Drought Information Statement for Southeast AL, Southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle & Big Bend 
Valid November 9, 2023
Issued By: WFO Tallahassee, FL
Contact Information: kelly.godsey@noaa.gov, cameron.young@noaa.gov 
This product will be updated November 16, 2023 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly.  
Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements.
Please visit https://www.weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. 
1

U.S. Drought Monitor
Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT November 7.
Extreme Drought has continue to spread across the region. 
Moderate drought has spread farther east across southwest Georgia.

Drought intensity and Extent
D3 (Extreme Drought): Much of Walton, All of Holmes, and Geneva Counties, and portions of Coffee, Dale, Houston, Jackson, and Seminole Counties. 
D2 (Severe Drought): The remainder of of southeast Alabama, the Florida Panhandle, and far southwest Georgia
D1 (Moderate Drought): most of southwest Georgia into the eastern Florida Panhandle and western Big Bend as well as Dixie County. 
D0: (Abnormally Dry): south central Georgia and the western Florida Big Bend
Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle & Big Bend

Recent Change in Drought Intensity
Link to the latest 2-week change map for southeast AL, southwest GA, and the FL Panhandle & Big Bend
Two Week Drought Monitor Class Change. 
Drought Worsened: much of southeast Alabama, southwest Georgia, and the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend

No Change: The rest of the forecast area

Drought Improved: N/A
Image Caption: U.S. Drought Monitor 2-week change map valid 8am EDT November 7. 


Precipitation
Most areas west of the ACF Basin are running 5-12 inches below normal for the last 3 months, or about 20-60% of normal.


Image Captions: 
Left - 30-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for the Southeast US
Right - 60-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for the Southeast US
Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center and Southeast Regional Climate Center. 
Data over the past 30 and 60 days ending November 8, 2023
Since October 1
Since September 1
Since August 1
Rainfall
Percent
Rainfall
Percent
Rainfall
Percent
Tallahassee
2.99”
73.5%
8.28”
92.2%
13.48”
81.3%
Albany
1.26”
41.3%
3.79”
59.0%
8.29”
73.7%
Valdosta
2.71”
62.0%
7.11”
82.8%
18.08”
132.0%
Panama City
1.93”
42.1%
6.36”
65.8%
9.11”
54.3%
Marianna
0.83”
20.8%
5.50”
68.2%
7.64”
58.8%
Dothan
1.13”
30.5%
3.74”
53.4%
6.24”
47.5%
DeFuniak Springs*
1.04”
24.9%
1.77”
19.7%
5.29”
34.9%
Geneva
1.20”
24.6%
2.14”
21.4%
3.20”
20.7%
Quincy*
2.35”
46.9%
5.06”
45.6%
9.68”
56.4%
Arlington*
1.47”
40.3%
2.21”
29.7%
4.74”
35.7%
Attapulgus*
2.14”
60.3%
3.49”
44.6%
8.71”
60.2%
Georgetown*
2.03”
55.0%
5.42”
69.8%
9.62”
71.5%
Note: Precipitation after 8 AM EDT/7 AM CDT Tuesday is incorporated in next week’s Drought Monitor 
*UF FAWN or UGA Mesonet Sites

Temperature
September has largely been within a degree of normal for both highs and lows for the climate sites.

Image Captions: 
Left - 30-Day Average Temperatures for the Southeast US
Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for the Southeast US
Data Courtesy High Plains Regional Climate Center and Southeast Regional Climate Center. 
Data over the past 30 and 60 days ending September 28, 2023

Month-To-Date
Average High (Departure)
Average Low (Departure)
Tallahassee
89.8° (+1.1°)
69.7° (-0.2°)
Apalachicola
87.0° (-1.5°)
71.2° (-0.3°)
Cross City
89.8° (+1.6°)
69.5° (-0.7°)
Albany
87.8° (-0.6°)
67.3° (-1.0°)
Valdosta
89.1° (+1.1°)
68.9° (+2.1°)
Marianna
89.0° (+0.1°)
67.6° (-1.2°)
Dothan
89.6° (+1.1°)
67.5° (-0.1°)

Summary of Impacts
Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter
Hydrologic Impacts 
Many rivers along and west of the ACF basin are running below to well-below normal in terms of streamflow, with an increasing number of streamflows well below normal.
Record low streamflows continue along the Shoal River at Mossy Head and the Little Attapulgus Creek at Attapulgus.

Agricultural Impacts
Alabama & Florida: Peanut and cotton yields are reduced. Cattle farmers are also having to supplement hay for feeding.
Georgia: Some farmers in southwest Georgia have not been able to plant fall forage due to dry conditions and may need to sell cattle since there is little hay or water.

Fire Hazard Impacts
Alabama’s governor has issued a No Burn Order for the entire state of Alabama.
Walton, Holmes, Washington, Bay, and Jackson Counties in Florida are now under burn bans.
Burn restrictions are in place for Early and Miller Counties in Georgia

Other Impacts
The Alabama Department of Economic and Community Affairs Office of Water Resources (ADECA OWR) has declared a Drought Warning for Geneva, Coffee, Dale, and Houston Counties and a drought watch for Henry County. The declaration can be found here.

Mitigation Actions
Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information.

Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts
Image Caption: USGS 28 day average streamflow map valid November 9, 2023
7-Day
Average Streamflow Percentile
14-Day Average Streamflow Percentile
28-Day Average Streamflow Percentile
Shoal River at Mossy Head
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Pea River at Samson
8.3%
9.0%
21.2%
Choctawhatchee River at Caryville
4.4%
4.8%
6.8%
Choctawhatchee River at Bruce
7.0%
6.8%
10.5%
Flint River at Oakfield
9.0%
11.9%
38.5%
Flint River at Albany
4.3%
6.5%
19.5%
Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee
11.0%
9.3%
15.3%
Apalachicola River at Blountstown
6.9%
7.0%
12.2%
Little Attapulgus Creek at Attapulgus
3.2%
3.2%
9.9%
Most rivers along and west of the ACF basin are below to well-below average streamflows.
An increasing number of gages are reporting well-below average streamflows over the last week.
Streamflows for the Shoal River at Mossy Head and the Little Attapulgus Creek at Attapulgus remain the lowest on record for this time of year.
Gages that are much below normal

Agricultural Impacts
Soil moisture is below to well below normal west of the ACF Basin.
Soils have been generally drying area-wide, with a greater rate of drying across the Florida counties in the last couple weeks.
Farmers are reporting peanut and cotton losses, difficulty planting winter crops and fall forage, and have considered selling cattle due to lack of hay and water.
Image Captions: 
Left: 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture Percentile from NASA SPoRT valid November 2, 2023
Right: 0-2 m Relative Soil Moisture 2-week Change from NASA SPoRT valid through November 2, 2023
2023 Crop Reports
Alabama | Florida | Georgia

Fire Hazard Impacts
Burn bans or restrictions are in place for southeast Alabama and parts of the FL Panhandle and southwest GA.
KBDI values continue to climb with many areas west of the ACF now above 600.
There has been a significant uptick in wildfires across the FL Panhandle and southeast AL this week on top of intensifying drought.
Wildfire potential remains above normal for AL this month.


Image Captions: 
Left - Keetch-Byram Drought Index valid November 8, 2023 (Wildland Fire Assessment System)
Right - Significant Wildland Fire Potential for November 2023 (National Interagency Coordination Center)
Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center.
7-Day Significant Fire Potential Outlook from the Southern Area Coordination Center

Seven Day Precipitation Forecast
Little to no rainfall is forecast during the next 7 days, though some longer range predictions do indicate the possibility of increasing rain chances in the latter part of next week. 


Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid Thursday, November 9, 2023 through Thursday, November 16, 2023

Rapid Onset Drought Outlook
Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook.
There is some risk of Rapid Onset Drought in our southeast Alabama counties due to 

Image Caption: 
Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid September 12-18. 

Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook.
Valid MM YYYY

Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook.
Valid MM to MM YYYY

Long-Range Outlooks
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The November outlook favors above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall.
Climatologically, November is a relatively dry month across our area.
Image Captions: 
Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. 
Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook.
Valid November 2023

Average November Temperature
Average November Rainfall
Tallahassee
60.2°
3.10”
Apalachicola
62.1°
3.74”
Cross City
61.8°
2.10”
Albany
58.7°
2.94”
Valdosta
59.0°
2.47”
Marianna
59.6°
3.67”
Dothan
58.9°
3.91”

Image Caption: 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY
Drought Outlook
The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage
The monthly drought outlook shows that drought will persist across much of our CWA through November.
The seasonal drought outlook indicates that improvements and possibly complete removal of drought are expected through January.
Image Caption: 
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released October 31, 2023 valid for November 2023
Links to the latest:
Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook 
Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook