Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid March 20, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by April 18, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) drought conditions in Greenlee county; parts of Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Pima and Pinal counties. Severe (D2) drought conditions across the rest of southeast Arizona. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Greenlee county; Graham county from Safford north and east; eastern portions of Cochise county east of a Willcox to Douglas line; majority of Santa Cruz county; far northern & western portions of southeast Pinal county; western Pima county. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Pima and Pinal counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for southeast Arizona One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: No degradation was observed No Change: All of southeast Arizona Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending March 20, 2025 There were a couple of weather systems that brought rain and mountain snow in the past month. Rainfall amounts in the valleys were mostly below 0.50” with localized areas up to 1”. Mountain liquid amounts below 7000’ were generally in the 0.50” to 1.50” with localized totals near 2”. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending March 19, 2025 Although a couple of weather systems brought precipitation and briefly cooler than normal temperatures, most of southeast Arizona was above normal for the past 30 days. The exception were areas along the Arizona/New Mexico border that were below normal. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Some river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. While some rivers basins are at normal to above normal due to recent rainfall. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be below normal due as dry conditions continue across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Fire Danger has been generally High to Very High across the region in March. Both live and dead fuel moistures are below than normal despite the several latel winter weather systems bringing mountain snow and light valley rain. There has been periods of warming with breezes between winter weather systems that aided fuels to dry out quickly. Above normal fire potential expected to continue through April and into May. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid March 19, 2025 Conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River continue to be at below to much below normal streamflow. There are short term improvements in the Santa Cruz River and San Simon River watersheds due to recent rainfall causing minimal streamflow in normally dry rivers. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be well below normal for this time of the year in southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Right: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid March 16, 2025 Left: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending March 19, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Areas of above normal fire potential will be evident across east Arizona, including the Mogollon Rim, in April (left map). Above normal fire potential will persist across Southeast Arizona and expanding in most of the state (right map). Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following month: Left: April; Right: May National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued March 3, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Monday March 20, 2025 to Monday March 27, 2025 Dry conditions to close out the month of March for most of southeast Arizona. The exception is a low probability (10%) for a few thunderstorms over the White mountains on March 27. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid April 1, 2025 to June 30, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for April 1 to June 30 leans toward above normal, 50% to 70% chance across the entire area. The precipitation outlook for April 1 to June 30 favors below normal precipitation, 40% to 50% chance across the entire area. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released February 28, 2025 valid for March 20, 2025 to June 30, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions will persist across southeast Arizona through the end of June. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.