Drought Information Statement for MONTANA Valid: July 20, 2024 Issued By: NWS Great Falls, NWS Missoula, NWS Glasgow, NWS Billings Contact Information: This product will be updated, August 31, 2024 or sooner, if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/TFX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. D3 Drought conditions have developed. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Montana Drought intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): None occurring D3 (Extreme Drought): Isolated area in western MT D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of western, southwestern and north central MT D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and far southeastern MT D0: (Abnormally Dry): The remainder of the state, with the exception of an isolated area in southeastern MT Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Montana Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Across portions of western, north central, central, southwestern and southeastern MT, during the past four weeks. No Change: No change in drought conditions, over the past month, were observed over most of central and eastern, MT. Drought Improved: Isolated areas of improvement occurred over northwestern and far eastern, MT. Precipitation Precipitation (in): During the past month, most of the state received 0.5” to 1.5” of precipitation, with some isolated areas receiving more than 2.0” of moisture. Some areas of the state received less than 0.5” of precipitation. Percent of Normal Precipitation (%): Most of the state received below normal precipitation, while some isolated areas received above normal precipitation amounts. Temperature Most of The Treasure State experienced warmer than normal temperatures. There are some isolated areas where temperatures were slightly cooler than normal. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Above Normal: One isolated area of The Lower Yellowstone Basin Normal: The average streamflow for much of MT, is at a level that is considered, “normal.” Below Normal: Nearly half of the state is experiencing, “below normal,” stream flow, with isolated areas of western, southwestern, northern and central MT in the, “much below normal,” range. Isolated areas of The Milk River Basin fall within the, “low,” average streamflow percentile class. Image Caption: USGS 7-day Average Streamflow HUC Map, valid: July 19, 2024 Agricultural Impacts The Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile resides in the low range across the western third of the state, as well as, portions of eastern, MT. The remainder of the state ranks in the 30 to 70 percentile range. The Crop Moisture Index includes western, central and much of southern MT in an area identified as, “excessively dry,” while soil moisture values for north central and southeastern MT are considered, “slightly dry/favorably moist.” Northeastern MT is considered, “abnormally moist.” Fire Hazard Impacts Montana is included in an area of normal significant wildland fire potential conditions. Significant wildland fires should be expected at typical times and intervals. Grasslands: Fuels are, generally, trending drier. Mountains: Snow has melted out. Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast During the week of, July 20-27, 2024, much of western and north central MT is forecast to remain dry. Portions of central, southwestern and eastern MT are forecast to receive, generally, 0.10” or less, of liquid precipitation. A few isolated mountain peaks may receive up to 0.25”, throughout the week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. For the outlook period of, July 27 through August 2, portions of eastern MT are included in an area of rapid onset drought risk. Long Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Looking ahead to next month, there is a higher probability for The Treasure State to experience warmer than normal temperatures. Virtually statewide, the Precipitation Outlook shows a better chance for below normal precipitation. Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Persisting: Drought conditions are predicted to persist across much of the western third of the state of MT, as well as, a portion of eastern MT. Developing: The remainder of the state Improving: None Ending: None https://www.drought.gov/states/montana Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts More than 45% of the state of Montana is reported, “moderately dry,” with an additional, greater than 15% reported, “severely dry.” Montana State Library | National Drought Mitigation Center. 2024. Drought Impacts. [accessed July 20, 2024]. https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/76204aa1271a4a7f8a775fc2bba9ef83 Agricultural Impacts Impacts to crops and grasslands Fire Hazard Impacts An extended period of anomalously hot temperatures with dry conditions, supports the curing of fuels. Other Impacts Heavy downpours in association with thunderstorm activity can still cause flash flooding. Impacts to outdoor recreation and tourism Mitigation Actions We continue to monitor potential drought and flooding impacts. Messaging concerns to the public is essential to public safety, and as such, remains a high priority.