Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid February 21, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by March 22, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Extreme (D3) drought conditions in Greenlee county; parts of Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Pima and Pinal counties. Severe (D2) drought conditions across the rest of southeast Arizona. No significant rain is expected over the next month. 1 Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Greenlee county; Graham county from Safford north and east; eastern portions of Cochise county east of a Willcox to Douglas line; majority of Santa Cruz county; far northern & western portions of southeast Pinal county; western Pima county. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Graham, Cochise, Santa Cruz, Pima and Pinal counties. D1 (Moderate Drought): No areas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 1-week change map for southeast Arizona Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: The majority of southeast Arizona saw either a 1 or 2 class degradation over the past month. No Change: Far southeast Cochise county near Douglas. Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending February 21, 2025 Southeast Arizona had a couple precipitation events during the past 30 days. Rainfall totals were light, mostly less than 0.20” with isolated amounts up to 0.80”. Overall rainfall over the past 30 days has been below normal to well below normal. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending February 20, 2025 After a cooler than normal January, February so far has been very warm across southeast Arizona. Thus over the past 30 days, most of southeast Arizona has been up to 2° above normal. The exception is north-central Cochise county which has been running up to 1° below normal. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to be below normal due to the continued dry conditions across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Moderate to Very High Fire danger has been observed across Southeast Arizona. The dry and warm conditions has helped to increase the curing and drying of fuels. This trend will stay likely elevated into spring season, especially with the expected of the common Spring breezy conditions. As result, significant fire potential will increase to above normal in March and continuing to spread westward in April. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid February 20, 2025 Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona continue to have below normal streamflow. With conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River at much below normal streamflow. Fire Hazard Impacts Significant fire potential will be above normal across in southeast Arizona for March (left map). Areas of above normal fire potential will spread across east Arizona, including the Mogollon Rim, in April. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following month: Left: March; Right: April National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued February 3, 2025 Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values continue to degrade and are well below normal for this time of the year across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid February 19, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending February 20, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday February 20, 2025 to Thursday February 27, 2025 Dry conditions to close out the month of February. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook ?? Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid March 1, 2025 to May 31, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for March 1 to May 31 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the entire area. The precipitation outlook for March 1 to May 31 favors below normal precipitation, 40% to 60% chance across the entire area. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released February 20, 2025 valid for February 20, 2025 to May 31, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions with persist across southeast Arizona through the end of May. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.