Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid November 21, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 5, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the Latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Drought Continues to Decrease across the Ozarks Region. Drought Intensity and Extent D1 (Moderate Drought): All of Newton, McDonald, Barry, Stone, Lawrence, Polk, Hickory, and Benton counties. Then, portions of St. Clair, Morgan, Miller, Camden, Dallas, Laclede, Cedar, Dade, Jasper, Cherokee, Greene, Christian, and Taney counties. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Portions of some previously mentioned D1 areas, in addition to all of Bourbon, Crawford, Vernon, and Barton counties. Required Slide https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-u.s.-drought-monitor-lower-midwest.png Drought Monitor - Last Week vs. This Week Link to the Latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Required Slide Last Week (Nov 12) Latest (Nov 19) Update these images with the content creator https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html Observed Precipitation in Last 7 Days Additional rounds of rain over the weekend brought widespread accumulations of 0.5-2” of rain, with the greatest totals along and west of I-49. These totals have contributed to the gradual improvement of drought conditions across southwest Missouri. https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2short.php?id=415785 State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways D2 Drought has been eliminated in all areas previously under D2 conditions. Eastward extent of all drought conditions decreased again. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought further improved across much of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Portions of South-Central Missouri continue to be in “No Drought” thanks to copious amounts of recent rainfall. Measured Rainfall 30 Day Precipitation Main Takeaways Multiple rounds of rainfall this month has significantly contributed significantly to above normal 30-day precipitation. Many areas are at 200% or greater of the 30-day normal precipitation. Required Slide https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-precipitation-accumulations-(inches)-lower-midwest.png (left) and https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-30-day-percent-of-normal-precipitation-lower-midwest.png (right) 120-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation 120 Day Precipitation Main Takeaways However, the recent heavy rainfall has only made a dent in sub-seasonal precipitation deficits across the region. Only the eastern Ozarks in south-central Missouri have seen above normal precipitation over the last four months. Areas in D1 and D2 drought conditions farther west remain near normal to below normal for four-month average precipitation values. https://storage.googleapis.com/noaa-nidis-drought-gov-data/current-conditions/nws-dgt-images/nws-120-day-percent-of-normal-precipitation-lower-midwest.png Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows are at near-normal to above-normal in southeast Kansas and southwestern Missouri. Many south-central and central Missouri basins and tributaries continue to have much above normal or high streamflows in the wake of historic river flooding after the recent heavy precipitation in these areas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas and across areas along and west of Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported, some estimates show extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing very little to no feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported a significant increase in grass fires and fire starts. Some area counties and municipalities have implemented burn bans due to dry conditions. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has set up a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Significant portions of the Missouri Ozarks and and far SE Kansas recorded as many as 31 days without measurable rainfall. For some locations this extended period was in the Top 5 longest stretches of no rainfall on record. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks can be Found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways A pattern change looks to occur towards the end of November and beginning of December bringing a 50-60% chance for below normal temperatures. Precipitation looks to be near normal for this timeframe. December Monthly Outlooks The Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks can be Found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is slightly leaning toward above-normal temperatures for December in southern Missouri. The precipitation outlook is solidly within equal chances of below or above normal precipitation. Therefore, near normal precipitation is forecast for December. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Outlook is somewhat similar to the December outlook. Forecast very slightly favors above average temperatures and near average precipitation Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways The current drought across southwest Missouri is forecast to be removed entirely by the end of the winter season. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety