Surf Forecast Matrices

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *

Experimental Surf Forecast Matrix

In the tabs below you can view Surf Forecast Matrices for various beaches over the NWS Mobile/Pensacola forecast area. This product is experimental and not intended to be substituted for the official Surf Zone Forecast, which can be viewed HERE. Additional information on this project and variable definitions can be found HERE. We are seeking feedback on this over the next several months, so please send us your input via an online survey.

The Rip Probabilities included in the matrices below are from a rip current forecast model tied to NOAA's Nearshore Wave Prediction System. This model predicts the probabilities of hazardous rip currents occurring using output from the nearshore wave model and predicted tide levels. Values are calculated from 0-100%, hourly through 144 hours.

Dauphin Island, AL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    22   15    8    3    2    2    2    2    3    3    2    1    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    6    4    3    4    5    5    5    5    4    4
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr
Temperature        54   50   51   57   64   63   62   60   56   53   53   58   62   60
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N22  N18  N18 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW18 NW17 NW17 NW17  N15 NW12 NW12 NW12
Wind Gust          29   24             21        23   22   22                         


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    2    1    2    3    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      2    2    2    2    7    7    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10   10
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        55   51   57   62   60   62   70   70   71   71   73   72   72   68   71
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N12  N10   N5   W2  SW2  SE6   S7   S6   S9  SW8   S9   S7  SW9  W10  NW9
Wind Gust

Fort Morgan, AL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    20   13    7    3    2    2    2    2    3    3    2    1    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    6    3    4    4    5    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr
Temperature        54   51   53   58   64   64   62   59   56   53   54   58   62   61
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N22  N16  N15 NW14 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW15 NW16 NW15  N14 NW12 NW12 NW10
Wind Gust          30   24   21   20   21   21   23   22   23   21                  15


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    1    2    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      4    3    3    3    7    7    1    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        55   51   58   62   59   61   70   70   70   71   74   72   72   68   71
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N10   N8   N5   W2   S2  SE3   S6   S6   S7  SW7   S8   S6  SW7   W8  NW8
Wind Gust          15   13                   8             12   12             12   13

Gulf Shores, AL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    13   10    5    2    1    1    1    1    1    2    2    1    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    2    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    7    5    4    5    5    5    5    5    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        51   48   52   58   63   63   60   57   54   51   53   58   62   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N18  N16  N15 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW17 NW15 NW16 NW16 NW14 NW12 NW12 NW12
Wind Gust          24   22   21        21        23   21   21   21                    


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    1    1    1    1
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      4    4    3    4    7    7    1    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        53   48   59   60   57   58   70   70   69   69   74   72   72   67   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         N9   N8   N5  NW3   N2   E2   S7   S6   S7  SW6  SW9  SW6  SW7   W8  W10
Wind Gust          15   13                   7             12                  12

Orange Beach, AL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    14   10    5    2    1    1    1    1    2    2    2    1    0    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    7    7    4    5    6    6    6    6    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        50   47   51   58   63   62   59   56   52   50   52   58   61   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N17  N14  N15 NW15 NW16 NW16 NW16 NW14 NW14 NW14 NW13 NW12 NW12 NW10
Wind Gust          23   21   20                  22   21   21   20                    


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    1    1    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    5    7    7    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover      Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        52   47   59   60   56   57   70   69   68   68   74   72   71   67   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)         N9   N7   N5   W3   N2   E2   S7   S6   S6  SW6  SW9  SW6  SW7   W7   W9
Wind Gust          14   12                   7                                 12   12

Fort Pickens, FL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    15    9    4    2    1    2    2    2    3    3    2    1    1    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    6    4    4    5    6    6    6    6    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        51   48   51   58   63   62   59   56   53   51   53   58   62   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N18  N16  N16 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW17 NW16 NW16 NW16 NW14 NW13 NW13 NW12
Wind Gust          24                  21             21   21                         


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    1    1    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    5    7    7    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    6
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        52   48   59   61   57   57   70   69   69   69   74   72   72   69   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N10   N9   N6  NW5   N2   E3   S7   S6   S8   S7 SW10  SW7  SW8   W8  W10
Wind Gust

