Drought Information Statement for Eastern OK & Northwestern AR Valid January 19, 2024 Issued By: WFO Tulsa, OK Contact Information: sr-tsa.webmaster@noaa.gov This is the final update. This product will resume when D3 conditions are once again present. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tsa/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) Drought conditions continue across northeast OK and southeast OK as of January 16, 2024. Drought intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Osage, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK. D1 (Moderate Drought): Nowata, Washington, Osage, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Craig, Nowata, Washington, Osage, Rogers, Mayes, Wagoner, Cherokee, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK and Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change: Drought Improved: Osage, Pawnee, Washington, Nowata, Craig, Ottawa, Delaware, Mayes, Rogers, Tulsa, Creek, Wagoner, Cherokee, Adair, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Le Flore, Pittsburg, Latimer, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, Washington, Madison, Crawford, Franklin, and Sebastian Counties in northwest AR. No Change: Nowata, Craig, Pittsburg, Pushmataha, and Choctaw Counties in eastern OK, and Benton, Washington, Carroll, Madison, and Franklin Counties in northwest AR. Precipitation For the 7-day period through the morning of Jan. 19, 2024, 0 to 0.50 inches of rain has fallen across eastern OK and northwestern AR. For the last 30 days through the morning of Jan. 19, 2024, rainfall totals across the area ranged from 1.5” to 5”, with much of the area receiving 2”-4”. This corresponds to 50%-100% of the normal rainfall for a large portion of southeast OK into northwest AR, and 110% to around 250% for much of northeast OK. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Below normal streamflow along the Red River and below normal lake levels at 5 reservoirs Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture was near normal and the weekly crop moisture was above normal. A producer in west central AR reported poor range conditions, though creeks and ponds have improved. Fire Hazard Impacts There are no known impacts at this time; however, wildfire potential will be influenced by daily weather conditions. Mitigation Actions The Town of Copan, OK remains under an Emergency Proclamation that was declared on Sep. 13, 2023 due to a water shortage as the water supply at Copan Lake reached a critically low level, threatening the town's ability to take in water for treatment and distribution. Rain at the end of December allowed the City of Bartlesville, OK to move from Stage 3 of the Water Shortage Ordinance to Stage 2 as of December 19, 2023. This removes the water restrictions for the area. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts According to the USGS, the 7-day average streamflow was below below normal across a portion of the Red River basin in southeastern OK (image on the right). According to the USACE, the following reservoirs were more than 3% below the top of their conservation pools as of January 19, 2024: Copan Lake 34% Skiatook Lake 69% Birch Lake 72% Beaver Lake 75% Eufaula Lake 81% Agricultural Impacts According to the CPC, soil moisture was near normal in eastern OK and northwestern AR as of Jan. 18, 2024 (left image). The CPC weekly Crop Moisture Index was abnormally moist in eastern OK and northwestern AR as of Jan. 13, 2024 (right image). A producer in Sebastian County, AR stated that pasture conditions remain poor as of Jan. 17, 2024, but the ponds have filled over the last two weeks. Seven-Day Precipitation Forecast Rain is likely Sunday evening (Jan. 21) through Monday (Jan. 22) across far eastern OK and northwestern AR. There is a 20%-40% chance of rain Jan. 23-25. The heaviest rainfall will occur on Monday, Jan. 22, with a large portion of eastern OK and northwestern AR expected to receive around 0.5” to 1.5” of rain. For the entire 7-day period, 0.25” to 2” of rain is forecast. There is the possibility of freezing rain and ice accumulation Sunday night through Monday morning. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage According to the Climate Prediction Center (CPC), there is an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures and rainfall for all of eastern OK and northwestern AR for February 2024. In the longer term, the outlook for the 3-month period of Feb-Mar-Apr 2024 calls for an enhanced chance of above median precipitation for eastern OK and west central AR, and equal chances for above, near, and below median precipitation across far northwestern AR. This outlook also calls for an equal chance for above, near, and below normal temperatures for eastern OK and northwestern AR. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) homepage The CPC Seasonal Drought Outlook valid January 18 through April 30, 2024 indicates that drought conditions are expected to improve or end in eastern OK.