Drought Information Statement for the Missouri Ozarks Valid October 3, 2024 Issued By: WFO Springfield, MO Contact Information: contact.sgf@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 7, 2024 or sooner if drought conditions change significantly. Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/sgf/SGFDroughtMonitor for additional information. Required Slide 1 U.S. Drought Monitor Link to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor for Lower Midwest Areas of Severe (D2) drought over far southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri expanded eastward. Moderate (D1) mainly persisted, also expanding slightly eastward in southwest Missouri. Drought Intensity and Extent D2 (Severe Drought): All of McDonald, Barry, Newton, Lawrence, and Jasper counties. Portions of St. Clair, Hickory, Cedar, and Polk counties along with parts of Taney, Christian, Greene, Dade, and Barton counties in western MO. All of Cherokee and part of Crawford counties in southeast Kansas. D1 (Moderate Drought): All of Vernon county, remaining portions of Crawford, Barton, Dade, Cedar, St. Clair, Hickory, and Christian counties, and part of Taney, Greene, Polk, Dallas, Benton, Morgan, Camden, Miller, Webster, and Douglas counties. Required Slide https://intra.crh.noaa.gov/gis/b2.html State Drought Monitor Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Severe (D2) Drought persisted and expanded into areas of south-central Missouri Moderate (D1) drought also spread into portions of south-central Missouri and remained in place elsewhere. Recent Change in Drought Intensity Link to Recent Change Maps Main Takeaways Drought conditions have continued to degrade the past week over south-central Missouri Southeast Kansas has also seen slight increases in drought. Areas across west Missouri saw no change over the past month, but are still in Severe (D2) Drought. Precipitation Main Takeaways Many areas west of Highway 65 into southeast Kansas have received less than 2 inches of rain in the past 30 days…with portions seeing less than a half inch of rain. Areas east of Highway 65 received widespread 1-4”…and even some pockets of 4-6” inches. Nearly all areas saw less than normal rain…with some receiving less than 25% of normal over the past month. Required Slide Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts Main Takeaways Streamflows over the past week over Southeast Kansas into western Missouri have have slightly improved, but still have as little as 10-24% of normal for Spring River and parts of the Neosho and Elk river basins. Sufficient rain and spring-fed streams over much of Missouri remained at 25-75% of normal flow. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Kansas. Image Caption: : USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC map - Missouri. https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?m=pa07d_nwc&r=ks&w=map https://waterwatch.usgs.gov/index.php?id=pa07d&sid=w__map%7Cm__pa07d_nwc&r=mo Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. Main Takeaways CHANGE FROM LAST WEEK: The NICC removed us from above normal Significant Wildland Fire Potential for October. However, with potential drought expansion, portions of the Ozarks may still experience slightly increased risk of wildland fire potential. Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter Hydrologic Impacts Significant rainfall deficients were noted over southeast Kansas to along Highway 65 in Missouri. The Marmaton and Spring Rivers as well as most smaller creeks including some east of Highway 65 were in a low water threshold. Agricultural Impacts Fall plantings have been impacted with wilting and bug infestation reported with some estimating extreme degree of loss to near crop failure. Pastures are providing very little to no feed, requiring supplemental feeding in some regions. Fire Hazard Impacts Local Fire Chiefs have reported widespread browning of vegetation and a recent increase in grass fires and fire starts. Other Impacts There are no additional known impacts at this time. Mitigation actions The Missouri Department of Agriculture has an AgriStress Helpline at 833-897-2474. The University of Missouri Extension Office has set up a Psychological Service Clinic to aid farmers and ranchers. More information is available at muext.us/PSCFarmRanch. Required Slide Agricultural Impacts Main Takeaways Crop moistures over southeast Kansas into western Missouri were around normal for this time of year, but slightly worsened in terms of the percentile ranking…with the Soil Moisture Ranking as low as below the 5th percentile. South central Missouri into the eastern Ozarks continued to be slightly dry to favorably moist. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Soilmst_Monitoring/Figures/daily/curr.w.rank.daily.gif https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/regional_monitoring/cmi.gif 8 to 14 Day Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures look to continue into at least mid-October. Precipitation favors a below normal outlook October Monthly Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways The temperature pattern is leaning toward a 33-40% chance for above normal temperatures for October. The precipitation outlook favors a continued below normal amount of rainfall in October, with increased chances from last outlook. Seasonal Outlooks The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage Main Takeaways After temperatures trended toward equal chances for above/below/normal in October, the longer term outlook for November and December slightly favors above normal temperatures. The precipitation outlook in October favors below normal chances, then November and December offers equal chances. Drought Outlook Climate Prediction Center Monthly Drought Outlook | Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Main Takeaways Monthly drought (not shown) through the the end of the year favors a continued to potentially worsening drought for southeast Kansas into at least western Missouri. Impacts over central through south central may be more limited. Required Slide Additional Drought Resources For Additional Information NWS Springfield Webpage | IDSS Point Forecasts NWS Springfield Drought Monitor Resources Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook Missouri Drought Monitor | Kansas Drought Monitor Drought Monitor Archive CPC Drought Information National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) National Drought Mitigation Center (NDMC) Missouri USGS Streamflows | Kansas USGS Streamflows Drought Safety