Drought Information Statement for Southeast Arizona Valid February 7, 2025 Issued By: National Weather Service Tucson, AZ Contact Information: w-twc.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by February 21, 2025 or sooner if drought conditions worsen significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/twc/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/ for regional drought status updates. Drier than normal conditions since late summer has led to slowly deteriorating drought conditions across southeast Arizona. Extreme drought conditions across most of Graham and Greenlee counties. Severe drought conditions across the rest of southeast Arizona except eastern Pima/Pinal counties (moderate drought conditions). 1 Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Most of Greenlee county and northern half of Graham county. D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of Graham & Greenlee counties, most of Cochise and Santa Cruz counties and western half of Pima county. D1 (Moderate Drought): Eastern Pima and Pinal counties and far western Cochise county. D0: (Abnormally Dry): No areas. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast Arizona Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for [region] One Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drought Worsened: Most of Greenlee county and northern half of Graham county. No Change: Remainder of southeast Arizona. Drought Improved: No improvement was observed. Precipitation Data over the past 30 days ending February 7, 2025 Most of southeast Arizona has seen very little precipitation over the past 30 days. Temperature Image Captions: Left - Average Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Right - Departure from Normal Temperature for Arizona w/southeast Arizona in highlighted gray box Data Courtesy Western Regional Climate Center. Data over the past 30 days ending February 6, 2025 Although the start of February has been very warm, thanks to the cooler than normal January, the average temperatures over the past 30 days have been mostly 2° to 5° below normal for southeast Arizona. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona have below to much below normal streamflow conditions. (USGS Streamflow) Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values have decreased and are below normal due to the continued dry conditions across the area. (Soil Moisture Observations) Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger has been moderate to high due to the warm and dry conditions since the start of winter. This trend will stay likely elevated through the rest of winter and into spring, especially with the expected outlook of dry, warm, and breezy conditions. Significant fire potential will increase to above normal starting in March. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid February 6, 2025 Majority of the river basins in Southeastern Arizona have below normal streamflow. With conditions in the Upper San Pedro River and Upper Gila River at much below normal streamflow. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture values are well below normal for this time of the year across southeast Arizona. Image Captions: Left: CPC Calculated Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile valid February 5, 2025 Right: Crop Moisture Index. Weekly value for period ending February 1, 2025 Fire Hazard Impacts Significant fire potential will be normal across Arizona for February (left map). Areas of above normal fire potential will arise across southeast Arizona in March. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Image Captions: The two images are for Significant Wildland Fire Monthly for the following month: Left: February; Right: March National Wildland Significant Fire Potential Outlook text issued February 3, 2025 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Wednesday February 6, 2025 to Wednesday February 13, 2025 Dry conditions for most of the next 7 days. There is a slight chance, less than 20%, of very light precipitation on the 13th. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook ?? Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid February 1, 2025 to April 30, 2025 Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage The temperature outlook for February 1 to April 30 leans toward above normal, 40% to 60% chance across the entire area. The precipitation outlook for February 1 to April 30 favors below normal precipitation, 40% to 60%, across the entire area. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released January 31, 2025 valid for January 31, 2025 to April 30, 2025 Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Drought conditions with persist across southeast Arizona through mid-Spring. Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.