Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid October 31, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 6, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Slight degradation in northeast KY National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): No change D3 (Extreme Drought): No change D2 (Severe Drought): No change D1 (Moderate Drought): No change D0: (Abnormally Dry): Slight expansion in northeast KY National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT October 31, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT October 31, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: Parts of Wyoming County WV and Buchanan County VA No Change: Areas of southeast OH and WV Drought Improved: Slivers of southeast Ohio, northeast KY and WV mountains Latest 7 Rainfall and 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - 7 Day Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right -30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service ending October 31, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Dry over the past week 30 day rain surplus across southern areas has been replaced by considerably drying as Helene’s rainfall has dropped out of the 30 day time range Significant long term rainfall deficits continue across northern WV lowlands and southeast OH Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows well below normal in southeast OH and northern/western WV Water levels in residential and agricultural wells are low once again again Agricultural Impacts Near surface soil moisture is once again below normal across most areas Dry signal persists in deeper soil profiles Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger again early next week Expected to remain elevated with overall dry pattern and leaf drop over the next two weeks. Mitigation Actions Putnam PSD is reporting abnormally low reservoir levels Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid October 27, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid October 30, 2024 Main Takeaways Much below normal Muskingum, Hocking, Upper Ohio, Tygart, Little Kanawha, and upper Guyandotte basins Streamflow is typically lowest this time of year for perspective Groundwater wells remain low across central/northern locations Impacts Most reservoir lakes releases for winter drawdown delayed until mid December due to the extraordinary low summer pools Putnam PSD is reporting abnormally low reservoir levels Not low enough for any kind of restrictions at this time Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: GRACE root zone soil moisture percentile valid October 26, 2024 Right: CASMA subsoil moisture percentile valid October 26, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Much of the area is dry in the topsoil and subsoil Impacts Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid November, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid November 1, 2024 Main Takeaways Fuels are drying out once again Increasing brush fire threat early next week with warming afternoon temperatures, gusty winds, and low relative humidity Significant wildfire outlook is normal for November Impacts Expect fire danger to remain elevated at times over the next two weeks due to leaf drop and overall dry weather pattern Amplified during warm days with wind and low relative humidity Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid November 1, 2024 Next 7 days: Warm front crosses Sunday with maybe a shower in southeast OH Next frontal passage slated for next Wednesday with another round of mainly light showers No sign of rainfall that would be enough to dent the drought Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid October 31, 2024 Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures favored Near normal precipitation favored Impacts Brush fire threat remains elevated Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released October 17 , 2024 Valid October 17, 2024 - January 31, 2024 Main Takeaways Favors drought remaining but improving through January across WV lowlands and southeast OH but ends elsewhere