Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid October 29, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 7, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Required Slide Last Week (Oct 22) Latest (Oct 29) https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Continued expansion of drought conditions across the area Impacts continue to expand indicated via Drought Impacts Reporter Rainfall from October 30th and forecast rainfall through November 5th is not included in the October 29th Drought Monitor Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Expansion of drought conditions across the area continued Measured Rainfall Precipitation Main Takeaways Nearly all areas saw less than average rain…with some receiving less than 25% of average over the past month through Oct 29th. Rainfall that occurred on Oct 30th and forecast rainfall through Nov 5th is not included Required Slide Supplemental forecast rainfall probabilities - Nov 2nd through Nov 5th Precipitation Main Takeaways Model probabilistic forecasts for precipitation across the Ozarks and SE Kansas indicate a 60-95% chance of 2” or more of rain through the period and from 40-60% chance for 4” or more (mainly along and west of Highway 65) . The greatest potential for impactful rainfall will be across SW Missouri mainly along and west of Highway 65. Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows over the past week over Southeast Kansas into western Missouri are <10% to 24% of normal. Sufficient rain and spring-fed streams over much of Missouri remained at 25-75% of normal flow. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Main Takeaways CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK: The NICC removed the Ozarks from above normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential for October. However, drought expansion continues for parts of the Ozarks. Recent and expected rainfall over the next 7 days is expected to significantly limit wildfire potential across the Ozarks. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas and across areas along and west of Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported, some estimates show extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing very little to no feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported a significant increase in grass fires and fire starts. Some area counties and municipalities have implemented burn bans due to dry conditions. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has set up a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Significant portions of the Missouri Ozarks and and far SE Kansas recorded as many as 31 days without measurable rainfall. For some locations this extended period was in the Top 5 longest stretches of no rainfall on record. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above average temperatures look to continue into at least early to mid-November. Precipitation slightly favors an above average outlook across far western Missouri October Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is leaning toward a 33-40% chance for above normal temperatures for October. The precipitation outlook favors a continued below normal amount of rainfall in October, with increased chances from last outlook. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Outlooks very slightly favor above average temperatures and near average precipitation Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Drought continues to slowly expand across the area Locations that did not receive rainfall in the past 30-90 days have seen quick and significant expansion of drought conditions. Rainfall during the Oct 30th through Nov 5th period is expected to help limit drought expansion. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety