Likelyhood

Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook

Expression of "Likelihood"

Determining "Likelihood"

Likelihood = A x B
Confidence Factor	A-Value	Percent - Occurrence of hazard within a defined area
Slight	.1 or .2	10% to 20% confidence of occurrence
Slight to Medium	.3 or .4	30% to 40% confidence of occurrence
Medium	.5	50% confidence of occurrence
Medium to High	.6 or .7	60% or 70% confidence of occurrence
High	.8 or .9	80% or 90% confidence of occurrence
Coverage Factor	B-Value	Percent - Distribution of observations and/or reports within a defined area
Isolated	.1 or .2	across 10% to 20% of defined area
Isolated to Scattered	.3 or .4	across 30% to 40% of defined area
Scattered	.5	across 50% of defined area
Scattered to Widespread	.6 or .7	across 60% to 70% of defined area
Widespread	.8 or .9	across 80% to 90% of defined area