Drought Information Statement for Eastern OK & Northwestern AR Valid October 4, 2024 Issued By: WFO Tulsa, OK Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 1, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Please visit https://www.drought.gov/drought-status-updates/?dews_region=132&state=All for regional drought status updates. Moderate (D1) to Extreme (D3) Drought conditions expand across a large portion of eastern Oklahoma and northwestern Arkansas. Flash drought ongoing and expected to continue due to lack of rain and above normal temperatures. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Drought intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): portions of Osage, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Rogers, and Mayes Counties in northeast OK D2 (Severe Drought): portions of Osage, Pawnee, Washington, Tulsa, Rogers, Nowata, Craig, Mayes, Ottawa, Delaware, Choctaw and Pushmataha Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, Washington, Carroll, and Madison Counties in northwest AR D1 (Moderate Drought): portions of Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Tulsa, Rogers, Mayes, Delaware, Adair, Cherokee, Wagoner, Pushmataha, Pittsburg, and Le Flore Counties in eastern OK, and Washington, Madison, and Carroll Counties in northwest AR D0: (Abnormally Dry): parts of Osage, Pawnee, Creek, Okmulgee, McIntosh, Pittsburg, Latimer, Le Flore, Tulsa, Wagoner, Cherokee, and Adair Counties in eastern OK and Washington, Crawford, Sebastian, Franklin, and Madison Counties in northwest AR Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Worsened: Osage, Pawnee, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, McIntosh, Wagoner, Cherokee, Adair, Le Flore, Pittsburg, Latimer, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, Crawford, Franklin, and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR. No Change: in portions of Osage, Pawnee, Tulsa, Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK. Precipitation For the 7-day period through the morning of Oct. 4, 2024, only a few hundredths of an inch of rain has fallen in eastern Carroll County. Otherwise, there has been no rainfall in the last 7 days. For the last 30 days through the morning of Oct. 4, 2024, rainfall totals across the area ranged from 0.4” to 3”, with much of the area receiving 0.1”-1”. This corresponds to 1%-60% of the normal rainfall. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Streamflow is below to much below average for this time of year across northeast OK, southeast OK, and northwest AR. Numerous reservoirs were below 90% of their conservation pools. Agricultural Impacts Low to dry farm ponds and lack of forage are impacting cattle producers in northeast OK. Lack of recent rain and above normal temperatures has resulted in lower soil moisture for agriculture. Fire Hazard Impacts Burn bans are in effect for parts of OK and AR. There is above normal significant wildland fire potential for nearly all of eastern OK and northeast AR. Other Impacts There are no known impacts at this time. Mitigation Actions Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts According to the USGS, the 7-day average streamflow was below below normal across the upper Arkansas River, Verdigris River, and Neosho River basins in northeastern OK, the Kiamichi River and Red River basins in southeastern OK, and the White River basin in northwestern AR (image on the right). According to the USACE, the following reservoirs were more than 5% below the top of their conservation pools as of October 1, 2024: Ft. Gibson Lake 36% Wister Lake 58% Hugo Lake 61% Skiatook Lake 72% Eufaula Lake 76% Hulah Lake 81% Keystone Lake 83% Beaver Lake 83% Copan Lake 85% Birch Lake 85% Kaw Lake 86% Heyburn Lake 86% Oologah Lake 90% Sardis Lake 93% Agricultural Impacts According to the CPC, soil moisture was below normal for most of eastern OK and northwestern AR, with a portion of far northeast OK and far northwest AR below the 10th percentile, as of Oct. 3, 2024 (left image). The CPC weekly Crop Moisture Index was abnormally to excessively dry in eastern OK and northwestern AR as of Sep. 28, 2024 (right image). According to the OK Farm Report, producers are selling off cattle due to water and forage scarcity. According to the OK Climatological Survey, there are numerous reports of dry or nearly dry ponds across northeast OK. Cattle are getting stuck in the mud while attempting to find water. Cattle are being fed hay and protein, which normally does not happen until late December. Burn Bans were in effect for Choctaw County in eastern OK and Benton, Carroll, Madison, Crawford, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR as of October 4, 2024. Enhanced fire spread potential will be based on daily weather conditions. There is above normal significant wildland fire potential for nearly all of eastern OK and northeast AR. Seven-Day Precipitation Forecast Little to no rain is expected over the next 7 days across eastern OK and northwest AR. Above normal temperatures are also expected for the upcoming week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Drought conditions have quickly deteriorated across eastern OK and northwest AR. There is a risk for continued rapid onset drought across eastern OK and northwest AR through mid-October due to a forecast for above normal temperatures and below normal rainfall over the next two weeks. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is an enhanced chance for above normal temperatures and a likely chance for below median rainfall for all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for October 2024. In the longer term, the outlook for the 3-month period of Oct-Nov-Dec 2024 calls for an enhanced chance of above normal temperatures and below median precipitation for all of eastern OK and west central AR. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid September 19 through December 31, 2024 indicates that drought conditions are expected to persist in the areas currently experiencing drought, and develop across the remainder of eastern OK and northwest AR. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook