Drought Information Statement for North Louisiana, East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Extreme Southeast Oklahoma Valid December 14, 2023 Issued By: NWS Shreveport Contact Information: sr-shv.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by mid January 2024 unless drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/shv/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Webmaster email or public phone line likely preferred, but individuals may choose to include their contact information directly. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, East TX, and North LA Drought Conditions Have Again Deteriorated in the Last Month Across Deep East Texas, Northwest Louisiana, and Southcentral Arkansas. Severe to Exceptional Drought Continues From the Lower Toledo Bend Country across Northcentral and Northeast Louisiana. Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Southern Sabine County TX into Central LA D3 (Extreme Drought): Northern Sabine County TX and Northcentral/Northeast LA D2 (Severe Drought): San Augustine and Shelby County TX and portions of North LA and Union County AR D1 (Moderate Drought): Lower East TX, extreme Northwest LA, and Southcentral AR D0: (Abnormally Dry): East TX (along the I-20 corridor), extreme Northwest LA/Southwest AR Geography Availability: United States WFO: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfoabq_text.png Where it says “wfoabq” change the last 3 letters to the desired CWA in terms of “wfoxxx” (excluding SJU, PPG, or GUM, only regional data available) State: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to the state’s abbreviation Regional: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to either of the following… Caribbean → current_caribbean_text Pacific Islands→current_usapi_text Ex; southeast → current_southeast_text Ex; midwest → current_midwest_text Ex; high plains → current_high_planes_text Ex; south → current_south_text pdf National (including HI, AK, and PR): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm.png USAPI and Virgin Islands: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm_pg2.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Southeast OK, East TX, Southwest AR, and North LA 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Drier than normal conditions in November through the first half of December has resulted in a one category degradation in drought across portions of Lower East Texas, extreme Northern Louisiana, and Southcentral Arkansas. Little change in drought has been noted over Lower East Texas and much of North Louisiana since mid-November. Feel free to use other timescales if they tell a better story, or hide this slide if there’s no notable changes in your region. 4 weeks is a good default if you’re producing this product ~once per month as required by the directive. 1-Week Monitor Class Change (replace CHS with your WFO ID): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_1W.png Comparison of current drought monitor with drought monitor from 4 weeks ago for a desired WFO station: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_4W.png Changing date: Replace where it says “current” twice with the date in terms of “YYYYMMDD” Ex; July 5th, 2022 → 20220705 Precipitation In the last 30 days (since mid-November), rainfall amounts of 0.50-3.00 inches have fallen across the region, with isolated higher amounts in excess of 4 inches observed across the Northern sections of Southwest AR and Central LA. Below to much below normal rainfall (less than half of the monthly average) fell across East TX, Northwest and extreme Northern LA, Southcentral AR, and portions of extreme Southeast OK. 30 Day Precipitation Accumulations (Inches) 30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation If longer-term drought is dominating in your region, you can use longer-timescale imagery to support that message. All data can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?maps=ACISClimateMaps If you prefer a higher resolution precip source such as AHPS (https://water.weather.gov/precip/), that’s also okay but will have to be added manually each time. If little to no imagery is available for your area (i.e. USAPI) you may consider a data table. Some USAPI precipitation imagery available here:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202303#regional-usapi and here: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update Pacific Island Climate Update for ENSO: Monthly Reports, find the link to the latest PDF on this site: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update and consider linking to it here if it’s not too out of date MSWEP: https://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/ may be another option. Other options: Precipitation Station Data from USGS: Stations in each State: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/al/nwis/current/?type=precip&group_key=NONE To change state, alter link where it says “/al/” and change to desired state’s abbreviation. Homepage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis Precipitation Reports for Basins from WCC Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BPrecip_8_2022.pdf Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Imagery from the High Plains Regional Climate Center Temperature December thus far has followed suit with November, October, and September with above normal temperatures observed across the region. . December average temperatures (through the 14th) have ranged 2-4 degrees above normal areawide. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Additional deterioration of creeks, streams, and bayous have been observed across much of Lower East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southcentral Arkansas, which did see some improvement during the early to mid Fall Months. Many others across WestCentral and Northcentral Louisiana remain very low or completely dry. However, area lakes and reservoirs remain near or slightly below normal pool stage, with the exception of Deep East Texas and North Louisiana, which remain some 3-7 feet below normal pool stage. These include Martin Lake, Sam Rayburn Lake, and Toledo Bend Reservoir. Agricultural Impacts A widespread freeze in early November and the 2nd week of December has resulted in area pastures going dormant. With producers getting one or NO cutting of hay this summer, supplemental feeding of cattle continues across North LA and East TX. Stock ponds remain very low or completely dry across much of North LA. Many producers have been unable to prep for fall planting. Fire Hazard Impacts A low to moderate fire danger remains across much of the Four State Region, with the greatest potential impacts over Lower East TX south of I-20, North LA, and Southcentral AR given the dry fuels in place. These drought stressed fuels remain conducive for fire initiation and spread. Other Impacts In addition to vegetation, numerous trees have died or lost significant foliage due to inadequate deep soil moisture. Mitigation Actions Smaller communities have enacted water restrictions due to excessive use or lower than normal well/aquifer levels. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. You may also link in the slide to your state’s USDM State Impact page: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/StateImpacts.aspx Also can optionally include any mitigation actions being taken, i.e. local water use restrictions. If none known, perhaps refer users to their local municipalities for more info. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid MM DD YYYY For western states, snow water information A table with current reservoir & lake levels/storage Groundwater info Soil moisture (can also be included in agricultural impacts section) Streamflow data from USGS https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/ - This can be set to auto-update for a single timescale (7 day avg streamflow is often a good option, all you’d need to do is change the ‘tx’ at the end of the link in the app to your state ID in lower case) Note: in most cases, it’s preferred to USE THE HUC MAPS PLEASE! If you’re getting the link from the waterwatch site, once you’ve generated the image you want to insert, right click and select “copy image link”, don’t use the site url itself because the script won’t recognize it. HYDROLOGICAL STATUS (Be sure to mention the source of the impact that’s being cited) Streamflow USGS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Geography Availability: United States State: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Use drop down menu to change state on website (excluding Pacific Islands) Pacific Islands: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/gu/nwis/rt Water-Resources Region Date Real-Time (To access any of the time series below, hover cursor over “Current Streamflow” on the left side of the website. Other time scales not available for Pacific Islands) Yesterday 7-Day 14-Day 28-Day Month Homepage: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=ww Soil Moisture Drought.gov: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture Geography Availability: CONUS National Date Daily Homepage: https://www.drought.gov/ Groundwater USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=gw&group_key=state_cd Geography: Availability: United States Use drop-down menu called “Geographic Area” to access area desired. Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ Reservoir and Lake Levels USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=lake&group_key=state_cd Geography Availability: United States Stations separated by state Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ WCC Reservoir Storage: Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BRes_8_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date: Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ SnowPack WCC Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BSnow_6_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted Homepage https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Left Image: Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile for Dec. 13th from CPC; Right Image: Crop Moisture Index for Dec. 9th from CPC. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains much below normal across the Lower Toledo Bend Country into much of North LA. Near normal soil moisture exists elsewhere across Northeast TX, Southeast OK, and much of Southwest AR. National resources: NASS crop progress reports: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Other.aspx Percentage of various crops affected by drought: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Home.aspx table: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2 Regional resource for the midwest: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/U2U/ Fire Hazard Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Latest TX Burn Ban map available here. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. NICC outlook maps are set to auto-update. New maps are produced on the first weekday of each month (see direct links below) Can also include Burn Ban info here If your area or state has other parameters available (i.e KBDI, ERC, etc) you can add these as well. 1-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png 2-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month2_outlook.png 3-Month:https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month3_outlook.png 4-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month4_outlook.png Homepage: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks Imagery Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Valid Thursday, December 14 to Thursday, December 21 Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Near normal temperatures are expected this weekend through at least midweek next week, although widespread wetting rains will occur Friday evening through Saturday morning with the passage of a strong upper level disturbance. Widespread rainfall amounts of 0.50-1.00+ inches are possible Friday evening through Saturday morning. Dry conditions are expected for the remainder of the weekend into much of next week. Little change to minor improvement to drought conditions are possible by early next week. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. You can reference the CPC week 2 temperature and precipitation outlooks for your area to support the message but please keep this slide to just the one image. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Unfortunately, above normal probabilities exist for our region to see above normal temperatures (on average) throughout December. Slightly above normal probabilities exist for seeing above normal rainfall areawide through the end of December. Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released November 30, 2023 - Valid through December 2023 Drought conditions are expected to persist throughout December across portions of Deep East TX, much of North LA, and Southcentral AR. However, some slight improvement to drought may occur through the end of the month across Lower East TX and extreme Northwest LA. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.