Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid October 10, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated October 17, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Conditions worsened to Extreme (D3) drought over parts of far southwest Missouri and far southeast Kansas. Severe (D2) drought slightly expanded over parts of southwestern Missouri and far southeast Kansas with the Moderate (D1) drought persisting for portions of central MO as well. Drought Intensity and Extent D3 (Extreme Drought): Portions of Barry, Stone, Lawrence, and Jasper along with McDonald and Newton counties in southwest MO and portions of Cherokee county in southeast Kansas D2 (Severe Drought): Portions of Morgan, Benton, Hickory, St Clair, Cedar, Polk, Dallas, Taney, Webster, Greene, Douglas, Dade, Barton, Barry, Jasper, Stone, and Vernon along with Christian county in western MO and parts of Cherokee, Crawford, and Bourbon counties in southeast Kansas. D1 (Moderate Drought): The remaining portions of Crawford and Bourbon counties in southeast Kansas. In southwest Missouri, all or portions of Vernon, Barton, St. Clair, Cedar, Dade, Benton, Hickory, Polk, Greene, Taney, Douglas, Webster, Dallas, Laclede, Morgan, and Miller counties. Required Slide https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Conditions worsened to Extreme (D3) drought for parts of southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas. Severe (D2) Drought persisted for some and worsened for others over western Missouri into far southeast Kansas. Moderate (D1) drought remained across portions of central Missouri. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought conditions have continued to degrade the past week over western and south-central Missouri. Southeast Kansas has also seen slight increases in drought. Portions of Missouri saw no change over the past week, but are still in Moderate (D1) to Severe (D2) Drought. Precipitation Main Takeaways Many areas west of Highway 65 into southeast Kansas have received less than 2 inches of rain in the past 30 days, with portions seeing less than a half inch of rain. Areas east of Highway 65 received widespread 1-4” and even some pockets of 4-6” inches. Nearly all areas saw less than average rain, with some receiving less than 25% of normal over the past month. Required Slide Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows over the past week over Southeast Kansas into western Missouri have as little as less than 10% of normal over the Spring River and parts of the Neosho and Elk river basins, with some portions having 10-24% of normal. Sufficient rain and spring fed streams over much of Missouri remained at 25-75% of normal flow. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Main Takeaways Although southwest Missouri and southeast Kansas are not highlighted in above normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential for October, portions of the Ozarks may still experience slightly increased risk of wildland fire potential. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas to along Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported with some estimating extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing little to no feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported widespread browning of vegetation and a recent increase in grass fires. Other Impacts There are no additional known impacts at this time. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways Crop moistures over southeast Kansas into western Missouri were slightly dry, worsening in terms of the percentile ranking, with the Soil Moisture Ranking as low as below the 1st percentile. South central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks continued to be slightly dry to wet. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures look to continue into at least mid to late October. A lean to below normal precipitation looks to continue. October Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is trending toward equal chances for above, below and average temperatures for the rest of October. The precipitation outlook is leaning toward a 40-50% chance for below normal precipitation. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways After temperatures trended toward equal chances for above/below/average in October, the longer term outlook for November and December slightly favors above average temperatures. The precipitation outlook in October favors below average chances, then November and December offers equal chances. Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Monthly drought (not shown) through the the end of the year favors a continued to potentially worsening drought for southeast Kansas into at least western Missouri. Impacts over portions of central through south central Missouri may be more limited. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety