Drought Information Statement for MONTANA Valid: September 27, 2024 Issued By: NWS Great Falls, NWS Missoula, NWS Glasgow, NWS Billings Contact Information: This product will be updated, October 31, 2024 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/TFX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. D4 - Exceptional drought conditions continue across a portion of western Montana. D3 - Extreme drought conditions continue across an area of western MT, and isolated areas of far northeastern and far southeastern MT. There has been some expansion to the southeastern MT area. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Montana Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Isolated area in western MT D3 (Extreme Drought): A portion of western MT and isolated areas in eastern MT D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of western, central, and eastern MT D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of western, north central, central, southern and eastern MT D0: (Abnormally Dry): Much of the remainder of the state Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Montana Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Across isolated areas of central, southwestern and far eastern MT, as well as, portions of southeastern MT, during the past four weeks. No Change: No change in drought conditions, over the past month, were observed over a large portion of the state. Drought Improved: Across portions of western, north central, central and southern MT, with isolated areas of improvement in northeastern MT. Precipitation Precipitation (in): During the past month, much of the state received 1.0” to 3.0” of precipitation, with some areas receiving more than 3.0” of moisture. Some areas of the state received less than 1.0” of precipitation. In general, eastern MT received the least amount of precipitation. Percent of Normal Precipitation (%): A large portion of the state received above normal precipitation, while some areas received below normal precipitation amounts. Far eastern and southeastern MT represent an area of widespread below normal precipitation. Temperature Generally, The Treasure State experienced warmer than normal temperatures, for the past month, with isolated areas of far northeastern MT experiencing a greater than 5F warm departure from normal. There are only a couple isolated areas that received cooler than normal temperatures over, the last month. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Above Normal: Some of our basins, east of The Divide are included in the, “above normal,” to, “much above normal,” percentile class, with a portion of the Upper Yellowstone Basin included in the, “high,” range. Normal: The average streamflow for much of MT, is at a level that is considered, “normal.” Below Normal: Some basins located across portions of western, north central, central, southwestern, northeastern and far eastern MT are experiencing, “much below normal,” to, “below normal,” average stream flow. Image Caption: USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC Map, valid: September 24, 2024 Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile resides in the lower range across western, southwestern and portions of far eastern MT. North central and central MT have moved into the 70 to 100 percentile range, with the remainder of the state in the 30 to 70 percentile range. The Crop Moisture Index includes western, central and much of southern MT in an area identified as, “severely dry,” while soil moisture values for southeastern MT are, “abnormally dry.” North central and northeastern MT are considered, “slightly dry/favorably moist.” Fire Hazard Impacts For the month of October, the state of MT is included in an area of normal significant wildland fire potential conditions. Significant wildland fires should be expected at typical times and intervals. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast During the week of, September 27 through October 4, 2024, much of southwestern and eastern MT is forecast to receive less than 0.01” of liquid precipitation. From northwestern, through central, south central and continuing across portions of southeastern MT, generally, 0.01” to 0.25” of liquid precipitation is forecast. Some isolated areas may receive up to 0.5”, during this period. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. As of this time, no significant hazards are forecast to occur across The Treasure State from, October 3rd to 9th. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Looking ahead to October, the Temperature and Precipitation Outlooks show equal chances for above or below normal temperatures and precipitation, statewide. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Persisting: Drought conditions are predicted to persist across portions of southern and eastern MT. Developing: None Improving: Improving drought conditions cover portions of western, central and southwestern MT. Ending: Drought conditions are predicted to enter the ending process across portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and southern MT. No Drought: Portions of northwestern, north central, central and eastern MT, with an isolated area of southern MT, are included in an area of, “no drought.” https://www.drought.gov/states/montana Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts About 28% of the state of Montana is reported, “moderately dry,” with an additional, 56% reported, “severely dry.” This is a 15% increase in severely dry reports, since, August 30, 2024. Montana State Library | National Drought Mitigation Center. 2024. Drought Impacts. [accessed September 27, 2024]. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/76204aa1271a4a7f8a775fc2bba9ef83 Agricultural Impacts Impacts to crops and grasslands Fire Hazard Impacts As fire season gradually approaches an end, drought and dead fuels remain ongoing fire concerns. Other Impacts Burn scar flash flooding remains a high focus. Fishing closed for some areas. Mitigation Actions We continue to monitor potential drought and flooding impacts. Messaging concerns to the public is essential to public safety, and as such, remains a high priority.