Drought Information Statement for North Louisiana, East Texas, Southwest Arkansas, and Extreme Southeast Oklahoma Valid March 8th, 2024 Issued By: NWS Shreveport Contact Information: sr-shv.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated by early April 2024 unless drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/shv/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Webmaster email or public phone line likely preferred, but individuals may choose to include their contact information directly. 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Southeast OK, Southwest AR, East TX, and North LA An extended period of rainfall across all of the Four State Region through much of January and the first 11 days of February has led to Drought Removal across East Texas, much of Southwest Arkansas, and North Louisiana. However, a three week period of above normal temperatures and little rainfall has led to the redevelopment of Abnormally Dry conditions across portions of extreme Northeast Texas, Southeast Oklahoma, and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas. Moderate Drought to Abnormally Dry conditions continue though across Central and Northeast Louisiana. Drought Intensity and Extent D1 (Moderate Drought): Central LA D0: (Abnormally Dry): Central and Northeast LA, extreme Northeast TX, Southeast OK, and adjacent sections of Southwest AR. Geography Availability: United States WFO: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/current/current_wfoabq_text.png Where it says “wfoabq” change the last 3 letters to the desired CWA in terms of “wfoxxx” (excluding SJU, PPG, or GUM, only regional data available) State: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to the state’s abbreviation Regional: Replace where it says “wfoabq” change to either of the following… Caribbean → current_caribbean_text Pacific Islands→current_usapi_text Ex; southeast → current_southeast_text Ex; midwest → current_midwest_text Ex; high plains → current_high_planes_text Ex; south → current_south_text pdf National (including HI, AK, and PR): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm.png USAPI and Virgin Islands: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/png/20220823/20220823_usdm_pg2.png Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to the latest 4-week change map for Southeast OK, East TX, Southwest AR, and North LA 4 Week Drought Monitor Class Change. Near to slightly above normal rainfall fell since early February across portions of Deep East Texas, Northwest and Northcentral Louisiana. Thus, a 1-2 category improvement in drought has been observed across Northcentral Louisiana and Sabine County Texas. Below normal rainfall and above normal temperatures during the last month over McCurtain County Oklahoma and adjacent sections of Southwest Arkansas has led to the reintroduction of Abnormally Dry conditions for this area. Feel free to use other timescales if they tell a better story, or hide this slide if there’s no notable changes in your region. 4 weeks is a good default if you’re producing this product ~once per month as required by the directive. 1-Week Monitor Class Change (replace CHS with your WFO ID): https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_1W.png Comparison of current drought monitor with drought monitor from 4 weeks ago for a desired WFO station: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/data/chng/png/current/current_wfoCHS_chng_4W.png Changing date: Replace where it says “current” twice with the date in terms of “YYYYMMDD” Ex; July 5th, 2022 → 20220705 Precipitation Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-4 inches fell areawide since early February, with isolated higher amounts in excess of 5 inches observed across portions of Deep East Texas, Northwest and Northcentral Louisiana. These higher totals are very near or slightly above normal, with below normal rainfall observed elsewhere across the region. 30 Day Precipitation Accumulations (Inches) 30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation If longer-term drought is dominating in your region, you can use longer-timescale imagery to support that message. All data can be found at https://hprcc.unl.edu/maps.php?maps=ACISClimateMaps If you prefer a higher resolution precip source such as AHPS (https://water.weather.gov/precip/), that’s also okay but will have to be added manually each time. If little to no imagery is available for your area (i.e. USAPI) you may consider a data table. Some USAPI precipitation imagery available here:https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/monthly-report/drought/202303#regional-usapi and here: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update Pacific Island Climate Update for ENSO: Monthly Reports, find the link to the latest PDF on this site: https://niwa.co.nz/climate/island-climate-update and consider linking to it here if it’s not too out of date MSWEP: https://www.gloh2o.org/mswep/ may be another option. Other options: Precipitation Station Data from USGS: Stations in each State: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/al/nwis/current/?type=precip&group_key=NONE To change state, alter link where it says “/al/” and change to desired state’s abbreviation. Homepage: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis Precipitation Reports for Basins from WCC Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BPrecip_8_2022.pdf Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Imagery from the High Plains Regional Climate Center Temperature After observing much above normal and near record monthly temperatures across the region during February, this trend has continued through the first week of March, with average temperatures ranging from 5-9+ degrees below normal areawide. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Despite the dry conditions over the last month, near normal streamflow continue across much of the area, although below normal streamflow has developed across the smaller creeks and bayous in Northcentral Louisiana. Agricultural Impacts Area pastures remain mostly dormant in wake of widespread freezes this winter. Supplemental feeding of cattle continues across North Louisiana and East Texas. The majority of stock ponds across Deep East Texas and North Louisiana have been recharged in wake of the much above normal rainfall observed since January. 10-40 cm and 40-100 cm soil moisture is near normal across Lower East Texas, North Louisiana, and Southcentral Arkansas, but some dryness has developed across Northeast Texas north of I-20, as well as Southeast Oklahoma and much of Southwest Arkansas. Fire Hazard Impacts The recent heavy rainfall generally along and north of Interstate 20 in East TX and North Louisiana has helped reduce the extent of fuel dryness across these areas. Thus, low fire danger exists across much of these areas, with a moderate fire danger present across Lower East Texas and the southern sections of Northcentral Louisiana. Mitigation Actions Smaller communities have enacted water restrictions due to excessive use or lower than normal well/aquifer levels. Please refer to your municipality and/or water provider for mitigation information. You may also link in the slide to your state’s USDM State Impact page: https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/DmData/StateImpacts.aspx Also can optionally include any mitigation actions being taken, i.e. local water use restrictions. If none known, perhaps refer users to their local municipalities for more info. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Image Caption: USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map valid MM DD YYYY For western states, snow water information A table with current reservoir & lake levels/storage Groundwater info Soil moisture (can also be included in agricultural impacts section) Streamflow data from USGS https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/ - This can be set to auto-update for a single timescale (7 day avg streamflow is often a good option, all you’d need to do is change the ‘tx’ at the end of the link in the app to your state ID in lower case) Note: in most cases, it’s preferred to USE THE HUC MAPS PLEASE! If you’re getting the link from the waterwatch site, once you’ve generated the image you want to insert, right click and select “copy image link”, don’t use the site url itself because the script won’t recognize it. HYDROLOGICAL STATUS (Be sure to mention the source of the impact that’s being cited) Streamflow USGS: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Geography Availability: United States State: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/?m=real&r=nj Use drop down menu to change state on website (excluding Pacific Islands) Pacific Islands: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/gu/nwis/rt Water-Resources Region Date Real-Time (To access any of the time series below, hover cursor over “Current Streamflow” on the left side of the website. Other time scales not available for Pacific Islands) Yesterday 7-Day 14-Day 28-Day Month Homepage: https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=ww Soil Moisture Drought.gov: https://www.drought.gov/topics/soil-moisture Geography Availability: CONUS National Date Daily Homepage: https://www.drought.gov/ Groundwater USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=gw&group_key=state_cd Geography: Availability: United States Use drop-down menu called “Geographic Area” to access area desired. Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ Reservoir and Lake Levels USGS: https://waterdata.usgs.gov/nwis/current/?type=lake&group_key=state_cd Geography Availability: United States Stations separated by state Date Real-Time Homepage: https://www.usgs.gov/ WCC Reservoir Storage: Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BRes_8_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date: Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted. Homepage: https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ SnowPack WCC Geography Availability: SNOTEL and COOP stations for each state in the west including Alaska. State: https://www.wcc.nrcs.usda.gov/ftpref/support/water/SummaryReports/AZ/BSnow_6_2022.pdf? Where it says “AZ” change to desired state abbreviation to other states such as AK, CA, CO, ID, MT, NV, NM, OR, UT, WA, and WY. Date Monthly Replace where it says “Precip_8_2022” and change the “8” to the desired month of year and “2022” to the year wanted Homepage https://www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/wcc/home/snowClimateMonitoring/snowpack/basinDataReports/ Left Image: Soil Moisture Ranking Percentile for Mar. 6th from CPC; Right Image: Crop Moisture Index Ending Mar. 2nd from CPC. Agricultural Impacts Soil moisture has returned to near normal over most areas, although some deeper soil moisture deficits remain across portions of Central and Northeast Louisiana. National resources: NASS crop progress reports: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Other.aspx Percentage of various crops affected by drought: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Home.aspx table: https://agindrought.unl.edu/Table.aspx?2 Regional resource for the midwest: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/U2U/ Fire Hazard Impacts Summarize conditions/impacts here Latest TX Burn Ban map available here. Image Caption: Significant Wildland Fire Potential Monthly Outlook for August 2023 Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. NICC outlook maps are set to auto-update. New maps are produced on the first weekday of each month (see direct links below) Can also include Burn Ban info here If your area or state has other parameters available (i.e KBDI, ERC, etc) you can add these as well. 1-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month1_outlook.png 2-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month2_outlook.png 3-Month:https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month3_outlook.png 4-Month: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/month4_outlook.png Homepage: https://www.nifc.gov/nicc/predictive-services/outlooks Imagery Below: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast Valid Friday, March 8th to Friday, March 15th Seven Day Precipitation Forecast Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected to affect areas generally along and north of I-20 in East TX, Southeast OK, Southwest AR, and North LA Friday night, along and behind a strong cold front that will sweep through the region through Saturday morning. Below normal temperatures are expected this weekend, before a gradual warming trend commences Monday, March 11th through much of next week. The potential for additional showers and thunderstorms appear to increase late Thursday into Friday, March 14th-15th. Widespread rainfall amounts of 1.50-2.00+ inches are possible through Friday night, March 15th areawide. Little to no improvement to drought is expected over the next week and longer. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. Summarize conditions and impacts here Image Caption: Days 8 to 14 U.S. Hazards Outlook Valid Month DD to DD. You can reference the CPC week 2 temperature and precipitation outlooks for your area to support the message but please keep this slide to just the one image. Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Monthly Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM YYYY Image Captions: Left - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Temperature Outlook. Right - Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Precipitation Outlook. Valid MM to MM YYYY Long-Range Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Above normal probabilities exist for above normal temperatures areawide during March. Slightly above normal probabilities exist for seeing above normal rainfall through March over North LA and portions of Deep East TX. No skill level exists elsewhere across East TX, Southeast OK, and Southwest AR, with “Equal Chance” probabilities for seeing below normal, near normal, or above normal rainfall through March. Make sure you edit the caption box to match the image. There are multiple versions of the Monthly outlooks here because it is issued once on the 3rd thursday of each month and then updated on the final day of each month. Monthly Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus07.html Seasonal Discussion: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/fxus05.html USAPI: Can consider including imagery from NMME, C3S, BOM and NIWA if appropriate and useful, but can use this on slide 13 to support drought outlook message since there’s no official CPC outlook for your region. Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released MM DD, YYYY valid for MM-MM YYYY Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Released February 29, 2024 - Valid through March 2024 The potential exists for additional drought improvement and possibly drought removal by the end of March across Central LA. Links to the latest: Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Both the Monthly and the Seasonal Drought Outlook images will auto-populate, but please only include one on the slide, moving the other off to the right. Use whichever image tells the best story for your area of interest. Be sure to use the correct caption box and edit the released and valid dates as well. You can and should reference the temperature and precipitation outlooks to support the message, but please keep this slide to 1 image. Discussions: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/mdo_summary.php https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/expert_assessment/sdo_summary.php For USAPI, can consider using NMME imagery for temperature and/or precipitation to help message potential drought improvement/degradation/amelioration.