Pensacola Beach, FL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    20   12    5    2    1    2    3    3    4    4    3    2    1    0
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    1    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    5    4    4    5    5    6    6    6    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr Mclr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        52   50   53   59   64   62   59   56   53   52   53   58   62   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)        N20  N17 NW16 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW17 NW16 NW16 NW16 NW14 NW13 NW14 NW13
Wind Gust          26             20   22                                             


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    2    2    2    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      4    4    4    3    7    7    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    0    0
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Mclr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        53   49   59   61   57   57   70   68   69   69   75   72   72   69   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N12  N10  NW6  NW6   N3  NE5   S6   S6   S8   S7 SW10  SW8  SW9   W9  W10
Wind Gust

Navarre Beach, FL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    17   11    6    3    2    3    3    4    5    5    5    3    2    1
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    1    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    1
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    5    5    5    5    5    6    6    6    6    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        51   49   53   60   63   62   58   55   51   50   52   58   61   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)       NW17 NW15 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW16 NW16 NW16 NW15 NW15 NW14 NW14 NW14 NW13
Wind Gust          23   20        21   22   21   21                                   


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    2    2    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    4    5    5    1    2    2    2    3    3    3    0    6
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    5   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        50   46   60   60   54   53   69   68   67   67   75   72   71   67   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N10   N9  NW6  NW5   N3  NE3   S7   S6   S7   S6  S12  SW8  SW8   W8  W10
Wind Gust

Fort Walton Beach, FL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    16   10    6    4    3    4    6    8    8   10    9    6    4    2
Surf Height (ft)    2    2    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    2    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    6    4    5    5    5    6    6    6    5    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        50   48   52   59   63   61   57   54   50   49   52   58   61   58
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)       NW16 NW14 NW15 NW15 NW16 NW15 NW16 NW15 NW15 NW15 NW14 NW14 NW14 NW13
Wind Gust          22             20   22   20   21   20                              


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    2    1    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    1    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      5    4    4    4    4    5    1    2    2    2    3    3    3    0    6
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr Mclr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld
Temperature        50   46   60   61   54   53   68   68   67   68   75   72   71   68   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N10   N8  NW6  NW5   N3  NE5   S7   S6   S6   S6  S12  SW8  SW8   W8  W10
Wind Gust

Destin, FL

Date               Thu 11/21                               Fri 11/22
CST 3hrly          03   06   09   12   15   18   21   00   03   06   09   12   15   18

Rip Current Risk  Mod  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low  Low
Rip Probability    17   11    7    5    5    7    9   11   14   17   15   11    7    4
Surf Height (ft)    3    2    2    2    2    2    3    3    3    3    3    2    2    2
Dom Period (s)      7    7    7    7    6    4    5    5    6    6    6    6    6    5
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr
Temperature        53   51   54   60   64   62   58   55   52   50   52   58   62   59
Heat Index                                                                            
Wind (mph)       NW18 NW15 NW15 NW16 NW17 NW17 NW17 NW16 NW16 NW15 NW15 NW14 NW14 NW14
Wind Gust          24   20   20   21   22                                             


Date                    Sat 11/23           Sun 11/24           Mon 11/25           Tue 11/26
CST 6hrly          00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12   18   00   06   12

Rip Probability     1    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    2    2    2    2    2
Surf Height (ft)    2    1    1    0    0    0    0    0    0    1    1    1    1    1   MM
Dom Period (s)      5    5    4    4    4    5    1    2    2    2    3    3    3    0    6
Chance Precip       0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0    0   10   10    5
TSTM Potential   None None None None None None None None None None None None None None None
Cloud Cover       Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr  Clr Mclr  Clr  Clr Pcld Pcld Pcld Pcld Mclr Pcld Pcld
Temperature        52   48   59   61   56   55   67   69   68   68   74   72   72   69   73
Heat Index                                                                                 
Wind (mph)        N10   N9  NW6  NW6   N3  NE5   S6   S6   S6   S6  S10  SW8  SW8   W8  W10
Wind Gust

Surf Forecast Matrices

*** EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE ***

* EXPERIMENTAL - NOT FOR OPERATIONAL USE *