Drought Information Statement for North Louisiana, East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Extreme Southeast Oklahoma Valid November 3, 2023 Issued By: NWS Shreveport Contact Information: sr-shv.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by early December 2023 if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/shv/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, East TX, and North LA Abundant Rains During October Have Eliminated Drought across Northeast Texas, extreme Southeast Oklahoma, and Southwest Arkansas. Drought Conditions Have Improved across Lower East Texas and extreme Northwest Louisiana, but Severe to Exceptional Drought Continues across portions of Deep East Texas and Northcentral Louisiana. Drought Intensity and Extent D4 (Exceptional Drought): Portions of Central LA D3 (Extreme Drought): Sabine County TX and Northcentral LA D2 (Severe Drought): Panola, Shelby, and San Augustine County TX and portions of North LA D1 (Moderate Drought): Lower East TX and extreme Northwest LA D0: (Abnormally Dry): East TX (along the I-20 corridor) and portions of extreme Northwest LA Recent Change in Drought Intensity 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. A wet October across East Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, Southwest Arkansas, and portions of extreme Northwest Louisiana has resulted in considerable improvement to drought conditions over the last month. Little change to even degradation of drought to Extreme and Exceptional has been observed across much of North Louisiana and Union County Arkansas. Precipitation Last 30 days Widespread rainfall of 4-10+ inches fell across much of East TX, Southeast OK, Southwest AR, and extreme Northwest LA during October (in the left image). Monthly amounts of 0.25-2.00 inches were observed farther east across much of North and Northeast LA. Much above normal rainfall (2-3 times the monthly averages) fell along the I-30 corridor of Northeast TX and Southwest AR (in the right image). Monthly rainfall amounts only averaged 10-25% of normal across much of Northcentral LA. Temperature After above normal temperatures were observed during September, October followed suit with the continuation of above normal temperatures across much of the region. October average temperatures averaged 1-3 degrees above normal areawide. Summary of Impacts Hydrologic Impacts Some recovery of creeks, streams, and bayous have been observed across much of Lower East TX, but many others across WestCentral and Northcentral Louisiana remain very low or completely dry. However, area lakes and reservoirs remain near or slightly below normal pool stage. Agricultural Impacts The recent rainfall has promoted some greenup of area pastures, but the widespread freeze observed on Nov. 1st-2nd has ended the growing season. With producers getting one or NO cutting of hay this summer, supplemental feeding of cattle continues across North LA and East TX. Stock ponds remain very low or completely dry across much of North LA. Many producers have been unable to prep for fall planting. Fire Hazard Impacts A low to moderate fire danger remains across much of the Four State Region, with the greatest potential impacts over Sabine County TX into much of North LA given the dry fuels in place. These drought stressed fuels remain conducive for fire initiation and spread. Other Impacts In addition to vegetation, numerous trees have died or lost significant foliage due to inadequate deep soil moisture. Mitigation Actions Smaller communities have enacted water restrictions due to excessive use or lower than normal well/aquifer levels. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture remains much below normal across the Lower Toledo Bend Country into Northcentral Louisiana. Near to above normal soil moisture exists elsewhere across Northeast TX, Southeast OK, Southwest AR, and extreme Northwest LA. Seven Day Precipitation Forecast A warming trend and continued dry conditions will persist through at least midweek, before an approaching weak cold front and associated upper level disturbance result in scattered showers and a few thunderstorms across much of the region late next week. Rainfall amounts of 0.25-0.75 inches will be possible areawide Thursday, November 9th through Friday, November 10th. Minor improvement to drought conditions will be possible late next week. Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Unfortunately, slightly above normal probabilities exist for our region to see above normal temperatures (on average) during November. There is no skill level for determining whether we will see above normal, near normal, or below normal rainfall during November across our region. Drought Outlook Drought conditions are expected to persist throughout November across portions of Deep East TX, much of North LA, and Southcentral AR. Some improvement to the drought is anticipated across much of Lower East TX, extreme Northwest LA, and portions of extreme Southern AR during November, with the effects of the ongoing El Niño this winter expected to provide additional drought improvement .