Drought Information Statement for Eastern OK & Northwestern AR Valid November 1, 2024 Issued By: WFO Tulsa, OK Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 6, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132&state=All for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions expanded across most of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Heavy rainfall over the next 5 days will help improve the ongoing drought conditions. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): portions of Osage, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Tulsa, Rogers, Mayes, Delaware, Wagoner, Cherokee, Adair, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, Choctaw, and Le Flore Counties in northeast OK, and Benton, Carroll, Washington, and Madison Counties in northwest AR. D2 (Severe Drought): portions of Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa, Creek, Wagoner, Cherokee, Adair, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Latimer, Le Flore, and Pushmataha Counties in eastern OK, and Washington, Crawford, Madison, Franklin, and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR D1 (Moderate Drought): portions of Creek, Okmulgee, Adair, Cherokee, Wagoner, Muskogee, McIntosh, Haskell, Pittsburg, Latimer, and Le Flore Counties in eastern OK, and Washington, Crawford, Franklin, and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR D0: (Abnormally Dry): parts of Muskogee, Cherokee, Adair, Sequoyah, and Le Flore Counties in eastern OK and Crawford and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: all counties in eastern OK and northwest AR No Change: portions of Osage, Washington, Notawa, Craig, and Rogers Counties in eastern OK, and Crawford County in northwest AR. Precipitation For the 7-day period through the morning of Nov. 1, 2024, 0.5” to 3” of rain fell across eastern OK and northwest AR. For the 30 days ending Oct. 27, 2024, rainfall totals across the area ranged from 0” to 0.5”, This corresponds to 0%-25% of the normal rainfall. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is below to much below average for this time of year for numerous basins in eastern OK and northwest AR. Numerous reservoirs were below 90% of their conservation pools. Agricultural Impacts Numerous reports from farmers and producers across eastern OK and northwest AR of dry ponds, cracked ground, little to no forage, supplemental feed and water needed for cattle, and stressed mature trees. Lack of recent rain and above normal temperatures has resulted in lower soil moisture for agriculture. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are in effect for large parts of OK and AR. There has been an uptick in wildfire numbers and sizes especially during the latter half of October across the area. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts According to the USGS, the 7-day average streamflow as of Oct. 31, 2024 was much below normal across the upper Arkansas River, Verdigris River, and Spring River basins in northeastern OK, the Kiamichi River and Red River basins in southeastern OK, and the White River basin in northwestern AR (image on the right). According to the USACE, the following reservoirs were more than 5% below the top of their conservation pools as of October 28, 2024: Ft. Gibson Lake 25% Wister Lake 42% Hugo Lake 53% Eufaula Lake 66% Skiatook Lake 69% Keystone Lake 69% Heyburn Lake 74% Hulah Lake 75% Beaver Lake 76% Copan Lake 77% Birch Lake 78% Oologah Lake 84% Kaw Lake 86% Sardis Lake 91% Image Caption: USGS 7-day average streamflow HUC map valid October 31, 2024 Agricultural Impacts According to the CPC, soil moisture was below normal for most of eastern OK and northwestern AR, with all of northeast OK and northwest AR below the 10th percentile, as of Oct. 31, 2024 (left image). The CPC weekly Crop Moisture Index was severely dry for most of eastern OK and northwestern AR as of Oct. 26, 2024 (right image). According to the OK Farm Report, the OK Emergency Drought Committee approved a new program on Oct. 28 to deliver critical drought relief for Oklahoma agricultural producers. There have been numerous reports from local farmers and producers across the D3 areas of eastern OK and northwest AR stating dry ponds, little to no grazing available, little to no crops, supplemental feed and water are needed for cattle, stressed mature trees, and cracked ground. Links to the OK Mesonet Soil Moisture and Arkansas-Red Basin River Forecast Center modeled zonal soil moisture. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn Bans were in effect for Washington, Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Delaware, Creek, Rogers, Wagoner, Cherokee, Adair, McIntosh, Haskell, Latimer, Le Flore, and Choctaw County in eastern OK and Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, Crawford, Sebastian, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR as of October 31, 2024. The combination of severely reduced moisture in fine grasses and cross timbers resulted in an uptick in wildfire numbers and sizes especially during the latter half of October across the area. Fire activity was also enhanced in the heavier timbers in southeast OK into northwest AR where fuels primed by weeks without wetting rains and terrain resulted in problematic fire behavior. Seven-Day Precipitation Forecast An active weather period is expected over the next 7 days, with several rounds of heavy rainfall. Widespread 4”-10” of rain is forecast over the next 7 days across eastern OK and northwest AR. The heaviest rainfall is expected to fall Nov. 2-4, 2024. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and a likely chance for above median rainfall for all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for October 2024. In the longer term, the outlook for the 3-month period Nov-Dec-Jan 2024 calls for an enhanced chance of above normal temperatures for all of eastern OK and northwest AR. There is an equal chance for above, near, and below median rainfall for northeast OK and northwest AR, and an enhanced chance for below median precipitation across the remainder of for eastern OK and west central AR. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid October 17, 2024 through January 31, 2025 indicates that drought conditions are expected to persist in the areas currently experiencing drought, and develop across the remainder of eastern OK and northwest AR.