Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid November 7, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated December 5, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the Latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Drought Generally Decreases across the Ozarks Region. Drought Intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of McDonald, Newton, Jasper, Barton, Barry, Stone, Taney, Christian, Douglas, Webster, Greene, Dade, Morgan, Miller, Maries, Camden, Pulaski, Laclede, Dallas, St. Clair, Benton, Polk, Hickory, and Cedar counties in Missouri, as well as portions of Cherokee, Crawford Counties in Kansas. D1 (Moderate Drought): Portions of previously mentioned D2 areas, in addition to portions of Ozark, Phelps, and Vernon Counties in Missouri and Bourbon County in Kansas. D0: (Abnormally Dry): Portions of some previously mentioned D1 areas, as well as portions of Dent County in Missouri. Required Slide Drought Monitor - Last Week vs. This Week Link to the Latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Required Slide Last Week (Oct 29) Latest (Nov 5) Update these images with the content creator https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html Observed Precipitation in Last 7 Days Several rounds of heavy rain between November 2 and November 5 brought widespread accumulations of 2-4” of rain, with a large swath of central and south-central Missouri receiving over 11-12” of rain in 48 hours. Between November 2 and November 7, there was major to record-breaking river flooding on the Gasconade, Big Piney, Jacks Fork, and Current Rivers. Flooding is generally receded in most of the eastern Ozarks, but lingering elevated river levels could remain into the early weekend. https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2short.php?id=415785 State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways D3 Drought has been eliminated in all areas previously under D3 conditions. Eastward extent of all drought conditions decreased. All rainfall through November 5 was included in the making of this update. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought improved across all of southwest Missouri and much of southeast Kansas. Drought even improved by two categories in portions of central and south-central Missouri that received over 10” of rain. Measured Rainfall 30 Day Precipitation Main Takeaways Recent heavy rainfall has significantly decreased 30 day precipitation deficit compared to normal, especially in south-central Missouri. Required Slide 120-Day Percent of Normal Precipitation 120 Day Precipitation Main Takeaways However, the recent heavy rainfall has only made a dent in sub-seasonal precipitation deficits across the region. Only the eastern Ozarks in south-central Missouri have seen above normal precipitation over the last four months. Areas in worse drought conditions farther west remain near normal to below normal for four-month average precipitation values. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows have returned to normal in southeast Kansas and western Missouri. Many south-central and central Missouri basins and tributaries have much above normal or high streamflows in the wake of historic river flooding after the recent heavy precipitation in these areas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas and across areas along and west of Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported, some estimates show extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing very little to no feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported a significant increase in grass fires and fire starts. Some area counties and municipalities have implemented burn bans due to dry conditions. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has set up a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Significant portions of the Missouri Ozarks and and far SE Kansas recorded as many as 31 days without measurable rainfall. For some locations this extended period was in the Top 5 longest stretches of no rainfall on record. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks can be Found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above-average temperatures look to continue into at least mid-November. Precipitation slightly leans toward an above-average outlook into mid-November. October Monthly Outlooks The Latest Monthly and Seasonal Outlooks can be Found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is leaning toward above-normal temperatures for November. The precipitation outlook favors an above-normal amount of rainfall in November, which is partially due to a strong bias from the recent heavy rainfall event during the first week of November. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Outlooks very slightly favor above average temperatures and near average precipitation Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Drought should improve or be removed altogether in most of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety