14

Gulf Shores, AL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    3    4    4    4    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        41   38   41   48   53   50   46   43   41   40   44   52   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N17  N17  N16  N14  N14  N14  N15  N14 NE14 NE13 NE13 NE10  NE9  NE8
Wind Gust          23   22   21                                                       


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    1    3    4    5    6    5    4    6    9   12   10   14   16   11
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      3    3    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    4    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    5   10   10   10   10   10   30   50   50   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None  Low  Low  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        50   49   59   58   56   54   63   62   61   61   67   66   64   61   66
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NE12  E13  E14  E10  E12  E13  E12  E10  E13  E14 SE14 SE13 SE13  E14  E15
Wind Gust

Orange Beach, AL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      2    3    3    3    4    4    4    3    3    3    3    3    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        41   38   41   48   53   50   46   43   41   39   44   52   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N16  N15  N15  N13  N13  N13  N14  N13 NE13 NE12 NE12 NE10  NE9  NE7
Wind Gust          22   21   20                                                       


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    1    3    5    7    8    6    4    6   11   15   13   17   19   13
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    3    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    4    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    5    5   10   10   10   10   30   50   50   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None  Low None  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        49   48   59   58   55   53   63   62   60   60   67   65   64   61   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)       NE10  E12  E13  E10  E10  E12  E12   E9  E12  E13 SE14 SE12 SE12  E13  E14
Wind Gust

Fort Pickens, FL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    3    3    3    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        42   39   41   48   53   51   47   44   42   41   45   52   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N17  N17  N16  N14  N14  N14  N15  N14 NE14 NE14 NE13 NE10  NE9  NE8
Wind Gust          22   22   21                  20                                   


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    1    3    4    6    6    4    3    5    9   13   11   15   17   12
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      4    3    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    4    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    5    5    5    5   10   10   20   50   50   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        50   49   58   58   56   53   63   63   61   60   66   66   65   62   66
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E13  E14  E13  E10  E12  E13  E12  E10  E13  E15 SE14 SE13 SE14  E14  E15
Wind Gust                                                                                20

Pensacola Beach, FL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      2    2    2    3    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        42   39   41   49   53   51   47   45   43   41   45   53   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N18  N17  N16  N14  N15  N15  N15  N15 NE14 NE13 NE13 NE10  NE9  NE9
Wind Gust               25   23   20   21   21   22   21   21   20             14     


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     1    3    5    6    8    6    4    3    5   11   15   14   19   22   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    2    2    2    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      3    3    4    5    5    5    4    4    5    4    4    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    5    5    5    5   10   20   40   50   50   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None  Low None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        49   47   58   59   55   52   63   63   60   60   67   67   65   62   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E13  E15  E12  E12  E12 NE13  E12  E10  E13  E15 SE15 SE14 SE14  E15  E15
Wind Gust          18   21   17        18   18        15   18   21   21   20   21   22   22

Navarre Beach, FL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      3    3    3    2    2    2    2    2    4    3    2    3    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        41   38   41   50   54   51   45   42   40   38   44   53   56   53
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N16  N16  N15  N14  N15  N14  N14  N14 NE14 NE13 NE12 NE10  NE9  NE9
Wind Gust          21   21   21   20   20                                             


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    2    6    6    7    5    3    2    3    9   14   12   17   19   15
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      3    3    4    5    5    4    4    4    4    4    4    5    5    5    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    5    5    5    5   10   20   40   50   50   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Mcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        47   44   58   58   52   49   63   62   58   57   66   66   63   60   68
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E13  E14  E12 NE10  E12 NE12  E12   E9  E12  E13 SE15 SE13 SE13  E14  E15
Wind Gust                         15                            18   20             20   21

Fort Walton Beach, FL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    0    0    0    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      4    4    4    4    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        41   38   41   49   54   51   46   42   41   39   44   53   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N16  N15  N15  N14  N14  N13  N14  N13 NE13 NE13 NE12 NE12 NE10  NE9
Wind Gust          21   21   21                                                       


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    2    4    4    4    2    2    1    2    5    9    9   12   12   10
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      3    4    4    5    5    4    4    4    4    4    4    5    5    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    5    5    5    5   10   20   40   50   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        47   44   57   58   52   49   62   62   57   57   66   66   63   60   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E13  E14  E12 NE10  E12 NE12  E12   E9  E12  E13 SE14 SE13  E13  E14  E15
Wind Gust                         15                            18   20                  20

Destin, FL

Date               Sat 12/21                               Sun 12/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      4    4    4    4    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        42   39   41   49   54   51   47   45   43   41   44   53   56   54
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N18  N16  N16  N15  N15  N15  N15  N15 NE14 NE14 NE13 NE12 NE12 NE12
Wind Gust               22   21                  20                                   


Date                    Mon 12/23           Tue 12/24           Wed 12/25           Thu 12/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    2    4    3    3    2    1    1    1    4    7    8   12   11    9
Surf Height (ft)    1    2    2    2    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      3    4    4    5    5    4    4    4    3    4    4    5    5    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    5    5    5    5    5   10   20   40   40   40   40   30   30
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        48   45   55   58   53   50   61   62   58   57   66   66   64   61   67
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        E14  E15  E12 NE12  E12 NE12  E12  E10  E12  E14 SE15 SE13  E14  E15  E15
Wind Gust                                                                           20   20

Surf Forecast Matrices

*** EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *