Drought Information Statement for southeast Ohio, northeast Kentucky, southwest Virginia, and much of West Virginia Valid October 24, 2024 Issued By: NWS Charleston, WV Contact Information: rlx.webmaster@noaa.gov This product will be updated November 1, 2024 Please see all currently available products at https://drought.gov/drought-information-statements. Please visit https://www.weather.gov/RLX/DroughtInformationStatement for previous statements. Slight degradation in McDowell County WV, otherwise no changes National Weather Service Charleston, WV 1 Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Main Takeaways D4 (Exceptional Drought): No change D3 (Extreme Drought): No change D2 (Severe Drought): No change D1 (Moderate Drought): No change D0: (Abnormally Dry): Expansion into McDowell County WV National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor valid 8am EDT October 24, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Current Drought Conditions Latest Drought Monitor Four-Week Change Image Caption: Right: U.S. Drought Monitor 4 week change valid 8am EDT October 24, 2024 Four Week Drought Monitor Class Change Drought Worsened: No Change: Areas of southeast OH and northern WV Drought Improved: Significant improvement across southwest VA, mountains of WV, northeast KY, southern half of WV Latest 7 Rainfall and 30-Day Percent of Normal Rainfall Observed Precipitation Image Caption: Left - 7 Day Precipitation Amount for Mid Atlantic Right -30 Day Percent of Normal Precipitation for Mid Atlantic Data Courtesy NWS National Water Prediction Service ending October 24, 2024 National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Some very light rain amounts across the central lowlands and northeast mountains Rainfall surplus lingers in the long term across WV Coal Fields and mountains from remnants of Helene Will drop from the 30 day tally next week Significant long term rainfall deficits continue across northern WV lowlands and southeast OH Latest 7 and 30-Day Temperature Anomaly Observed Temperature National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Max temperatures 4 to 6 degrees above normal over the last week and 1 to 3 degrees above normal over the last month Image Captions: Left - 7-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Right - 30-Day Departure from Normal Temperature for Appalachia Data Courtesy NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information Data over the past 30 days ending September 1, 2024 Summary of Impacts Links: See/submit Condition Monitoring Observer Reports (CMOR) and view the Drought Impacts Reporter National Weather Service Charleston, WV Hydrologic Impacts 7-day average streamflows well below normal in southeast OH and western WV Water levels in residential and agricultural wells may drop again absent precipitation over the next few weeks Agricultural Impacts Near surface soil moisture normal southwest VA, northeast KY, southern and eastern WV, below normal elsewhere Dry signal persists in deeper soil profiles Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Fire Hazard Impacts Fire danger increases Friday and again early next week Expected to remain elevated with overall dry pattern and leaf drop over the next two weeks. Mitigation Actions Improved impacts overall including water supply and water quality across northeast KY and southern/eastern WV Hydrologic Conditions and Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Left - USGS 7 day average streamflow HUC maps valid October 24, 2024 Right - USGS groundwater wells valid October 23, 2024 Main Takeaways Streamflows dropping once again outside of the mountains Streamflow is typically lowest this time of year Much below normal in the Hocking, Muskingum, lower Little Kanawha, and Upper Ohio basins Groundwater wells remain low many locales Impacts Most reservoir lakes releases for winter drawdown delayed until mid December due to the extraordinary low summer pools Agricultural Impacts National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: GRACE root zone soil moisture percentile valid October 17, 2024 Right: CASMA subsoil moisture percentile valid October 19, 2024 USDA Crop Progress and Condition Weekly Reports West Virginia Ohio Virginia Kentucky Main Takeaways Soil moisture near normal outside of southeast OH and lowlands of WV, though deeper profiles exhibit a lingering dry signal across most areas outside of the mountains Impacts Hay shortage remains with supplemental feeding needed for winter Fire Hazard Impacts Link to Wildfire Potential Outlooks from the National Interagency Coordination Center. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Left: Significant Wildland Fire Potential monthly outlook valid October, 2024 Right: Area fire danger class, valid October 25, 2024 Main Takeaways Fuels are drying out once again Increasing brush fire threat Friday and again early next week with warming afternoon temperatures and low relative humidity Mitigated somewhat by lack of wind Significant wildfire outlook is normal for October Impacts Expect fire danger to remain elevated at times over the next two weeks due to leaf drop and overall dry weather pattern Amplified during warm days with wind and low relative humidity Seven Day Precipitation Forecast National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Weather Prediction Center 7-day precipitation forecast valid October 24, 2024 Next 7 days: High pressure and dry weather over the next week, interrupted briefly by a moisture starved cold front Friday night After a brief chill this weekend, temperatures will return to above normal next week, though mornings will remain a bit chilly initially. Rapid Onset Drought Outlook Links to the latest Climate Prediction Center 8 to 14 day Temperature Outlook and Precipitation Outlook. National Weather Service Charleston, WV Main Takeaways Low ponds Potential for navigation issues in the weeks/months ahead on the big rivers (especially Mississippi) Impacts Recent dry weather has led to some lower 8-14 Day Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center 8-14 day temperature and precipitation outlook valid October 23, 2024 Main Takeaways Above normal temperatures favored Near normal precipitation favored Impacts Brush fire threat remains elevated Weeks 3-4 Outlook Temperature and Precipitation Outlook National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Captions: Climate Prediction Center weeks 3-4 temperature and precipitation outlook valid September 13, 2024 Main Takeaways Increased probability of above normal temperatures Increased probability of below normal precipitation Impacts Worsening drought conditions possible across many locations Seasonal (3-Month) Drought Outlook The latest monthly and seasonal outlooks can be found on the CPC homepage National Weather Service Charleston, WV Image Caption: Climate Prediction Center Seasonal Drought Outlook Released October 17 , 2024 Valid October 17, 2024 - January 31, 2024 Main Takeaways Updated outlook favors drought remaining but improving through January across WV lowlands and southeast OH but ends elsewhere