Drought Information Statement for MONTANA Valid: July 26, 2024 Issued By: NWS Great Falls, NWS Missoula, NWS Glasgow, NWS Billings Contact Information: This product will be updated, August 31, 2024 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/TFX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. D4 - Exceptional Drought Conditions impact a portion of western Montana. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Montana Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Isolated area in western MT D3 (Extreme Drought): A portion of western MT D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and far southeastern MT D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and far southeastern MT D0: (Abnormally Dry): The remainder of the state, with the exception of an isolated area in southeastern MT Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Montana Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Across portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and southeastern MT, during the past four weeks. No Change: No change in drought conditions, over the past month, were observed over most of central and eastern, MT. Drought Improved: Isolated areas of improvement occurred over northwestern and far east central, MT. Precipitation Precipitation (in): During the past month, most of the state received 0.5” to 1.5” of precipitation, with some isolated areas receiving more than 2.0” of moisture. Some areas of the state received less than 0.5” of precipitation. Percent of Normal Precipitation (%): Most of the state received below normal precipitation, while a few isolated areas received above normal precipitation amounts. Temperature Most of The Treasure State experienced warmer than normal temperatures, with significant portions of western MT, and isolated areas of north central, central, southwestern and far east central MT showing as high as 6F warm departure from normal. There are a few isolated areas where temperatures were slightly cooler than normal. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Above Normal: None Normal: The average streamflow for much of MT, is at a level that is considered, “normal.” Below Normal: Nearly half of the state is experiencing, “below normal,” stream flow, with areas of western, southwestern and north central MT in the, “much below normal,” range. Isolated areas of The Milk River Basin continue within the, “low,” average streamflow percentile class. Image Caption: USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC Map, valid: July 24, 2024 Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile resides in the low range across much of the state, while the remainder of the state ranks in the 30 to 70 percentile range. The Crop Moisture Index includes western, central and much of southern MT in an area identified as, “Severely Dry,” while soil moisture values for north central and eastern MT are considered, “Slightly Dry/Favorably Moist.” Fire Hazard Impacts Montana is included in an area of normal significant wildland fire potential conditions. Significant wildland fires should be expected at typical times and intervals. Grasslands: Fuels are, generally, trending drier. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast During the week of, July 26 to August 2, 2024, much of north central, central and southwest MT is forecast to remain dry. The remainder of the state is, generally, forecast to receive up to 0.1” of liquid precipitation. A few isolated areas may receive up to 0.5”, during this period. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. For the outlook period of, August 2 - 8, 2024, most of eastern MT is included in an area of Rapid Onset Drought Risk. Additionally, the entire state is included as part of a large area of Excessive Heat. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Looking ahead to next month, there is a higher probability for The Treasure State to experience warmer than normal temperatures. Virtually statewide, the Precipitation Outlook shows a better chance for below normal precipitation. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Persisting: Drought conditions are predicted to persist across, virtually, the entire western third of the state, as well as, a portion of far southeastern MT. Developing: The remainder of the state Improving: None Ending: None https://www.drought.gov/states/montana Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook for July 18- October 31, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts More than 47% of the state of Montana is reported, “moderately dry,” with an additional, greater than 17% reported, “severely dry.” Montana State Library | National Drought Mitigation Center. 2024. Drought Impacts. [accessed July 26, 2024]. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/76204aa1271a4a7f8a775fc2bba9ef83 Agricultural Impacts Impacts to crops and grasslands Fire Hazard Impacts An extended period of anomalously hot temperatures with dry conditions, supports the curing of fuels. Other Impacts Heavy downpours in association with thunderstorm activity can cause flash flooding. Impacts to outdoor recreation and tourism Mitigation Actions We continue to monitor potential drought and flooding impacts. Messaging concerns to the public is essential to public safety, and as such, remains a high priority.